Midlands National 2017

Takes place on the Saturday after Cheltenham, and tends to get overlooked a bit until the day of the race, understandably, but still worth a look in case anything stands out.

I thought I had cracked it last year when Irish Challanger Mad Brian, cruised into contention hitting the straight, but with him not long back from injury, he just hit the wall, and emptied quickly. I kept him onside though after that, a decision which cost me a few quid. I left him last time though, even though 20’s was available in the morning, and I don’t have to tell you what happened. It’s always risky betting these “cliff” horses, but with Brian, I’m willing to give him one more chance. Unlike last year, he’s had a full season behind him, and with that win over hurdles last time, there’s no question marks around his wellbeing this time. He’s got plenty of other runs which would give him a chance here, and he’ll surely be a few pounds lower as well. Strong fancy, and I like the 16’s, but I’ll hold fire until see whether or not he takes up his entry in The Leinster National at Naas.

Irish Horses have a very decent record in this, and Bonny Kate is an eyecatching entry, she’s surely going to land one of these races at some point, but she’s also in at Naas, not to mention more than one entry at Cheltenham. I just wonder how significant it is that Dare to Endeavour doesn’t hold an entry at Naas, and he has the look of a horse who will definitely run here. Tipped up in The Becher, but in that race last season he ran a blinder, so the journey shouldn’t pose any problems. I went for him in The Munster National this season, and after my initial disappointment with him that day, on reflection it doesn’t look too bad. The winner that day, Tiger Roll, looked unstoppable, while Stellar Notion has since franked the form, and the other placed horses that day, Kylecrue & Rightville Boy, were on the top of their game. He’s definitely going to be on my side, and I’m not waiting for that 25’s to disappear. Another standing dish on these shores for this type of prize is Portrait King, and I’d expect to see some supoort on here for him. Support that would be very much justified.

One horse who I have bet though is Ballynagour. He was a dark horse of mine for The Grand National last year, and I only deserted him at the eleventh hour. I had a few nervy moments during the race, as despite the unsuitable ground, he really took to it, and was fairly lobbing along, before a relatively soft unseat at the big open ditch. He then went on to run a huge race at this track in The Summer Cup off of 152, finishing runner up, with a very competitive field behind him, before a similar fate awaited him, this time off of 157, in the equally competitive Summer Plate, behind Long House Hall. I’m a big fan of Long House Hall, and that form looks quite strong to me. His form since then though has tailed off dramatically, with 3 P’s to his name, but as a result, he is now on 148, and with Spring approaching, and, more interestingly, The National Weights already framed, then he’s very much one of interest to me in the coming weeks. He’s as low as 16’s for this with Betfred, but Paddy Power & Sportsbook go 50’s, which is absolutely massive, and despite those P’s, I’m having a go

Another from the Pipe yard who’s worth a second look is Gevrey Chambertin. In the doldrums for a while, but a former Fixed Brush Hurdle winner, and he’s got another big win in him somewhere I’m sure. I had him last week in The Eider as my #2 at very big odds, and he was still there when unseating 4 or 5 out. It was a hard one to take, and although opinions would be divided on this, I reckon he would would have won. He’s more realistically priced for this at 16’s, and I’ll wait to see how the field looks on the day before I get involved, but he’s certainly on the radar. Pipe also has Father Edward and Top Wood in the line up, along with Doctor Harper and What A Moment, 2 horses who’s #1 priority is surely The Festival. I’ve bet Top Wood more than once, and he was desperately unlucky in The Kim Muir & Scottish National last year. You could make a case that he would have won both races, I’m certainly of the opinion that he would have won at Ayr for sure, but I suppose jumping is the name of the game. He also looked the winner at Cheltenham in November, before being brought down, so he deserves some compensation. Definitely against him are his subsequent runs since that day in November, where he has looked potentially regressive, but if he isn’t on the downgrade, then a combination of the spring air, and also being seriously well handicapped, could bring him right into this, for a trainer who clearly takes this race seriously.

I’ve banged the drum for Alfie Spinner a few times on here this season, and he justified that faith with a nice win a few weeks back. Not overly impressive last time at Carlisle, but he still looks to have life in him, and not harshly treated. He could be a danger, despite his advancing years. Kerry Lee usually has a bumper entry for these marathons, but interesting that only Alfie & Krackatoa King are in contention for this.

If I’m looking at Mad Brian, then BigG will be looking at last years 3rd Cogry, so I’ll leave Graham to discuss him as I’m sure he’ll be very interested in him.

In front of Cogry last year was Firebird Flyer, and though he’ll clearly see this out, he was a very fortunate winner, after Golden Chieftain came down at the last with the race won. He’s not done much since, and though he’ll run here off the same mark this time around, I think a place at best awaits. Back in 4th was Spookydooky, and he looks well treated on that run, as he’ll come here 10 lbs lower this time around. He ran a very promising race last time over an extreme trip at Exeter, so he’s coming here off the back of his best run for a while, and with that swing in the weights, then the 16’s looks very fair. He’s not one to dismiss lightly.

Others who catch the eye, include recent marathon winners Mysteree, Kingswell Theatre & Dancing Shadow, and although the latter would be shortlist material, it was mentioned that his main target would be Ayr.

No big race discussion from me would be complete without my old friends, Houblon Des Obeaux, Rigadin De Beauchene, and Emperors Choice getting a mention, and no different this time around. All 3 look well handicapped, and with similar profiles, I’m struggling to split them. After his recent return to form, Emperors might just be the call, but with all 3 having given me decent paydays in the past, I’ll hold fire until the day, and no doubt miss out on few points. All three more than capable of landing this, based on what we’ve seen this year, and I’ll surely have one of them on the day.

I’m only the scratching the surface of the entries here, and my eye is also drawn to the likes of Flintham, and Theatrical Star, who are both fairly priced at 16’s and 25’s, and who both, on another day, I would be very keen on, but with Cheltenham looming, that’s enough to run the rule over, for now.

That Leinster National entry then is causing me problems with Mad Brian, but I’ll leave him for now, and risk missing the 16’s, but I think it makes sense to wait.

For now, my #1 then is Ballynagour, and want Dare to Endeavour on side too.

Ballynagour 50’s ew
Dare to Endeavour 25’s ew

GL