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Artemis,
Cheers mate :( , I’m really looking forward to the jumps season now!
So far, I’m holding my own with NH predictions, although its usually the favourite. I am still paper trading at the moment, and until my good lady forgives me for losing my betting bank I may start punting for real in the new year.
Interesting stuff.
Can anybody point me in the direction where I can read about biorhythems? – perhaps after the showdown this weekend!
Artemis,
Thanks for continuing to giving us an insight into your method and predictions.
Do find any difference in results for your method between Flat and NH?
This is my first year I have concentrated on speed rather than form so I am a bit wary about the new NH season.
Personally, I would need a system that had at least a 25% strike rate otherwise I would quickly lose confidence. I’m not sure on the statistical longest losing run would be but when it comes to putting money down, it needs to be fairly short.
On the other hand, the small margins that your proposed system would produce would leave you feeling low even if you had a winner.
What sort of strike-rate / returns would you be comfortable with Dave?
Will you be running this system on the board?<br>
Artemis,
A very interesting view on the going. I tend to look at the top few rated, and then eliminate if the trend of their performances indicates that today’s going is unsuitable.
I use this method for other factors such as distance, class, trainer and course.
The formula goes something like:
1. Assess the last two form ratings:<br> 1st = 5 pts<br> 2nd = 3pts<br> 3rd = 2pts<br> 4th = 1pt
2. Apply points for C and D:<br> C = 1pt<br> D = 2pts<br> C and D = 3pts<br> CD = 3pts
A maximum is 13pts, and Clive provided evidence about backing all maxmium rated horses for a profit. I did a little research last night, and this formula has a good strike rate, but returns a level-stake loss at SP in recent years.
There are other factors to consider such as whether the horse has proven, progressive or promising form. For the time (1986), the book "Be a Successful Punter – With Fineform as your guide" is an interesting read, especially if you can find a copy like I did for £4.
I did speak with someone who said that the formula had evolved, and included points for the paper rating and BF as mentioned in my previous post, but I cannot find any evidence for this. From memory, I believe;<br>- top 3 rated by the paper were given 4pts<br>- first 3 in the betting were given 3 pts
Maximums are therefore 20pts.
Artemis,
I am sure I have a copy of the book kicking around somewhere (maybe still in a box after a house move). It was based on the last two runs, the top 3 paper ratings (e.g. RPR) and the first 3 in the betting. A couple of points were added for C and D winners.
A FineForm "Maximum" was 11 for the last two form figures, top rated by the paper, in the first 3 of the betting forecast and a CD winner.
This formula was to be used to highlight those runners that need the most attention for investigation. I seem to remember a confident claim about the top two rated doing quite well. One thing in the book I remember was to judge horses by their ability. For example, if a horse had won on the going, at the distance and class etc, then the horse’s ability was proven. If the horse had only competed at lower levels, and not proved itself at the new class, then this was progressive. I am sure there was another "p", since PPP is still rattling around my head. In any case, proven was preferred to progressive and the other "p".
I will have a dig around tonight for it.<br>
Cheers Dave for the explanation – it will take a bit of digestion.
Artemis – I used the Brimardon system when it was substantially cheaper. I thought it was average, with good and bad runs. It was the substantial manual entry of data that put me off. Since it went upmarket, with excessive pricing I have kept clear. But, just as Dave, I have read poor reviews about it, with many users asking for a refund. Check out Gummy Racing for more info.<br>
dave jay,
Thanks for the well worked example. Using this method, how many bets do you make a day?
Do you compare with the bookmakers odds, the paper’s odds or the odds available on Betfair?
If I understand what you are saying, you are not betting on which horse you think will win, but on the horse which appears to be good value (and within your limit).<br>
JAR,
I have enjoyed following your thread and exchanging comments and ideas. I think a lot of the computer systems at the budget end will find it difficult to make a consistent profit. If I ever develop such a program, I will either keep it to myself, or make sure I sell it for a high price.
For those computer systems based on a database, at least you can check back the previous years to see if the system works. I’m sure I read in one of Nick Mordin’s books that systems only work for so long, and by the time you spot a trend, the betting market has already moved to cover it. It could be that a minor alteration of the system could still return a profit.
Keep the faith, and find a new angle.<br>
Artemis – Thanks for your reply. When I was young and keen I had the RP delivered everyday, and as you say, it became a scribble pad. Back then I would use either the Fineform (variation of) or C/D systems during the week, but on Saturday’s I would spend a good 4 or 5 hours studying the form on 1 or 2 races. The former ticked over with probably a small loss, whereas the latter made a reasonable profit. But the profit was never enough to justify all the time spent. This was because my betting kitty was small, and I couldn’t stomach losing a £20 bet (or more).
A wife and family now mean I have very little time to devote to the game, so I have looked at systems based on data from various sources. I currently use the SSR product from Racing Sense that uses the Solidus ratings. I don’t use the ratings as such, but the database is great to devise my own systems. There are timings for each horse, so I could in theory develop a speed rating and go on from there.
dave jay – I would be very interested to see an example race with ratings and prices.<br>
