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Where is this heading for everyone folks? I write this in the wake of Treve hosing up at Saint Cloud beating last years Prix de l’Opera Longines winner, We Are, without barely coming off the bridle. A very impressive start from her as she goes for that record three timer. If she can sustain this type of form to the end of the season to peak at Longchamp, it looks highly likely she can do it!
That was a tremendous performance from Treve.
As you said she barely came off the bridle, beating notably We Are (last year’s Saint Alary and Prix de l’Opera winner).
Her next race is the GP de Saint-Cloud where she could face the likes of our eternal Cirrus and perhaps Al Kazeem as well.Frankly spoken, this is one of the best impression I have had in this season yet.
There is a german 3yo filly called NIGHTFLOWER won a 1m2 group2 but was strong at finish no price for her she is a wildcard for the race if she can progress over 1m4 i think she will.
Treve looked fair value at 5/1, she was the same price last year and has started much more encouragingly I would say.
The stopwatch boys were wowing over New Bay in the French Derby but he ran in the French 2000 Guineas and will have to show he is truly a 12f horse.
I am not sure Golden Horn will end up here. Much will depend on the Derby and it could be Eclipse and Champion Stakes for him afterwards.
At the odds Queen’s Jewel was my pick at 25/1. She’s on the upgrade and fairly thundered home last time after missing the kick and having to be ridden to get into the race. She fairly picked up late on, looking like a mile and a half will suit in time. We will know more after the Prix Diane. I expect her to win that at shorter odds than the original 2/1. Ervedya is going to Ascot for the Coronation Stakes, so that leaves Vedouma as her nearest challenger for the Diane. I think Head’s filly is better than her.
With the good recent record of fillies in the race, I would hope to see Queens Jewel win the Diane, one of the trials and then start at single figures for the Arc, with Treve the potential saver bet. That’s the theory, no money will change hands these days!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
steeplechasingParticipant
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Great foresight (GH @20/1), Oppenheimer didn’t want to supplement the horse for the Derby initially but obviously stays well.
Any chance of your phone number ?, joking mate.I bet Treve at 4/1 after that, but the best value by far imo is 20/1 Golden Horn
steeplechasingParticipant
Total Posts 2037
I bet Treve at 4/1 after that, but the best value by far imo is 20/1 Golden Horn
Thanks Blue. Looking back at his races GH seemed to me very much the type who’d improve for the trip rather than not stay it. Nice to hear the owner say he’d love to run him in the Arc. But there are many perils to be dodged between now and October!
2015 – the year of the Japanese Arc winner. Duramente?
I hope on the day that history will be made, a Japanese victor or a triple arc de triomphe
winner.
Duramente recently won the Japanese Derby with a bit in hand and that was after losing a lot of ground by veering sharply left around a bend. He has an engine on him and it will be interesting to see if he can match Treve for turn of foot.
A Long way to go yet.Re: Treve
As one who doubted the great mare could win back to back Arcs ;
especially given her less than extraordinary performances prior to her second win
( I masticated on the humblest of pies after that ) , I must admit that after watching her sluice
up once again at Longchamp- toying with Flintshire in the process – that she will
take all the beating in this year’s renewal . An incredible racehorse.Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’m surprised Ampere hasn’t been mooted for this yet.
He’s unbeaten but has a lot of improvement to make from his Group 3 win over Cape Clear Island. The O’Brien horse stank the place out on his next two starts.
Mind you, with a name like that his next performance could be electric and he’ll then be the current favourite. I doubt he’ll be Ohm and hosed though
Jack Hobbs at 10/1 would be my main bet at this stage and Snow Sky at 25/1 might end up a bit of value, considering he’s favourite for the King George and perhaps a fair bit improved this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Snow Sky’s price is probably something to do with connections targeting the Melbourne Cup. Has that changed? Suspect it will if winning the KG, but if still not a “Group 1 winner” by October – may well be on a plane to Aus instead of France.
Value Is EverythingSnow Sky’s price is probably something to do with connections targeting the Melbourne Cup. Has that changed? Suspect it will if winning the KG, but if still not a “Group 1 winner” by October – may well be on a plane to Aus instead of France.
A couple of guys I spoke with early in the season thought Snow Sky might be a Cup horse this season but he looked worthy of a shot at good 12f races unless he was lucky/flattered last time. The Melbourne Cup would be a fools errand if he can lift the King George and that race is going to thin out seriously over the next three weeks, with Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs highly unlikely to show up and several others having question marks and bad runs to overcome. 25/1 might just be a big price as an alternative to the skinny Treve and Golden Horn, with a lot of water to pass under the bridge before October.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It sounds very much as if Golden Horn will be running in the King George. That is going to make it a busy old spring/summer for him and you just wonder how many times they can go to the well with him.
Dancing Brave ran Craven/Guineas/Derby/Eclipse/King George in his season, had a prep at massive odds on and then won the Arc before greed/tiredness caught up with him in the Breeders Cup.
Golden Horn is not entered in the Arc and the owner has said they won’t enter him if the ground is soft. He makes little appeal at the current odds to my eyes. Even if he does get entered, there is the considerable question mark of Treve waiting in the wings, looking better than she did at this stage last season and bidding for an historic hat-trick. 11/4 Golden Horn looks a tad suicidal for me.
Jack Hobbs won’t mind the soft, he’s improving and lightly raced. Had Anthony Oppenheimer stuck to his guns and run in France instead, Jack Hobbs would be a dual Derby winner. 10/1 was advised, but even at 8/1 now, he looks as good an each-way lock as you could really hope for.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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