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3:35 Chester:
65 points @ 4/1 (PP) Morando (min 7/2)
saver:
19 points @ 7/2 (B365) Magic Circle (min 100/30)Value Is Everythingtbh I know the detail sounds complicated, Frenchy; but in practice – being used to doing it/knowing what am looking for… and with Timeform Racepasses information to help (those without Timeform could use Racing Post) – doing my own trainer form takes an average of a few minutes per runner.
Value Is EverythingI do enjoy GT’s views even if I don’t post much… but on Timeform is it really worth the money? I’ve always thought about it but never paid for it…
Am back from my hols, stayed near Nicky Richards place – walking the Lake District. Only enough energy to study one race tonight and if doing other races it’ll be late tomorrow. Here’s the Lockinge:
3:40 Newbury:
32 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Mustashry (min 10/1)
32 points @ 12/1 (L) Without Parole (min 10/1)
25 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Sharja Bridge (min 14/1)
saver:
20 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Le Brivido (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingI do enjoy GT’s views even if I don’t post much… but on Timeform is it really worth the money? I’ve always thought about it but never paid for it…
Depends on the punter, Igor. What are you looking to achieve?
I’ve been part of a quiz team taking on Racing’s elite (racing journalists, form book writers, trainers, jockeys etc) and occasionally beaten them. But although I know a reasonable amount about Racing in general, wouldn’t stand any chance what-so-ever of making a profit without the help of Timeform.
However, punters using Timeform in order to identify the horse with the best chance of winning – and always backing that horse – are highly unlikely to show a profit in the long run. Bookmaker’s odds compilers also use Timeform and – to profit – punters need to be better than odds compilers at evaluating form in to chance… ie Backing horses under-estimated by the market.
Therefore, if a punter is no good at evaluating form in to chance (and most aren’t) then a deficit will be made no matter how good Timeform is… And it will inevitably take time for a punter to learn how to use Timeform in order to make a good profit. But – if persevering – at least Timeform gives the punter’s chance of success.
Value Is EverythingThanks Baynet.
Hopefully be on here again tomorrow, when refreshed.Value Is Everything3:40 Newbury:
32 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Mustashry (min 10/1)
32 points @ 12/1 (L) Without Parole (min 10/1)
25 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Sharja Bridge (min 14/1)
saver:
20 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Le Brivido (min 5/1)
18 points @ 20/1 (L) Mythical Magic (min 16/1)Value Is EverythingInterestingly both the official ratings and the Timeform ratings (available on the free race pass today) show horses all of very similar ability for this race.So not easy to work out how to bet. I think Timeform could make mroe effort to help punters by adjusting the ratings for factors like going and trip. e.g. if a horse doesn’t like the ground or it isn’t its best distance they could subtract a few pounds. Or maybe they could offer a run to form probability. Otherwise the punter has to do a lot of work just to get started. Of course I do realise the more info TF provide the harder it is to find an edge, but it is their job to provide the info.
I haven’t made an absolute 100% book for this because there’s so many question marks with fitness, Frenchy. Prices am willing to take change more often early in the season/where horses may or may not be fit. Seems confidence in some horses fitness and lack of confidence in others.
In this race my mind focused on unexposed sorts. ie Laurens has the best and Lord Glitters probably second best form, but their form seems established. Beat The Bank, I Can Fly and Accidental Agent‘s form all seem at an established level too. Latter will probably need it anyway – prep for another crack at the Queen Anne. Romanised and Billesdon Brook seem incapable of their past best. Romanised a bit better last time but personally suspect he’s a bad traveller. Ostilio progressive last season but ran poorly reappearance and likes his own way in front… His presence may go against Laurens. The filly’s trainer is yet to hit full swing too.
Le Brivido was one that went in to my notebook for better/winning a Group 1 after the Jersey, but has been fragile since. It wouldn’t surprise if his new trainer fulfil the horse’s potential. Having said that – he’s unusually weak in the market for an AOB. 5.4/1 doesn’t look value anymore tbh (unless it shortens again). Very difficult to know his real chance and thankfully only had a saver. How the market goes tells a lot with this type of horse.
Without Parole came to the fore at this time last season and ran an encouraging race in Dubai; might yet fulfil his potential. Headgear from this stable far from a negative. Considering Sharja Bridge‘s inexperience wasn’t far behind the established Beat The Bank at Sandown. SB could still improve a bit more – BTB won’t. Mythical Magic isn’t yet of the standard of some but is seemingly progressing fast. Obviously a question mark on whether he can reproduce (let alone improve on) Godolphin Meydan form, is a big enough price to take that chance. Mutashry was weak in the market at Newmarket and giving weight all round was fairly close to Zabeel Prince (who I think is Group 1 material). Mutashry progressed well last year and may do the same this.
Value Is EverythingInterestingly both the official ratings and the Timeform ratings (available on the free race pass today) show horses all of very similar ability for this race.So not easy to work out how to bet. I think Timeform could make mroe effort to help punters by adjusting the ratings for factors like going and trip. e.g. if a horse doesn’t like the ground or it isn’t its best distance they could subtract a few pounds. Or maybe they could offer a run to form probability. Otherwise the punter has to do a lot of work just to get started. Of course I do realise the more info TF provide the harder it is to find an edge, but it is their job to provide the info.
Each to his own Kasparov, personally I’d absolutely hate that. Their “job” is to provide the information so that punters can analyse the form and come to our own conclusion how the race conditions change things.
I want to know what each horse is capable of under their best conditions and use my own judgment on how distance, going, consistency/temperament, expected pace, fitness etc. If Timeform did allow lbs for those things then I’d need to know how much they allowed for each individual aspect so I can add/subtract them.
In most cases simple enough for punters to make their own decision on how much an aspect of form makes to its chance by looking at performance ratings where similar conditions prevailed.
Also, what happens when there’s a late downpour that changes both going and stamina requirements or (as happens a fair bit) wrong going descriptions?
Or the front runner comes out, effecting the pace angle? Those added or subtracted lbs could change every few minutes in the lead up to a race… And can’t have one rule for a nice weather day and another rule for a changable weather day. Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury (betting without Crystal Ocean):
76 points @ 100/30 (B365) Raymund Tusk (min 11/4)Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury (betting without Crystal Ocean):
76 points @ 100/30 (B365) Raymund Tusk (min 11/4)
23 points @ 14/1 (B365) Pivoine (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingWelcome back GT. Hope you’ve had a refreshing break (plus plenty of formbook study). Great shout with Mustashry who won nicely
Or the front runner comes out, effecting the pace angle? Those added or subtracted lbs could change every few minutes in the lead up to a race… And can’t have one rule for a nice weather day and another rule for a changable weather day. 
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