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Brian Hughes is currently 3 ahead of Harry Skelton. Harry had been steadily eroding Brian’s lead but Brian struck back with three winners yesterday. In trying to forecast the outcome I think Brian will ride as follows:
Aintree, Kelso, Huntingdon, Southwell, Cheltenham (2 days), Ayr (2 days), Stratford, Hexham, Sedgefield, Perth (3 days), Sandown. I reckon he’ll have about 5 rides a day and a strike rate about 16%. So 75 rides and about 12 winners. His recent strike rate has been about 20% but I think he’ll find it harder to find winners at Aintree, Cheltenham and Sandown.
Harry will probably do Aintree, Plumpton, Huntingdon, Southwell, Cheltenham (2 days), Fontwell, Bangor, Wincanton, Kempton, Sedgefield, Ludlow, Warwick, Worcester, Sandown. He’ll do about 4.5 rides a day at about a 22% strike rate (lower than his recent average) for about 15 winners.
So it looks pretty close. Harry has the advantage that he is in a team with his trainer brother who is adept at placing horses in midweek races but this is allowed for in his superior strike rate.
Much will depend on the head to head meetings, whether the Skeltons have enough horses to plunder more low grade races, whether Brian can ride some favourites in Scotland, injuries and luck.
Further research might shed more light but at this stage evens on both looks about right.
Brian had a day off today but Harry didn’t find any winners at Huntingdon. Both riders contest at Southwell tomorrow with Harry having better chances based on current odds. Harry is the rightful favourite now, having narrowed the gap at Aintree. I expect he will overtake Brian shortly after Cheltenham. If not, I expect the Skeltons to keep placing horses with good odds at the Midland and southern tracks until he gets ahead.
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