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Thanks. I think the main hope for Cloudy Dreamers is that this is merely Fox Norton’s prep race for the Tingle Creek or FN doesn’t like the conditions. Special Tiara’s trainer seems quite bullish in the Racing Post but as you say the evidence from past seasons is against him.
Still loving this thread. As ever, I find the reasoning more interesting than the pricing (which I often find difficult to achieve). Fox Norton looks not to be great value but Special Tiara looks better at 15/2 to me than Cloudy Dream, who appears to have been entered as an afterthought.
Anyway, one thing I have been puzzling over lately is how much to allow for differential ratings. On the flat a 5 pound difference in say Timeform rating is significant but over jumps not so much. On the official ratings Fox Norton is 169, Special Tiara 165 and Cloudy Dream 159 with a three pound allowance versus the other two, so effectively 162. And the other horses aren’t a long way away. Given the random factors in jumps racing it is hard to see Fox Norton as odds on.
I suppose we might say Fox Norton and Cloudy Dream are progressive, so give them 5 pounds each. But that still leaves Special Tiara best value at the odds.
12/1 now with Paddy Power but strangely nobody else seems to be offering anything at present.
I used to think that going to the course enabled one to use bookmakers in the ring to get the best prices. Sadly it doesn’t seem to work like that now. Bookies appear to be slaves to the machine, with a near homogeneous product. It would surely make more sense for these people to amalgamate. Why have twenty joints with near identical prices, employing 40 people, and paying lots of course fees, often standing around doing very little, when you could have just one kiosk offering exchange prices for a small commission?
On the issue of horses not running to form:
What proportion of horses are non-triers and/or unfit, rather than genuinely trying but not repeating past form?
What can be done about it?
How can we predict if a horse will run to form?There is a £93000 rollover for the tote trifecta in this race today. This is much better value than the tricast, especially if you fancy an outsider to finish in the first three.
Toals offer money back if second to an Irish trained winner. Worth considering as EOD and UDS both Irish trained.
It seems like little has changed from old days. Bookmakers win when the favourite loses and vice versa. I suppose they diversify their risk over several races. However, given they are all linked to a machine, they also have the opportunity to lock in profits at negligible cost by laying off on an exchange. It’s a puzzle why they don’t do this more. Maybe they like the thrill of the gamble just like punters.
Coral won
https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/search-judgments/judgment?id=c72b2da7-8980-69d2-b500-ff0000d74aa7
I haven’t read it all in detail but basically the judge says the 2500-1 odds meant the bet should be defined as Coral intended and the punter would have known this.
I find this a rather annoying and depressing view, and it sets a dangerous precedent for punters.
That’s right but once you have entered at the start, it only costs £685 to stay in at the 5 day stage, which is loose change for rich owners.
Personally I think multiple entries should be discouraged. Maybe they should say the second and third entries for a horse cost more, or have a penalty for pulling out late unless the horse is physically unable to compete.
I found this on the internet:
How much does it cost to enter a horse for a race at the Cheltenham festival?
Cost to enter a horse in a race
Answer provided by British Horseracing Association
Charges vary between races, I have set out below the charges incurred for an entry in The Gold Cup as a rough guide. Please note these charges may change for next years’ race.
Cheltenham 13/3/15
THE BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1) (Grade 1)
Entry 06/01/15 £685.00
Supplementary Entry 07/03/15 £27500.00
1st Scratching 10/02/15 £1370.00
5 Day 07/03/15 £685.00
4 Day 08/03/15 £0.00
Declaration 11/03/15 £0.00
So it looks like it costs nothing to keep an entry after the 5 day stage and not a lot before then. But the info is a bit out of date.
Market movements today strongly suggest EOD is going for the Ryanair. I’m not sure if it’s been announced formally. However, it is logical given Outlander appears to be about as good as EOD but with fewer stamina doubts so this way they have chances in both races. Outlander seems to have received few tips or favourable comments but appears to be in with a shout for the GC on form not too far below the market leaders.
Having done some research it looks like it wouldn’t cost much to keep the GC entry so I expect they will keep that option open just in case.
There is an intriguing suggestion from Eddie O’Leary that Empire of Dirt might run in the Gold Cup if he fell in the Ryanair. See Racing Post today.
I haven’t seen this happen before. I know horses can run in more than one race at the festival but my guess is that if EOD is aimed at the Ryanair the owners won’t want to bother entering the Gold Cup. Presumably it costs a bit to retain the GC entry and wouldn’t be worth it on the off chance of an early and non-damaging fall the day before.
I must say I find the entry system rather confusing. If anyone can give a data source and/or tell me how much it will cost the O’Learys to keep the GC option open rather than lapsing it that would be good to know.
The issue with Empire of Dirt is that he might run in the Gold Cup. He is around 50 on Betfair for the Gold Cup. So I reckon about a 1 in 3 chance he will go there and start at say 15/1. Best odds NRNB for the Ryanair of 5/1 look about right and better than 6/1 ante post. TimeForm like Sub Lieutenant and at the odds 12/1 seems worth a go.
