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Just thought I would ask the forums opinion regarding the magic word value.
The reason I am asking is because I have just had a SERIOUS bet on Faugheen to beat Arctic Fire and got odds of 1/2.
I considered this value because if Faugheen was a non runner then Arctic Fire wouldn’t be anything like a one to two shot. I know they had to jump round but I thought this bet was stealing money.
I am not normally a favourite backer and certainly not an odds on punter so this must have been a hell of a bet for me to back it!!Opinions on this would be greatly appreciated
Just thought I would ask the forums opinion regarding the magic word value.
The reason I am asking is because I have just had a SERIOUS bet on Faugheen to beat Arctic Fire and got odds of 1/2.
I considered this value because if Faugheen was a non runner then Arctic Fire wouldn’t be anything like a one to two shot. I know they had to jump round but I thought this bet was stealing money.
I am not normally a favourite backer and certainly not an odds on punter so this must have been a hell of a bet for me to back it!!Opinions on this would be greatly appreciated
At level stakes punters need to win more than 66.67% of their bets @ 1/2 to make a profit. Therefore, a 1/2 shot is a good bet only if the punter believes it has a better than 70% chance of winning (66.67% + a margin for error). 1/2 = 66.67%, 2/1 = 33.33%, 9/1 = 10%, 16/1 = 5.9%, 25/1 = 3.85%, 100/1 = 1%. Every horse can be value whether 1/2 or 100/1. Of course each individual punter will have a different opinion of what is and is not value; and only punters who are good at evaluating form in to chance will show a profit/bet on the right horses.
“value is everything”.
Value Is EverythingSince Faugheen was 1/6 to win the race, 1/2 to beat Arctic Fire is a fantastic bet. Well done for finding it.
couldn’t have been 1/2 to beat his main rival when he is 1/6 to win the race against only 2 other plodders. He would have (or should have been shorter than 1/6 to beat Arctic Fire – price to win the race take away the % on the 2 rags) ie he was 1/6 to beat Arctic Fire + the other 2
Well done if you found that somewhere ,but must be bookmaker error, or a promotional offer which normally only allows limited stakes on as introductory offer.
I assumed it was a forecast. Raymo said “I know they had to jump round”, which wouldn’t have been the case in a straight match bet.
The CSF paid 1.50, which is exactly the same as 1/2, but the difference with the odds is that you knew what you were getting beforehand, whereas the forecast might have been less (or more) than the odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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