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Well, 2kg or 4 and a half pounds is quite a lot. Given she is a competent jockey that makes her rides about 4 lengths well in over longer distances. Enough to about double the chance of winning a handicap I would say. Highly significant in my view and it should have a big impact on betting odds.
Anyway, it has set me thinking on the relative merits of different jockeys. Is say Ryan Moore worth 2 pounds more than the average jockey? I presume some organisation like Timeform ranks jockeys but I haven’t seen it reduced to a weight differential. Or maybe it’s a case that most of the time most jockeys perform about the same but occasionally the extra skill of the best ones pays off. So it would amount to an odds reduction rather than a weight allowance.
Jockey skill is such a hard thing to measure. What’s a good pair of hands worth on a horse which normally pulls? What is Cauthen-like pace judgement worth? What’s it worth to have the rare Piggott-like ability of getting horses to ‘run for you’?
And on the flat, what’s it worth to have someone with very high level anticipation skills that will prevent say 99% of your selections meeting trouble in running?
Over fences, what’s the value of those who see a stride almost every time?
It would make an interesting conversation in the company of experienced jockeys.
I did a check on this last February, by taking her distances beaten in the UK, then subtracting the 2kg allowance using the BHA scale at each distance.
Of course there are many other factors involved in how much a horse is beaten by in any given race besides weight, but it shows in a general sense that Hayley would be significantly advantaged by the French allowance.
Given the greater prizemoney and her ability, its a no-brainer she’s heading to France imo.
Alan Potts in one of his books describes a certain jockey as ‘the ten pound penalty’, understandably not naming him. I’d appreciate a private message if anyone knows to which jockey he was referring.
Alan Potts in one of his books describes a certain jockey as ‘the ten pound penalty’, understandably not naming him. I’d appreciate a private message if anyone knows to which jockey he was referring.
Luke Harvey, it was common knowledge Tim, Luke thought it was nearer 14lbs.
If I had a horse suitable for any of the big handicaps in France I’d be looking to run and put either Turner or Gordon up.
Is this allowance over jumps also? Katie Walsh,Rachel Blackmore and Nina when she comes back could make serious hay over there if they do
Is Nina’s Sister in law and brother still over there training?<p abp=”226″>Alan Potts in one of his books describes a certain jockey as ‘the ten pound penalty’, understandably not naming him. I’d appreciate a private message if anyone knows to which jockey he was referring.
Several of them.
I’ve never quite understood why so many tipsters make a selection based on the claim of an apprentice. Other than in the case of exceptional apprentices, the golden rule should be that they’re getting their allowance because they haven’t scaled the heights yet.
Is this allowance over jumps also? Katie Walsh,Rachel Blackmore and Nina when she comes back could make serious hay over there if they do
Yes it is but has similar restriction to the flat. Hayley has a ride claiming the allowance in a 30 grand handicap at Deauville today but the other 100 grand handicap on the card doesn’t qualify as it is a Quinte + handicap.
… I presume some organisation like Timeform ranks jockeys but I haven’t seen it reduced to a weight differential…
John Whitley of Racing Research has been doing that for years, his methodology apparently more recently having been picked up by Timeform:
https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/jockey-ratings-who-is-the-best-jockey.html
I see Hayley rode in a 3yo handicap at Deauville yesterday, well down the field at an SP of 67/10. Anyone know what source the RP uses for its French results?
Well worth keeping an eye on her rides over there imo.
Kasparov, I used Proform for the query. Have used it for many years now, and would recommend it.
Thumbs up H Turner gets going for real with the advantage.
, thanks Yeats. And fully agree on using both G & T in ‘les ‘andicaps français’
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