- This topic has 25 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
I’ve often wondered how much a pillar to post winner sacrifices by not ‘drafting’ in the pack. Drafting in cycling saves a significant amount of energy, and the same must apply in horse racing. But I wondered to what extent and was about to ask the wise folks on here…then I remembered Google is your friend and I found this article (http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/8/4/678), from which this is an extract
Racing competitors gain an advantage from drafting. The metabolic power required to overcome aerodynamic drag is significant (17% of total mechanical power), and the difference in average speed between first place and fifth place (no prize money) is about 2 per cent (figure 1c). This could be accounted for by a 13 per cent reduction in aerodynamic drag. For a horse that drafts for 75 per cent of a race, this effect is worth three to four finish places (figure 1c).
Doubtless Prufrock will have thoughts on this if he happens across this thread.
So that’s why Faugheen didn’t win by two furlongs at Cheltenham……
Interesting post Joe, 13% is some reduction but in a slowly run race what advantage pull back would the front runner have given it’s head start and kick for home first?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Fair point, Nathan. It would still suffer the effect of no relief from drag, but that might easily be overcome by a tactical move at the right time. There’s also the argument that front-runners might fare worse from being held up, simply due to their characters – that’s covered in the full article on that link.
I’ve often wondered how much a pillar to post winner sacrifices by not ‘drafting’ in the pack. Drafting in cycling saves a significant amount of energy, and the same must apply in horse racing. But I wondered to what extent and was about to ask the wise folks on here…then I remembered Google is your friend and I found this article (http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/8/4/678), from which this is an extract
Racing competitors gain an advantage from drafting. The metabolic power required to overcome aerodynamic drag is significant (17% of total mechanical power), and the difference in average speed between first place and fifth place (no prize money) is about 2 per cent (figure 1c). This could be accounted for by a 13 per cent reduction in aerodynamic drag. For a horse that drafts for 75 per cent of a race, this effect is worth three to four finish places (figure 1c).
Doubtless Prufrock will have thoughts on this if he happens across this thread.
Interesting stuff Joe, but supposed gains from drafting are outweighed by pace differences which suit the individual and a vastly under-estimated issue of wind speed and direction. Horses are not like cyclists, they are pack animals, some are suited by being leaders from the front, others are followers/hold up horses. Some have more raw speed than others. So most horses are suited by one, two or more of: being in front, racing prominently, tracking pace, racing in mid-division, held up or dropped out the back. At each trip some will have more speed than their rivals, so are either suited by slowly run or equal fractions. Some will be claustrophobic and can not show their form by being in the pack.
Also, what is “drafting”? Is it being directly behind the one in front? If it is, then a jockey is in danger of another horse coming alongside, keeping him in or baulked and so dropping back. In practice a jockey often takes the position “in behind” yes, but between the two in front (not slip-streaming); Making it easier to slip between horses if it became necessary.
When wind speed is fairly significant it becomes a mightily important aspect. Headwinds make it far more difficult for front runners to hold on and “drafting” becomes especially advantageous. Where as a tail wind is a great advantage to front/prominent runners in all but overly strongly run races and drafting becomes far less important.
Value Is EverythingGinger, whatever the instincts or the causes of how a race pans out, the measured benefits (assuming you accept the figures laid out in the full article, and the methodology employed) cannot be disputed: it’s a matter of physics rather than opinion.
Your assertion that the gains from drafting are outweighed by other factors, cannot be proved, even though it might well be correct. To claim, as the authors of this paper do, that drafting for 75% of a race can earn a horse three to four finish places would not lightly be made given the depth of the study.
Simon’s take on it would be interesting. I’ll drop him a line on Twitter.
assuming you accept the figures
Can these figures be “proven” Joe?
Value Is EverythingThe effects of drag are proven. I suppose you could argue with the figures in the report, but what assumption or which part(s) of the methodology would you argue against and on what basis?
The effects of drag are proven. I suppose you could argue with the figures in the report, but what assumption or which part(s) of the methodology would you argue against and on what basis?
I have no doubt the “effects of drag are proven” Joe. I just don’t believe it can be measured like they claim in this report (in regard to horse racing) and is imo an inignificant aspect on form (13% is ridiculous) unless you’ve got particular conditions (eg a headwind). Indeed (as said) when there’s a tail wind advantages of “Drag” are non-existent, actually being a great advantage to be in front or racing prominently.
If the “worth 13%/three or four places” were true it would be virtully impossible to find horses “eqully effective from the front and held up”.
If there were no wind at all – imo only time it might play a part is in a large field on a straight course, but even then other aspects like draw, number of front runners, being drawn near a front runner (ie pace) are probably more important.
Importance of other aspects of form imo far outweigh “drafting” and no, I can not prove it. But neither can anyone else prove drafting outweighs other aspects.
Value Is EverythingAlso:
How exactly are they working out whether a drafting horse has an advantage?When I evaluate a race one of the most important things I look for is how many front runners (and their stamina requirements), prominent, track pace, as well as those who usually/like to race mid-div, held up or dropped out. The major reason I do this is that with no or little competition for the lead a horse can dictate a slower pace and kick from (or near) the front; with hold up horses often finding trouble. ie Front/prominent racers are usually suited (WIN MORE OFTEN) by slowly run races. Hold up horses are usually suited by truely/strongly run races, with those in front coming back to them…
It is obvious that prominent runners will generally put up slower times when winning than hold up horses do when winning. Not because prominent racers are intrinsically slower or “drafting”, but because a slower pace favours their win chance. Indeed, because of “pace” prominent runners often put up slower times when winning a slowly run event than they do when showing inferior form in finishing third or fourth in a truly run affair.
Therefore, if judging horses purely on best times; hold up horses will (over all) achieve faster times than prominent racers.
Value Is EverythingGinger, I’ve no doubt that all your points about preferred running styles, pace dictation etc are relevant and might easily compensate (and more) for the advantages of drafting. Equations and the modelling of their results from tagging, and the principle of applying the ‘Reynolds number’ etc., are about as far as you can get from my ability to understand. But there can be no argument about the advantages of drafting – for any moving object. A lone cyclist is estimated by some to use 70% of his/energy beating ‘drag’. The science is indisputable. Whether or not it is being correctly applied here is a question for someone with more brain power than I have.
I’m sure Simon’s analytical mind and long experience of sectionals would enable him to give us more of a layman’s explanation. Let’s hope he picks this up.
Drag is more important I think in sprints, and less important in steeplechases, especially as it increases with the square of the speed. I think Ginge is right that wind speed is important e.g. a 30mph headwind effectively means horses are running at roughly the equivalent of 60mph in still air so drafting is critical.
I have noticed Ryan Moore occasionally refers to getting a tow and I think he means it literally rather than metaphorically.
But as Ginge says other factors are also important and I’m not sure how drag ranks against draw, pace, need to expend energy overtaking etc.
But there can be no argument about the advantages of drafting – for any moving object. A lone cyclist is estimated by some to use 70% of his/energy beating ‘drag’. The science is indisputable. Whether or not it is being correctly applied here is a question for someone with more brain power than I have.
I am not disputing drafting happens Joe, just how important/effective it is in horse racing. It’s a totally different concept to cycling. Bikes are made for – and riders make a body shape – specificly for aerodynamic/drafting purposes. Unlike bikes, horses shape can not be altered and if riders are too concerned about slip streaming they’d be in greater danger of not getting a run. The analogy with cycle racing is imo a poor one.
I agree, Simon’s opinion will be very interesting.
Value Is EverythingJoe is right, it’s just the numbers that cant be proven
Horse’s perform better when settled rather than being free running and having to take a pull so if they take cover they are much more likely to switch off on the whole and run a better race. I wouldn’t know what it all equates to percentage wise but when backing a hold up horse or any horse really the first thing I’m looking for when the gates open is that has my selection settled and not wasting energy. All horses have different ability’s and run better/worse dependant on many things but in a two horse race run at fair pace if the better horse runs directly behind the other taking cover and settling you would expect it win every time.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Despite some commentators still referring to front runners as doing it “the hard way” we all know there is significant advantage in general to running from the front.
Money talks and there is no better example to the advantages/disadvantages of front running than in running betting. By and large in percentage terms, front runners trade significantly shorter in running.
This would not be the case if they were at a disadvantage and anyone who disagrees will surely be laying them in running at much lower prices than pre-race to make plenty of money for themselves.but in a two horse race run at fair pace if the better horse runs directly behind the other taking cover and settling you would expect it win every time.
Yes, settling is of massive importance Nathan. But there are surely numerous more important aspects to consider than who’s going to have the “draft”?
Are both horses suited by a test of stamina at the trip? If the front runner is suited by a test and the hold up horse barely stays, then (xxxx drafting) a truly run race will enhance the chance of the front runner and be against the hold up horse. If the opposite is true (front runner has more speed and is a doubtful stayer and hold up horse the stayer) then the front runner will slow it down to make speed tell.
Are they both equally suited by the going?
Have they got equal chances on form?
Are they both coming in to the race in good form?
Are both trainers in equally good form?
How do jockeys compare?In a two horse race, I’d usually be on the front runner, because it has the advantage of being able to dictate a pace that gives his best chance of winning and/or its rivals worst chance of winning. ie In a two horse race, imo unless there’s a headwind “Drafting” is again an insignificant aspect compared to other factors.
Value Is EverythingI am not disputing drafting happens Joe, just how important/effective it is in horse racing. It’s a totally different concept to cycling. Bikes are made for – and riders make a body shape – specificly for aerodynamic/drafting purposes. Unlike bikes, horses shape can not be altered and if riders are too concerned about slip streaming they’d be in greater danger of not getting a run. The analogy with cycle racing is imo a poor one.
I agree, Simon’s opinion will be very interesting.
[/quote]Spot on about bikes and cyclists, but it is precisely because there’s very little you can do to streamline horse and jockey (though think how low the US jocks crouch) that makes it so interesting to try and establish the effect of drag.
Cycling ‘experts’ used to believe that getting as low as possible was they key to reducing drag, but wind tunnel experiments showed that being narrow/streamlined (aerodynamic) was more important than being low. All else being equal: ability, fitness etc (impossible, but let’s imagine it in theory), in a race where every runner raced abreast throughout, then the horse with the most aerodynamic build should win the race.
Kasparov is right in that the faster they go, the more important drag becomes; here’s a quote from a cycling blog:
A cyclist maintaining a steady speed is subject to a number of resistive forces: the rolling resistance of the tyres, the friction in the chain and bearings and the aerodynamic resistance to motion — the force required to ‘push’ the air aside. Of all these forces aerodynamic drag is usually the greatest (at slow speeds and on steep hills this may not be the case) — at race speeds aerodynamics drag has been measured to account for 96% of total resistance
Bikes don’t have a brain.
I don’t think you understand just how much a horse’s character/temperament (in conjunction with pace) change results of horse races Joe.
If “drafting” had as much influence on horse racing as this study appears to claim – then its affect would be obvious when viewing racing…
As someone who bets for a living (and someone who believes drafting an insignificant aspect of form) if it did have such a big influence I would not make such a good profit.Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.