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Sorry to disappoint, but I doubt I have either the time or the skills to unravel all of what is in that paper! It’s a couple of years old, and I did read it near the time of publication, but I had forgotten about it until now.
I will say that I have come across these authors in a different context and was far from impressed. The paper about horses being slowed down by declines seemed fundamentally flawed: some of the speeds quoted were implausible and suggested problems with the data; it seemed to make little/no adjustment for the fact that declines occurred at stages of a race at which horses might be decelerating anyway; it made no reference or explanation to the opposite phenomenon which is manifested at e.g. Epsom; and so on. In this study they have used average speeds, seemingly without context, and that may be suspect.
On drafting, the principle is incontrovertible, but things would appear to play out rather differently in horseracing. Else, we would be seeing the vast majority of races being won by horses that stalked and pounced. It would overwhelm many other factors, and it doesn’t. Drafting must save energy, but it is probably far more difficult to achieve effectively in horseracing than in the named alternatives. Can you stick a horse’s nose up the leader’s bum and then switch and accelerate on command?
That races are NOT being won overwhelmingly by stalk-and-pounce runners can be seen by the record of Early Position Figure (EPF) categories (1 is a front-runner, 2 is prominent/stalking, 3 is mid-field, 4 is towards rear, 5 is in rear).
Across British and Irish Flat racing in 2014: EPF1 beat 57.3% of their rivals; 2 beat 54.2%; 3 beat 50.8%; 4 beat 45.8%; and 5 beat 37.5%.
The performance of 1s and 5s varied by distance (unsurprisingly), with 1s doing better at shorter and 5s doing better at longer, but the 2 to 4 range (where we would expect to observe the advantages of drafting) was pretty consistent across all distance categories.
Interestingly, it was a similar story for field size, though “large” (16 plus runners) saw near-parity between 1s and 2s (54.1% and 54.3%) compared to “small/medium” (57.5% and 54.0%). That’s parity, where “Drafting Theory” might imagine 2s and 3s would take off: they don’t.
In addition to the likely difficulty in drafting effectively on horseback, other factors include: 1s get to dictate the pace and unless going too fast are usually nearer to efficiency than drafting horses; horses in the pack are more likely to encounter trouble in running; there is a degree of selection bias in field position, in that out-of-sorts/unsuited-by-conditions horses very seldom occupy a front-running role but occupy an increasing proportion of each EPF category as you go further back in the field.
But, as I said, drafting should be a factor, even if it is seemingly not an overwhelming factor in horseracing (in most cases). I am unaware of anyone who allows for it, and that might be an opportunity. It would be great to do a detailed survey using a bit more horseracing “nous” to see if any rules can be formed.
SDR
You can’t deny the effect of drag on any moving body. It is a well documented fact that I covered in a small way when sitting my Physics Higher back in the 70’s. I passed, so I must have got the gist of the subject in some way.
There are numerous sports where we see competitors kitted out with equipment, clothing and positioning that allows them to minimise the effect of the dreaded air particles on momentum. One of the first I recall was hearing that David Wilkie the Scottish swimmer was going to shave his body hair off before the final of the 200m Breaststroke in 1976 in an effort to go for the world record. I pondered how much difference the offending follicles could have on his ability to scythe through the water but whatever the science of being less hirsute, he shaved, pardon the pun, more than two seconds off the world record, although I suspect he was a few pounds ahead of the handicapper anyway. The lads at school would later discuss the extent of Wilkie’s application of the old Wilkinson Sword and whether it was just the arms and legs that went under the blade, or if the oxter hair and the old “smartie tubes” had also been sacrificed in the name of speed.
Track Cycling is a sport that exemplifies the quest to maximise the benefit of sitting in the slipstream of the rider in front, ironically perhaps best demonstrated when the rider is actually sitting behind his own team mates in the team pursuit. The four riders take turns in being at the front, sheltering the others and they swap positions with metronomic precision, smoothly choreographed like Nureyev in a ballet.
For me this demonstrates the problem when trying to translate the theory to horse racing. There are just so many factors that make it impossible to expect anything like the same benefit from slipstreaming an opponent. For a start you are not going to get the cooperation of your team mate, as you are following rivals, how close can you sit without making the situation dangerous? You also have to potentially go against the horse’s instinct.
Horse Racing can be so unreliable at the best of times. Formbooks, stop watch timings, sectionals, pedigrees, perceived draw biases and going preferences can all help on occasion but at other times be as much use as brown toilet roll.
I reckon it would be nigh on impossible to produce meaningful figures on the benefits of drafting and try to apply them with any success to future races. Sometimes the front is the right place to have been in a race and sometimes it’s better to have come from off the pace. You can plan all you want on how you think the race will unfold but then see it transpire differently once the gates open.
I think it will continue as a general rule of thumb, where jockeys will try to get a bit of cover when there is a strong headwind and the front runners may have a tougher task than they normally have. It might be a red herring thinking that a front runner is worth a few pounds more because he would theoretically have had less wind resistance had he been sitting in behind.
There’s enough to think about already when evaluating a race and I doubt there will be an appetite amongst punters for drag coefficients and mathematical formulae.
Maybe I’m wrong though and Ballydoyle will be running their horses in teams of four from now on, with three of them sheltering Gleneagles, as Ryan Moore sets about coming to the front near the finish, kitted out with lycra jersey, testicles bulging through lycra shorts and sporting a Chris Hoy helmet shaped like an ice cream cone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I notice Sam W-C now wears a tight fit top when riding in his dad’s colours. Not sure if this is to try to gain some sort of advantage or just fashion
I think unless there is a very strong headwind I can’t see it making so much difference. As others have said there are more important things to take into account than a bit of drag.Thanks for looking in and giving your thoughts, Simon. So many imponderables, one of them, perhaps, that the dominant percentage in beating others is occupied by front runners. That brings us back to the thread title – could it be that front runners are better than they are rated?
Also, the parity in the big and medium sized fields…returning to cycling, that would be no surprise. I believe the claim is that the bigger the peloton, the more effective drafting becomes.
A fascinating subject, to me at least. Perhaps Godolphin will splash out on a wind tunnel and a couple of million pounds’ worth of measuring equipment?
Thanks for looking in and giving your thoughts, Simon. So many imponderables, one of them, perhaps, that the dominant percentage in beating others is occupied by front runners. That brings us back to the thread title – could it be that front runners are better than they are rated?
Also, the parity in the big and medium sized fields…returning to cycling, that would be no surprise. I believe the claim is that the bigger the peloton, the more effective drafting becomes.
A fascinating subject, to me at least. Perhaps Godolphin will splash out on a wind tunnel and a couple of million pounds’ worth of measuring equipment?
It is a fascinating subject Joe,
The “EPF figures” suggest front runners (on average) should be marked down (not up). They beat more horses home than hold up horses do. Unless taken on – front runners can dictate the pace that suits them. If a front runner needs a truly run race at the trip it can make the race truly run, where as a hold up horse requiring a truly run race has to rely on others to do it. Front running horses that barely stay the trip can set a slow pace and make speed pay. Hold up doubtful stayers must rely on others not going too fast and even if getting the race run slower – is in a poor position when pace increases. So in many races front runners are flattered by the result and can therefore can be marked down formwise. ie Unless able to dictate in exactly the same way is unlikely to achieve the same performance rating.Obviously, the more runners there are the more front/prominent runners are likely to be in the field. Although “drafting” may play a small part in large fields… With the fastest way to get from A to B being a (roughly) level, even pace – in larger fields pace is far more likely to be disputed and therefore front runners less likely to have the positional advantage (of kicking for home off a slow pace) instead often going too quick too soon. With strongly run races hold up horses have positional advantage, more likely to achieve even fractions than prominent racers – hence the difference in EPF figures in those situations.
Only when a front runner has set overly strong early fractions can its performance be “marked up” and/or if too free. Look out for Muthmir at Royal Ascot.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Nathan Hughes wrote:</div>
but in a two horse race run at fair pace if the better horse runs directly behind the other taking cover and settling you would expect it win every time.Yes, settling is of massive importance Nathan. But there are surely numerous more important aspects to consider than who’s going to have the “draft”?
Are both horses suited by a test of stamina at the trip? If the front runner is suited by a test and the hold up horse barely stays, then (xxxx drafting) a truly run race will enhance the chance of the front runner and be against the hold up horse. If the opposite is true (front runner has more speed and is a doubtful stayer and hold up horse the stayer) then the front runner will slow it down to make speed tell.
Are they both equally suited by the going?
Have they got equal chances on form?
Are they both coming in to the race in good form?
Are both trainers in equally good form?
How do jockeys compare?In a two horse race, I’d usually be on the front runner, because it has the advantage of being able to dictate a pace that gives his best chance of winning and/or its rivals worst chance of winning. ie In a two horse race, imo unless there’s a headwind “Drafting” is again an insignificant aspect compared to other factors.
I did say at a fair pace not a dictated one. But yes for me going, distance etc are more important but the covering up/drifting can help improve a horses chance else why would jockeys take the chance in doing so when they have a wide open field to gallop into?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I did say at a fair pace not a dictated one. But yes for me going, distance etc are more important but the covering up/drifting can help improve a horses chance else why would jockeys take the chance in doing so when they have a wide open field to gallop into?
because horses are pack animals. Some are natural leaders (front-runners) some like to follow (hold up horses).
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Nathan Hughes wrote:</div>
I did say at a fair pace not a dictated one. But yes for me going, distance etc are more important but the covering up/drifting can help improve a horses chance else why would jockeys take the chance in doing so when they have a wide open field to gallop into?because horses are pack animals. Some are natural leaders (front-runners) some like to follow (hold up horses).
And some like to run faster than the jockey wants them too and will pull the jockeys arms out of socket.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think unless there is a very strong headwind I can’t see it making so much difference. As others have said there are more important things to take into account than a bit of drag.
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