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Faced with the prospect of over a month of excruciating campaigning, I thought we could spice it up a bit with a thread about betting on the election.
A Labour majority looks a done deal, so there is little to be gained in that direction. It made me think the Number Of Conservative Seats market might be potentially lucrative.
I have a sneaking feeling the Conservatives will do a bit better than the polls suggest. I don’t detect any great enthusiasm for Starmer. Therefore, I have taken 15/2 with Ladbrokes about the Conservatives winning between 200 and 249 seats. I think that is a bit overpriced.
I have had a covering bet at 3/1 for 150 to 199 seats. That would put them in 1997 and 2001 territory.
Let’s try to make some money out of this dreary contest!
The press is making a fuss about a Tory party insider betting £100 on a July election date. They’re suggesting it’s illegal. However, I don’t think using inside info for betting is illegal in horse racing so I don’t see why politics would be different. Having looked at the legislation, cheating is illegal but cheating seems to be related to misleading people rather than using inside info. So I doubt we’ll see any prosecution.
But maybe I’ve misunderstood?
I agree with you Kasparov. It doesn’t strike me as being very different from backing an unraced horse that you heard had been working well at a bigger price than you thought it should be. It still has to win the race for you to collect.
It’s not as if Sunak et al got together (as far as we know) and said “right the election is going to be in July but before I announce it let’s go round all the betting shops in the country and pile on Barney Curley style” is it?
Of course you can’t expect the anti-gambling media to pass up any opportunity to wag their fingers in admonishment at such a despicable carry on.
I agree too. It was a bit of a foolish thing to do but as I pointed out on the thread in the Lounge, plenty of other people profit from inside knowledge as far as betting is concerned.
What about short priced favourites that drift on Betfair just before the off and get well beaten? Or horses that meet with a setback in training and then drift in the antepost market? Aren’t these layers using inside knowledge?
It really all depends on how much these Conservatives knew, Kasparov… And how close they were to the decision making.
A bet is only a bet if there is a chance of winning AND a chance of losing. So if they KNEW the decision had been made then it was wrong to have a bet.
If they did not “know” but believed given their knowledge that the chance of an early election had been underestimated by the market and therefore had a bet… Then they may have done nothing or little wrong.I do remember going to a David Elsworth stable visit and being told a horse who’d run in the Derby for them – Salford City – had been recently sold and was waiting to go to Hong Kong. When I got home I saw on betfair Salford City listed in a market that had just gone up for another British race. I put a small LAY bet up waiting to be taken… However, it didn’t feel right and soon went back and I deleted the bet. Inside information.
The question should also be asked: If journalists heard a politician talking of the election date, How many of them would’ve had a bet before writing their article?
Value Is EverythingHad a bet on the turnout:
57.5% to 59.99% at 5/1
I cannot remember a more boring election campaign and voter apathy could be the value bet.
tbh I am not voting.
Can’t bring myself to vote for any of them.
So if I (normally a Conservative voter) is not voting… And it being seen as a Labour landslide foregone conclusion means many normally Labour voters won’t vote either. I agree CAS, This turnout is likely to be very small.At the start of this campaign I heard that many Scots were thinking of voting Labour to drive out the Torries. If they think Labour will easily win it is possible they will stay at home too, leading to the SNP doing better than expected?
Value Is EverythingI know what you mean, Ginger. I think lots of people feel the same way.
I have never known a quieter campaign. I have not seen a single candidate and have received very few leaflets. I usually see people with posters up in their windows but I have not seen a single one.
60% to 62.49% and 62.5% to 64.99% were both priced at 9/4 yesterday. I will be surprised if turnout is heading towards 65%. I think just under 60% was worth a punt at the price.
Unfortunately the first two bets I put up were before Farage got involved, which has probably scuppered them. But I am hopeful about the turnout bet and Tice winning.
I might look a few other constituencies later. I wonder if Truss holding her seat at 6/5 might be some value? It is a strong Conservative location in usual circumstances and incumbent MPs, even the hapless Truss, often build up a local following.
‘I usually see people with posters up in their windows but I have not seen a single one’
I can’t say I blame people in these polarised times, whatever party’s sign you put up in the window somebody will take that as an invitation to put a brick through it.
I think people would be safe with Labour posters up in the window around here, as they have been in previous campaigns. I can’t say the same about the other parties, especially the Conservatives or Reform.
Labour will win here as they always do but I don’t think Starmer inspires much enthusiasm, hence the lack of visible support.
I’ve seen a few Labour signs about in a constituency where they are 1/500 and a couple of Lib Dem and Reform ones elsewhere. No Tory signs in farmers’ fields though, the game must really be up!
Careful backing Truss, CAS.
Although I am a Conservative who is not voting, if I were in Truss’s seat I’d certainly make a point of voting… Voting out Truss.Value Is Everything
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