Ginger's Jumpers

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This topic contains 446 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by  Istabraq 5 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #1326193
    Gingertipster
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    3:00 Wincanton Elite Hurdle:
    66 points @ 4/1 (B365) Charbel (min 7/2)
    savers:
    16 points @ 5/1 (B365) London Prize (min 9/2)
    14 points @ 6/1 (FD) Flying Tiger (min 11/2)

    I like Lough Derg Spirit as a horse but looks very short here. Although has scope for furter improvement form of Musselborough win – beating Peter The Mayo Man 2 1/2 lengths in reciept of 3 lbs – won’t be good enough here. I rate Charbel, London Prize and Flying Tiger as all having better chances. Charbel is a horse I love, very genuine, well handicapped on chase form, has a good record fresh and at this time of year and trainer in brilliant form. Hasn’t run on very soft ground for a long time, but impressive when doing so. Hopefully won’t get in to a pace duel with LDS.
    London Prize won a big hurdles handicap and runner-up in the Ces on the flat. Be surprising if he doesn’t improve again over obsticles. Just have a slight concern over both going and whether he has the pace for this. Good win to run ratio, unlike Zubayer. Nicholls horse doesn’t win very often for one of his ability; seconditus. Both he and Lough Derg Spirit imo far from certain to be as effective if the expected rain sweeps through.
    Melodic Rendezvous needs very soft ground and might get it if the forecast is correct. May have his favourite course but age is against him. Surely on the downgrade? Only good run last term 2 1/4 lengths 2nd. Has a chance if that form can be believed; however, imo flattered after getting a soft lead on 2016 reappearance. That’s highly unlikely tomorrow with both Lough Derg Spirit and Charbel in the field.
    Flying Tiger won a Fred Winter on goodish ground off a 7 lbs lower mark than here. Has soft ground form too, including a promising 5th in a Group 3 on the flat.
    Coer De Lion‘s chance probably relies on picking up the pieces if others go off too fast, coming through exhausted horses in a stamina test. Might be one to play only in running if there’s a pace burn out.

    value is everything
    #1326308
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    3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
    38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)

    38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)

    20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Final Nudge (min 16/1)

    Couple of savers:
    9 points @ 12/1 (WH) Fletcher’s Flyer (min 12/1)
    9 points @ 12/1 Hallan Harri (min 11/1)

    On first look this looks extremely open. But although there isn’t much between them all on recent form some have a much better and some a much worse chance purely because of scope for improvement. When half of the field could easily show improvement it’s long odds-on at least one actually will. That means the other half (of exposed looking individuals) are very much up against it. I’d be against the likes of Theatre Guide, Fox Appeal, Alfie Spinner, Fact Of The Matter, Monte Royale and Tempestatefloresco for that reason alone. Then there’s “trainer form”, a minus for Double Shuffle and Relentless Dreamer; a plus for Yala Enki, Fletcher’s Flyer, Vic De Tounzaine, Final Nudge, Alfie Spinner, and Hallan Harri. Temperament is also against Fox Appeal (doesn’t win and finds nowt) and Pilgrim’s Bay (puts it all in one run in 10). Going looks to have changed the race, original market favourites Present Man and Southfield Theatre still have a chance but not anywhere near the chance they did a couple of days ago. Horses not only need to act on the surface, it also changes stamina requirements. Under good or good-soft conditions around Wincanton it would favour those effective from 2m6f to 3m1f. Where as on soft or even heavy the likes of Yala Enki, Vic De Tounzaine, Final Nudge, Fletcher’s Flyer, Hellan Harri, Southfield Royale and Mr Mix come in to it. The last two named are the ones I’ve taken a chance by leaving out. Mr Mix could yet improve a lot, but sometimes doesn’t find a great deal under pressure and (so far) jumping hasn’t been great. Not ideal for a big field like this. Southfield Royale is a handicap certainty on splitting Tea For Two and Native River in the 2015 Kauto Star. Those two have improved since, but it’s still good form from Southfield Royale. Just been very disappointing last season and if he was thought back to his best connections wouldn’t allow him to be 18/1; Market is telling you something here. If fit and well would be half those odds. In a strange way, if he shortens up 12/1 might be better “value” than the current 18/1.
    If Yala Enki can get to the front (there are other front runners) has a great chance. If surrounded by horses early I’ll think about getting out of the bet. Handicapper seems to let winners of good races at smaller tracks (Kelso) in better than he should. Ground looks to be coming right. Latter comment goes for stable companion Vic De Tounzaine too. Although he won’t be seen early, a fast pace will suit him. Venittia’s first winner of the season last time out, only just getting up but second has franked the form since. VDT can improve, stable in good form this week. Ditto Harry Fry. Fletcher’s Flyer is an odd one, tends to travel kindly in his races but stays really well. Reason why he’s not a main bet is imo sometimes doesn’t find much off the bridle. Reynoldstown 3rd was a good run on “form”, but looked winner turning in. That said, often such horses are best to catch fresh/first time out. Final Nudge won first time up last season and could be significantly higher in the handicap had he stood up four out in Midlands National. Rain has more than doubled his chance.
    Hallan Harri wasn’t the best Bet365 winner you’ll see off 9-10, a mark of 126. Now only 4 lbs higher and now has the excellent James Bowen claiming 7 lbs off. Sandown was on much firmer, but has form on very soft and ground brings his stamina in to play. Would’ve been a main bet but am concerned his all the way success flatters him and probably won’t be as easy to make all here.

    value is everything
    #1326368
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    Arrrrrrrrrrrgh! So close and yet so far.

    Diminishing head away from an individual 20/1 winner. If only Leighton had tackled Bryoney earlier. Winner wasn’t sure to stay on that ground, Final Nudge stays a lot further. Had he made it an even greater test of stamina by tackling the winner earlier imo would’ve made the difference between winning and losing.

    That said, Bryoney Frost deserved to win. Having jumped brilliantly and would’ve been easy to have gone on too soon. Allowed others to go on when they wanted whilst keeping with a view of the front – as suits the horse. Then holding her own in the finish against a strong established jockey. Looks already better than her father.

    Lost -114 points on the race/day instead of +300 up. :cry:

    Broke even in the 3:00 with saver London Prize winning. On a great day for Ian Williams, London Prize won well, O’Brien making it in to a stamina test. Could do even better over further. Lough Derg Spirit ran well, improved a bit. Flying Tiger ran well too, travelled well for a long way. Charbel strong in the market early, drifted badly late on and knew my fate with the main bet. May be either needs to lead or something wrong on course – did he sweat up? Doubt it was as simple as going.

    value is everything
    #1326756
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    Betvictor Gold Cup:

    Jamie Moore is good, but Noel Fehily is better. Kerry Lee is good but am a great fan of Harry Fry. He’s also in great form at the moment. Kylemore Lough already looks well handicapped on his 2 3/4 lengths Cheltenham 5th to Frodon in the Caspian caviar, off a 2 lbs higher mark than here. Usually a good jumper and without uncharesteristic late errors that day imo would’ve won. Can improve on even that form under the new team. I know he’s favourite, but can see Kylemore Lough starting a lot shorter than 7/1.

    56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)

    value is everything
    #1327018
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    3:35 Cheltenham:
    69 points @ 11/4 (FD) Vision Des Flos (min 5/2)
    62 points @ 100/30 (Boyle) On The Blind Side (min 3/1)

    value is everything
    #1327019
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    3:35 Cheltenham:
    69 points @ 11/4 (FD) Vision Des Flos (min 5/2)
    62 points @ 100/30 (Boyle) On The Blind Side (min 3/1)

    Basically taken evens one of the two will win. They seem to be the two unexposed “could be anything”s in the field.

    value is everything
    #1327032
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    1:50 Cheltenham:
    42 points @ 8/1 (Boyle) Shanahans Turn (min 13/2)
    57 points @ 3/1 (L) Exitas (min 11/4)
    saver:
    29 points @ 7/2 (B365) Kapstadt (min 7/2)

    (You’ll probably get bigger than 8/1, 3/1 and 7/2 in the morning).

    value is everything
    #1327169
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    With BOG on On The Blind Side (9/2 winner) makes a profit of +82 points on the day

    value is everything
    #1327172

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    He got up to win very well I thought :good:

    #1327173
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    Betvictor Gold Cup:

    Jamie Moore is good, but Noel Fehily is better. Kerry Lee is good but am a great fan of Harry Fry. He’s also in great form at the moment. Kylemore Lough already looks well handicapped on his 2 3/4 lengths Cheltenham 5th to Frodon in the Caspian caviar, off a 2 lbs higher mark than here. Usually a good jumper and without uncharesteristic late errors that day imo would’ve won. Can improve on even that form under the new team. I know he’s favourite, but can see Kylemore Lough starting a lot shorter than 7/1.

    56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)

    26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)

    value is everything
    #1327187
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    56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)

    26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
    15 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Aqua Dude (min 18/1)

    value is everything
    #1327189
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    56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)

    26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
    15 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Aqua Dude (min 18/1)

    couple of savers:
    11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Romain De Senam (min 11/1)
    11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Ballyalton (min 11/1)
    one more “main” bet to come in this race

    value is everything
    #1327190
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    56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)

    26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
    15 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Aqua Dude (min 18/1)

    couple of savers:
    11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Romain De Senam (min 11/1)
    11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Ballyalton (min 11/1)

    13 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Guitar Pete (min 18/1)

    value is everything
    #1327205
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    1:50 Cheltenham:
    25 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Shotgun Paddy (min 10/1)
    28 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Perfect Candidate (min 17/2)

    value is everything
    #1327241
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    1:50 Cheltenham:
    25 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Shotgun Paddy (min 10/1)
    28 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Perfect Candidate (min 17/2)

    Three Faces West is a horse I really like, genuine front runner. But after a year off will keep an eye on the market. At the moment is on the drift which might imply is going to need it. Profile suggests he goes better after a run anyway.
    Although Second favourite (Gold Cup placed) Minella Rocco is a bit of a Cheltenham specialist also seems to keep his best for the Spring in the last couple of seasons. Ditto the last comment for dual Scottish National winner Vicente.
    Sizing Codelco was pulled up on reappearance so needs to improve a lot on that run. Stable is in better form but is 8 lbs higher than winning final start of last season. Benbens should’ve had 9-9, so effectively running off 140. Only placed in Scottish National and Bet365 Gold Cup off 137 and 135 and needs to take a step forward from reappearance when 30 lengths behind winner.
    Doing Fine did fine last time out when 6 lengths 3rd and returns to the same course and distance as last victory in April. Stable is struggling a bit for form at the moment.
    Premier Bond is interesting for Nicky Henderson. Disappointed in Scottish National, but earlier stayed on up the hill to be 1 1/2 lengths 3rd in the Kim Muir. Only a 3 lb higher mark here. 6/1 looks a fair enough price.
    Shotgun Paddy may look out of it; another one off an effective mark of 140. But has won off bigger in the past, sems to run/jump better fresh nowadays. Three Faces West is the probable front runner, but Shotgun Paddy should be able to get a nice view of his fences and Emma Lavelle is in good form. Times yesterday suggested the ground nearer soft than good which should suit this stayer. 14/1 looks enormous.
    So too does 12/1 Perfect Candidate. Only 10th on reappearance but that’s just him. Importantly usually comes on a good deal for a run. Jumps well and – unlike some here – loves his racing. May be a 10 year old but was better than ever last season. Won a veteran’s chase by 5 lengths and now on a mark just 2 lbs higher. Fergal O’Brien has been in good form in recent weeks.

    Perfect Candidate and Shotgun Paddy look the perfect each way bets in a race that might pay to take on the favourites.

    value is everything
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