Ginger's Jumpers

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  • #1324179
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    Been doing a few DLAP threads for the big Flat meetings this year, which have generally done fairly well. Now time I got back to the old style jumping thread.

    How I bet:
    My threads look for value bets. “Value” as in available at a price I believe under-estimates its chance of winning. Any horse can be considered value, even an odds-on shot. I don’t put up many individual horses @ odds-on, although often do more than one selection in a race that can add up to in effect an odds-on bet.
    Just because one selection is considered value does not mean it will be my only selection in a race. Can have two, three or four+ selections in big fields if believing them value. Although I may have one or two main bets on what I consider the best value, with one or two savers on those believed lesser value. Beauty of having more than one bet is am not put off backing outsiders. 20/1 individual winners are not unusual and twice on these pages put up tips in excess of 100/1. That said, sometimes I’ll ignore the lesser value horses altogether if one or two are believed absolutely outstanding value and/or each way terms for the main bet/s is/are very favourable.

    My stakes try to maximise profits. Taking account of how much chance I believe the horse has of winning, together with how much value I believe is in the bet.

    Main bet stakes are based on this calculation:
    My idea of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
    Minus the percentage of the odds available…
    Times that figure by 7…
    Plus my idea of the horse’s percentage chance of winning.

    So a horse that I believe is a 25% (fair 3/1) chance available @ 9/2 (18.2%):
    25 – 18.2 = 6.8
    6.8 X 7 = 47.6
    47.6 + 25 = 72.6 rounded up to 73
    Stake is 73 points @ 9/2
    If not wanting to be so precise you could call it 75.

    Each way bets are 0.67 X what would be the win bet. In this case:
    0.67 X 73 = 48.91 rounded up to 49
    Stake is 49 points each way @ 9/2 (98 in all) instead of 73 to win.
    Again, you could up it to 50 points each way if not wanting to be so precise.

    If choosing to follow my tips with my staking plan then please bet within your own means. Although I fully expect this thread to make an overall profit, any punter no matter how successful can go through a long losing run/s which can strike at any point.

    Stakes per race usually add up to between 80 and 125 points. Sometimes below 80, occasionally more than 125 points; seldom beyond 150. Once a year around 200 in the Grand National. So if you’re used to staking around £80 to £125 in a race, with the odd £150 and £200 race, then I’d adise working stakes out to £1 a point.
    If you’re used to working with £10 to £12 per race with the odd £15 or £20 race, then I’d advise working stakes out to 10 pence a point… and so on.

    value is everything
    #1324693
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2571

    I know you don’t believe in luck Ginger so instead I will wish you logical outcomes! Before I joined TRF I just tried to pick winners plus a scattering of lottery-ticket 100-1 shots with no notion of value. You and various other posters have helped me a lot…I still have weakness for some poor-value bets but at least now I know the mistakes I am making a bit better. Looking forward to reading this thread :good:

    #1324830
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    I know you don’t believe in luck Ginger so instead I will wish you logical outcomes! Before I joined TRF I just tried to pick winners plus a scattering of lottery-ticket 100-1 shots with no notion of value. You and various other posters have helped me a lot…I still have weakness for some poor-value bets but at least now I know the mistakes I am making a bit better. Looking forward to reading this thread :good:

    Thanks GAG,
    We all have a “weakness” from time to time.
    Nicely put, “Logical outcomes” sounds good to me. :yes:

    value is everything
    #1324831
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 21080

    I would have said
    ‘Break a leg’……. :rose:

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1324871
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    I’ve backed Lil Rockafella at a massive price for the Stayers Hurdle.
    Hopefully Lil can start the season on a high. Judged by his placed effort in last season’s Stayers/World Hurdle is the one to beat here. Although that run is a bit of a standout performance at the moment, I see no reason why he’s flattered by that. Trainer in excellent form. With unfashionable trainer and jockey against a second favourite Nicholls horse and Twister third fav, it’s possible the Neil King horse will go out even further, but 7/4 is good enough for me.

    Petit Zig has some good efforts to his name, 1 1/2 lengths 2nd to Lami Surge at Sandown. But he’s inconsistent, sometimes looks temperamental, doesn’t win as one of his ability should and is up against one as genuine as they come.

    Wholestone ran well enough on reappearance and may have fitness on his side, but has a lot to find to beat a top form Lil Rockafella, especially giving him 2 lbs. May well improve on the form that saw him 7 1/2 lengths 3rd in the Albert Bartlett, but has to find a lot to beat a top form favourite and at the moment isn’t far in front of the others either.

    I want to be against both Petit Zig and Wholestone at these prices.

    Fountain’s Windfall is interesting @ around 14/1. Novice who’s won his last three; including final run last season, all the way 8 lengths winner of the big Aintree 3m handicap from a mark of 137 on goodish ground. Has form on soft too and may well lead again, but could be taken on here.

    Gayebury won a Perth Listed novice in April, but that looks more his level.

    Missed Approach hasn’t run over hurdles since April 2016, 3 lengths 2nd in an Ayr handicap. Doesn’t have the scope for improvement that most here do and seems best racing from the front. Not sure to get it here.

    One I like at a big price is Colin’s Sister. 9 lengths winner of a Grade 2 mares novice over 2m4f last February. Way she finishes suggests 3 miles should suit and 16/1 imo under estimates her chance.

    2:40 Wetherby:
    81 points @ 7/4 Lil Rockafella (min 13/8)
    25 poits @ 16/1 Colin’s Sister (min 13/1)
    saver:
    8 points @ 14/1 Fountain’s Windfall (min 13/1)

    value is everything
    #1324879
    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 315

    Hi GT. It’s great to see you giving us the privilege of your selections once again. All the best for the forthcoming season :good:

    #1324889
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    Hate to say this as he’s one of my favourite horses of recent years, but I want to be against Cue Card in the Charlie Hall. Not at his best first time out in this last year and even the previous year (when winning) nowhere near the form he produced to win the Betfair second time up. If winning any Grade 1 race this term I think it’ll be the latter race. Now 11 and probably takes a run to get him fit.

    Coneygree should be spot on, got ready for an early season race in Ireland but did not take part. Although injury prone these days has a really good record fresh. Close third to Sizing John in Punchestown Gold Cup in April suggests he’s as good as ever. There are other front runners in the field though. Justifiably favourite, just a little too short to make him the main bet.

    Bristol De Mai has a chance at his best, but possibly at his best from the front. Unlikely to get it with Coneygree, Village Vic and Double Shuffle in the field. I prefer stable companion Blaklion, who would’ve gone close in the Grand National had he not pulled too hard. Before that a good second off a mark of 152 in Haydock’s Grand National Trial, some 18 lengths clear of the third. Now 6 lbs better off with winner Vieux Lion Rouge for 3 1/4 lengths. That said, the Pipe horse has a particularly good record fresh. Twiston-Davis stable is in good form. Blaklion will need a test of stamina at this trip, but with should get it here.

    Similar story with Definitely Red‘s stamina too. Improved performance when 14 lengths clear in Grimthorpe off 149, gives him a chance here. Pulled up when hampered in Grand National afterwards. Won first time up last year so should be fit enough.

    Double Shuffle ran well enough at Chepstow on reappearance, but in truth doesn’t look up to this class and may be at his very best right-handed.

    Shantou Flyer won a good Cheltenham handicap on first day of the year on first start for Rebecca Curtis. Now has first run for Richard Hobson. Asking a lot in this grade. 15 lengths to make up on Cue Card from Ascot Chase and only 2 lbs better off.

    Village Vic is normally a bold jumping front runner and Cheltenham specialist. May not get his own way here and fall last time might not have done his confidence any good.

    Vigilio was 18+ lengths behind Might Bite and Whisper before winning an Aintree handicap in May. Doesn’t look up to this class.

    3:15 Wetherby:
    36 points @ 10/1 Blaklion (min 8/1)
    30 points @ 8/1 Definitely Red (min 15/2)
    21 points @ 25/1 Vieux Lion Rouge (min 20/1)
    saver:
    40 points @ 9/4 Coneygree (min 2/1)

    value is everything
    #1324893
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16235

    Good luck with the thread GT :good:

    #1325063
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4141

    Best of luck Mark!! You bash those bookies every year and this year will be no different. Will pop in at weekends to see what you’re on.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1325640
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    Thanks, Nathan, Mtoto, VTC and Joni.
    Not a bad start:

    2:40 Wetherby:
    81 points @ 7/4 Lil Rockafella (min 13/8) 3rd
    25 points @ 16/1 Colin’s Sister (min 13/1) 1st Return 425
    saver:
    8 points @ 14/1 Fountain’s Windfall (min 13/1)

    3:15 Wetherby:
    36 points @ 10/1 Blaklion (min 8/1) 2nd
    30 points @ 8/1 Definitely Red (min 15/2) 3rd
    21 points @ 25/1 Vieux Lion Rouge (min 20/1) 4th
    saver:
    40 points @ 9/4 Coneygree (min 2/1) PU

    Stakes 241
    Return 425
    Profit +184 points

    value is everything
    #1326090
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
    38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)

    value is everything
    #1326091
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
    38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)

    38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)

    value is everything
    #1326107
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
    38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)

    38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)

    20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Final Nudge (min 16/1)

    value is everything
    #1326109
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
    38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)

    38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)

    20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Final Nudge (min 16/1)

    Couple of savers:
    9 points @ 12/1 (WH) Fletcher’s Flyer (min 12/1)
    9 points @ 12/1 Hallan Harri (min 11/1)

    value is everything
    #1326117
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    3:00 Wincanton Elite Hurdle:
    66 points @ 4/1 (B365) Charbel (min 7/2)
    savers:
    16 points @ 5/1 (B365) London Prize (min 9/2)
    14 points @ 6/1 (FD) Flying Tiger (min 11/2)

    value is everything
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