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This is true Tommy.
Hope he puts on a show for you, fingers crossed he’s in good working order.
Sunday’s bets didn’t set the world alight. Light That and Calino D’Airy both travelled well into contention but found little which was disappointing. Cosmos Moon was a non runner so 1 pt returned.
+5
An old favorite of mine returns tomorrow at Thurles after over two years off the track: Apache Stronghold. It’s always a risk backing a horse returning off such a layoff as you’d wonder does the old ability still remain. However, in this case I think it’s worth the gamble at odds of 6/1. In his pomp he’d have been much the best of these and he receives weight from all. Bachasson is 4/5 fav. He’s been off quite a while himself (since February) and although he has won on heavy at Gowran, he has shown his best form on better ground in the past. Val De Verbet is next in the market, but for is an inconsistent sort, who’s stand out piece of form was against a below par A Toi Phil, form which I wouldn’t put too much faith in. The two Elliott contenders have a too much to find for me. If Apache Stronghold retains even close to the ability he had before I’d expect him to ease to victory here.
Selection:
Thurles 13:00 – Apache Stronghold 1 pt win @ 6/1 (general)
+4
Poor Apache was on his nose at one stage on the final circuit in Thurles which cost him any chance but given the manner of victory for Bachasson it’s hard to have seen him making an impact in the finish anyway.
Tomorrow, I was surprised to see the disparity in price between Tin Soldier and Monbeg Notorious in the beginner’s chase. He has form on deep ground and bar a below par effort behind Rathnure Rebel his record is excellent. Elliott has always maintained he’ll be a better chaser an 2m 4f around Gowran will take some getting which should suit him.
Selection:
Gowran 14:55 – Monbeg Notorious 1 pt win @ 9/4 (B365)
+3
Disappointing Monbeg Notorious couldn’t take advantage of the departure of Tin Soldier at the second last.
Tomorrow’s feature at Navan is the Troytown, which revolves around 3/1 favorite Acapella Bourgeois. I’ve had him in mind for this for some time but on balance I feel happy to let him run at odds of 3/1. Bonny Kate was my selection in this last year and I’ve gone with her again. She’s 3 lbs higher this year and while she ran well, she was ultimately disappointing thereafter, I think first or second time out could just be the time to catch her. The major advantage she has this year over last is the ground: she loves it soft. It was March before she got ground with heavy in the description last year and she seemed to have gone off the boil by then – she seemed to do similar the previous season with her best form coming before spring. According to the Racing Post, she had encountered ground with the heavy in the description four times, winning on three of those occasions (the other ebing the aforementioned run in March this year). I think she rates an excellent each way bet at 20/1 with Bet 365 paying 1/4 odds on the first five. My first 2pt selection.
Selection:
Navan 14:35 – Bonny Kate 1 pt e/w @ 20/1 (B365)
+1
Bonny Kate placed third.
+7
In the 1.55 at Thurles tomorrow I think Champagne Paddy is worth an each way bet at 8/1. The form of his bumper win looks reasonable and that level of form should definitely see him in the first three. He faces and impressive Noel Meade bumper winner and a Willie Mullins trained French import make its Irish debut, and while I’d wager if any of these is destined for the top it is more likely one of those, at the prices I think Joseph O’Brien’s horse is the bet. His defeat of Scheu Time reads well even though that one was disappointing on it’s latest start.
Selections:
Thurles 13:55 – Champagne Paddy 0.5 pts e/w @ 8/1 (B365, Paddy Power)
+6
Something amiss with Champagne Paddy who was quickly pulled up before the second hurdle yesterday.
An excellent weekend’s racing in store and a couple of bets for me on tomorrow’s Fairyhouse card. In the opener I was very surprised to see The Storyteller put in at 4/1 third favourite behind Sutton Manor and Livelovelaugh. I missed the 4/1 but managed to get on at 7/2 which is now gone but he’s still a bet at the current 3/1. He was the best of these over hurdles and should be all the better for a seasonal reappearance behind Chateua Conti over hurdles. He rates as a 2 pt bet.
In the 2m 2f maiden hurdle, one I punted last time, Someday, tries to get his head in front. However, Paloma Blue didn’t advertise that form very well and at 3/1 here I’m happy to let him go. Blow By Blow made a satisfactory return when third at Punchestown but again at 11/10 he can win without my money. The one I like is As You Were for Alan Fleming. He routed a decent bumper field when trained by Emmett Mullins in the spring when he was very green, and looked as if he’d come on a tonne for the experience.
In the 2m Grade A handicap chase, there are a few JP McManus owned horses I’ve had my eye on. Anibale Fly is the type to win a big handicap (Paddy Power perhaps?) but I think it will probably be over further, the same goes for Squouateur. Bobbie’s Diamond catches the eye of a feather weight for Anibale Fly’s trainer Tony Martin. The run that sticks out is when chasing home 139 rated Mr Diablo over course and distance in March 2016, only beaten 4 lengths when not asked for much effort. He has obviously had is issues but showed enough when a staying on 5th in Down Royal latest to suggest he may be chucked in off a mark of 118.
Selections:
Fairyhouse 12:15 – The Storyteller 2 pt win @ 3/1 (Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook)
Fairyhouse 13:25 – Bobbie’s Diamond 0.5 pt win @ 14/1 (B365)
Fairyhouse 3.55 – As You Were 0.5 pts e/w @ 6/1 (B365)+2.5
Hope Paddy is ok Tommy, fingers crossed for him.
Too tired after work to discuss it properly, but what a great weekend at Fairyhouse, the Saturday card is a cracker as well, and the good news for you……………I’m not jinxing any of your selections today lol
The Storyteller won well to make a profitable day – thanks to VTC for steering clear…
+9.5
Took 14/1 about Bleu Et Rouge for the big handicap hurdle on Sunday. I can only think the price is so big because he is an uncertain participant but I’ve been led to believe he will run. Chasing didn’t work out for him last season but he had bags of ability and if he is declared would expect he’ll go off closer to 4/1 than 14’s.
I wrote the above about Bleu Et Rouge in the Big Races section. He’s still 14/1 for tomorrow which really surprises me.
Selection:
Fairyhouse 14:35 – Bleu Et Rouge 1 pt e/w @ 14/1 (B365)
+8.5
I see Bleu et Rouge will appear in the last race at Ascot on Saturday. Might be worth another go but not sure why he flopped at Fairyhouse.
“Bleu Et Rouge looks a live contender for champion trainer Willie Mullins in the Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.
The JP McManus-owned grey was campaigned over fences last term but finished down the field on his return to action in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse.
“Bleu Et Rouge was a bit disappointing on his first run back, but hopefully he will have come on for the run,” said McManus’s racing manager Frank Berry.
“Willie’s been happy with him at home since.””
Hi Kasparov,
I’m happy enough to let Bleu Et Rouge run today. I thought last time was a great opportunity for a big prize and he was extremely well backed on the day. However his jumping was very sluggish and when his chance was gone Geraghty was very easy on him.
I thought I’d a great bet at 14/1 that day but at 9/1 today, given how poor his jumping was, he can go and win without my money. I think he has loads of ability, and the fact Geragthy has chosen him over Charli Parcs suggests better is expected, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a big jump forward.
Top Othe Ra is a better bet I feel, at 40/1. He has been in fine form this year before disappointing in that Fairyhouse race. However the two horses he beat previously, Yaha Fizz and She’s A Star, finished third and fourth in that race so the form has worked out well. If he’s over whatever ailed him that day he could play a part and for that reason I’ll have a small bet e/w on him. Will keep this thread to Irish bets only, however.
A few selections tomorrow at Leopardstown.
In the Pertemps Qualifier, I think A Great View is worth a bet at 20/1. He was a progressive novice hurdler before losing his way (perhaps his way was lost for him) as a novice chaser last season. This season he has had two start in handicap hurdles, the first when sixth behind Oscar Knight in a hot contest at Naas and most recently when fourth at Fairyhouse. He tries 3m for the first time here which could bring about more improvement. With Mark Walsh up, he’s an interesting runner tomorrow.
In the 2m novice handicap hurdle, Artful Artist can add another winner for today’s Paddy Power Chase winner, Tony Martin. He was second over 2m 2f here beaten a head last Christmas of 102. He’s off 111 now with 7 lbs taken off. The run that sticks out for me is his second at Galway behind Pateen this summer off a mark of 106, where the winner gave Davy Russell the slip for me, a race he really should have won. They’ve obviously targeted this meeting with him before and if he’s in the same form he was in at Galway he should take a hand in the finish.
Leopardstown have rearranged the card tomorrow and anyone going home early wants their head examined as the finale is a cracker of a beginners chase. Sutton Place takes on Bacardys takes on Snow Falcon. They’re three horses I really like. Snow Falcon is an underappreciated sort for me but he lacks the potential star quality of the other pair so I’ll reluctantly pass him over. Bacardys jumped poorly on his fencing debut at Navan, where he was behind Snow Falcon, but I’d expect he’ll improve plenty for that. However, if there’s a future Gold Cup horse here I reckon it’s Sutton Place. He has looked a real star at times and anything close to 2/1 tomorrow is a bet. The three of these could return here for the Moriarty at the new racing festival in January and all be worthy of their place.
Selections:
12:50 Leopardstown – A Great View 0.5 pts e/w @ 20/1 (B365, BV)
13:50 Leopardstown – Artful Artist 0.5 pts e/w @ 9/1 (General)
15:35 Leopardstown – Sutton Place 1 pt win @ 15/8 (PP)+5.5
Selections:
12:50 Leopardstown – A Great View 0.5 pts e/w @ 20/1 (B365, BV)
13:50 Leopardstown – Artful Artist 0.5 pts e/w @ 9/1 (General)
15:35 Leopardstown – Sutton Place 1 pt win @ 15/8 (PP)+5.5
A Great View came from 12th position jumping the last (ordinarily the second last) to be beaten a short head, he was up in another couple of strides so bitterly disappointed not to land the odds. Still, I won’t complain about a placed 20/1 shot. Sutton Place was a late non runner while Artful Artist ran poorly.
+9.5
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