Produce Your Own Ratings from RP

[Artemis]

Yes, Dave, perhaps I have too much faith in their judgement. I know they might have legitimate reasons for letting the horse run – perhaps no suitable alternative race – but if the horse cannot do itself justice, it does question the trainer’s judgement.

Today’s qualifying bets:

Donc  4.05 Dramaticus 130(+14) 20pts win  unpl<br>Newb 2.10 Wedding Party 120(+13) 20pts win  2nd<br>          4.20 Ma Yahab 102(+14) 10pts win NR<br>          4.55 Parnassus 91(+16) 10pts ew unpl<br>Kemp 2.15 Three Welshmen 126(+14) 10pts ew unpl<br>          2.50 Mister Flint 146(+13) 10pts win unpl<br>          3.20 Rigmarole 170(+14) 20pts win  won 4/5

Stakes 110pts  loss 74pts     <br>

(Edited by Artemis at 10:05 am on Oct. 24, 2004)

[dave jay]

Or perhaps the Trainer is running it for completely different reasons? Reduce HCP mark, pressure from the owners, who knows what else ??

BTW, I have Mister Flint as the best bet of the day down in my book, with Rigmarole a close second.

:crossfingers:

For both of us … :biggrin:

[Artemis]

Interestingly, a few trainers interviewed today on C4 said they were running horses on what they thought was the wrong ground, but since they were here why not take a chance. Jim Mcgrath said that in the States they take the attitude of just letting them run even if the going is unfavourable. If they get beat, so be it.<br>Today’s going was extreme, but not unusual given our climate and the finishers were well spread out even in 6 and 7f races. I’m going to have a look through the week’s results and see if the winners and placed horses were easily identifiable soft/heavy ground specialists, just for interest.

I put Rigmarole into the naps competition because I’ve been napping the horse with the highest figure of the  final rating + the figure that appears in brackets. This gives the best class qualifier of the day. I may have to vary this approach later in the naps contest to try and catch those who have been lucky(or skillful) enough to find decent priced winners.

[Artemis]

I am making a change to the criterion I use for deciding whether or not to rate any particular race. Rather than look at races which are grade D or better, I have decided to lookat races according to the value of the RPR top-rated, as follows:

Flat      Minimum value of RPR 90<br>Jumps  Minimum value of RPR 120

This won’t make a great deal of difference, but seems more sensible than using grade D or better, because there are quite a few moderate maiden races and novice races which are grade D. There are also some fair grade E handicaps, especially over the jumps which have a RPR  top-rated of 120+. I wouldn’t expect to find much on the AW where the RPR top- rated is  90+.<br>After making the adjustments, and adding in the positive factors, the lowest rating on the flat for qualifying horses would be about 95, and for the jumps about 125.

Today’s qualifying bets:

Aint  1.45 Glacial Evening 139(+12) 10pts win unpl<br>        3.55 Gatorade 128(+17) 20pts win 2nd<br>Winc 2.25 Marjina 135(+12) 10pts win  2nd

Stakes 40pts  Loss 40pts<br>Weekly Total Stakes 490pts  loss 187 pts<br>Running total(since Sep 23rd)<br>Stakes 3,222 pts  loss 92 pts(-2.8%)

(Edited by Artemis at 7:11 pm on Oct. 24, 2004)

[Artemis]

Just a couple of qualifyers on the bare minimum at Lingfield today:

Ling 1.40  Kandidate 108(+10) 10pts win  2nd<br>        2.10  Musical Day 100(+10) 10pts win  won 7/2

Stakes 20pts   profit 25pts<br>        

(Edited by Artemis at 6:38 pm on Oct. 25, 2004)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifyers:

Chel  2.00 Football Crazy 151(+10) 10pts win  won 8/15<br>         2.35 My Will 149(+11) 10pts win unpl<br>         4.55 Chockdee 135(+12) 10pts win  won 5/2

Stakes 30pts   profit 20pts

(Edited by Artemis at 6:12 pm on Oct. 26, 2004)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifying bets:

Yarm  1.40 Muraabet 102(+11) 10pts win  unpl<br>          2.50 Kerashan 106(+14) 10pts ew  unpl<br>          4.35 Ofaraby 115(+17) 20pts ew  won 7/2<br>Chel   2.00 Lord Gale 123(+11) 10pts win  unpl<br>          2.35 Lord of Illusion 123(+13) 10pts win  2nd<br>          5.30 Ardaghey 138(+10) 10pts win  unpl

Stakes 100pts   profit 24pts<br>Stakes

The last qualifyer, Ardaghey, is a little unusual because this is a NH flat race where no speed ratings are published. However, the horse managed to reach the qualifying score(+10 or better) on the strength of its RPR plus positive factors, so I have to include it.<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 7:10 pm on Oct. 27, 2004)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifying bets:

Taun   2.10 Kingston Town 131(+10) 10pts win unpl<br>           4.40 Bak to Bill 120(+14) 10pts win  unpl<br>Ling     2.50 Daniel Thomas 102(+13) 10pts win  won 4/6<br>           3.50 Mith Hill 96(+14) 10pts win  won 5/2<br>           5.20 Optimus 104(+20) 10pts win unpl<br>Stra    2.30 Old Marsh 133(+12) 10pts win  unpl

Stakes 60pts   loss 8pts<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 6:45 pm on Oct. 28, 2004)

[Artemis]

Ratings and Class

The following is an approximate comparison between the modified ratings  that I use and the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) and Topspeed ratings (TS) published in the Racing Post. The ratings are those given as the top–rated in the Racing Post,  after all weight adjustments have been made.<br>FLAT<br>Top-Class. Group 1 and Classic standard.<br>Mod 150+  RPR 135+ TS 125+<br>Group 1 <br>Mod 140+  RPR 125+ TS 115+<br>Group 2        <br>Mod 135+  RPR 120+  TS 110+<br>Group 3<br>Mod 130+  RPR 115+  TS 105+<br>Listed Class<br>Mod 125+  RPR 110+  TS 100+<br>Top Handicaps and other races  (Officially rated up to 110)<br>Mod 130+  RPR 115+   TS 105+<br>Top Handicaps and other races (Officially rated up to 105)<br>Mod 125+  RPR 110+    TS 100+<br>Handicaps and other races (OR up to 95)<br>Mod 115+  RPR 100+   TS 90+<br>Handicaps and other races (OR up to 85)<br>Mod 105+  RPR 90+  TS 80+<br>Handicaps and other races (OR up to 80)<br>Mod 100+   RPR 90+  TS 80+<br>Maiden Races<br>Mod  95+  RPR 90+  TS 80+

<br>All other races:<br>Mod        RPR      TS<br>90+          80+       70+<br>80+          70+       60+<br>70+          60+       50+<br>60+          50+       40+<br>50+          40+       30+

JUMPS

Top-Class Chases<br>Mod 185+  RPR 170+  TS 160+<br>High Class Chases and Best Hurdles Races<br>Mod 175+  RPR 160+  TS 150+<br>Very Useful Chases and Hurdles Races<br>Mod 165+   RPR 150+  TS 140+<br>Useful Chases and Hurdles Races<br>Mod 155+   RPR 140+  TS 130+<br>Decent Chases and Hurdles Races<br>Mod 145+  RPR 130+  TS 120+<br>Fair National Hunt Races<br>Mod 130+  RPR 120+   TS 110+<br>Other Races:<br>Mod      RPR      TS<br>120+     110+     100+<br>110+     100+       90+<br>100+     90+         80+

<br>

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifying bets:

Newm  1.30  Oranmore Castle 112(+19) 10pts win unpl<br>            2.40  Batik 106(+17) 20pts win  unpl<br>            3.15  Spanish Don 137(+10) 30pts win  won 4/1<br>            5.00  Night Frolic 92(+10) 10pts ew  unpl<br>Weth   3.00  The Merry Mason 134 (+14) 10pts win                                                                                                     won  4/5<br>           4.00  Stamparland Hill 148 (+19) 30pts win unpl<br>Uttx     2.50  High Rank 125(+10) 10pts win 3rd

<br>Stakes 130pts  Profit 38pts  

(Edited by Artemis at 6:23 pm on Oct. 29, 2004)

[LookingForAWinner]

Artemis,

Thanks for continuing to giving us an insight into your method and predictions.

Do find any difference in results for your method between Flat and NH?

This is my first year I have concentrated on speed rather than form so I am a bit wary about the new NH season.

[Artemis]

I think you are right to be wary at the start of the NH season because it is generally a transitional period and the form takes a while to settle down. Summer and autumn form on decent ground has to be tested against horses reappearing after a lomg summer break. There is the added complication of horses switching between flat, NH flat, hurdles, chases and point to point.

I tend to stick with my method, only awarding form and speed points for racing under today’s code whether it be NH flat, hurdles or chases. Points for other positive factors such as jockeyship or the horse’s profile are transferable between codes, except for the horse’s win record specific to jumps or chases.

I would say that speed ratings can be just as reliable over jumps as they are on the flat, although only about a half of all jump races are run at a pace quick enough to generate meaningful speed figures. As a result, the RPRs assume more significance in the method I use and it is not unusual to end up with a horse as a qualifyer that is very well handicapped, is ridden by a top/usual jockey, has a very good profile, but has no recent significant speed rating.

I am not as confident with the jumps as the flat, mainly because I have no number that represents a horse’s ability to jump and its courage/will to win (although the horse’s profile can indicate its willingness to win). So, I would expect to make a smaller profit than the target of between 5 and 10 per cent on the flat.

[Artemis]

From a vast array of eligible races, I have concentrated on the best quality races for qualifying bets:

Weth  2.50 Sir Rembrandt  184(+11) 10pts win 2nd<br>          3.25 Crystal D’Ainay 171(+10) 10pts win 2nd<br>Chep  1.25 Football Crazy  154(+10) 10pts win unpl<br>Newm 2.05 Sunday Symphony 118(+18) 20pts win unpl<br>          2.35 Something Exciting 135(+16) 30pts win 2nd<br>          3.10 Take A Bow 141(+17) 30pts win 3rd<br>          4.55 Kingscross 112(+16) 20pts ew unpl<br>Ling    2.10 St Pirran 162(+12) 10pts win unpl

<br>Stakes 160pts  loss 160pts

The 4.55 at Newmarket isn’t a quality handicap, but I had worked out the ratings and Kingscross stood out, which is unusual for my ratings in this grade.

(Edited by Artemis at 5:45 pm on Oct. 30, 2004)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifying bets:

Hunt   2.50 Second Paige 130(+12) 10pts ew  unpl<br>Ling    12.25 Karen’s Caper 100(+18) 10pts win won 4/5<br>Carl    1.50 Simply Supreme 162(+11) 10pts win won 2/5<br>          2.25 Rising Generation 132(+15) 10pts ew won 6/1<br>          3.05 Ebony Light 160(+26) 20ptsew unpl

Stakes 100pts   profit 27pts<br>Weekly Total<br>Stakes 600 pts  loss 34 pts<br>Running Total (since Sep 23rd)<br>Stakes 3,822 pts  loss 126pts (-3.3%)

(Edited by Artemis at 6:39 pm on Oct. 31, 2004)

[Artemis]

<br>Today’s qualifyers:

Warw 1.50 My Will 145(+10) 10pts win  won 1/3<br>Redc   1.00 Game Lad 107(+17) 10pts win  won 5/4

Stakes 20pts    profit 16pts

(Edited by Artemis at 7:14 pm on Nov. 1, 2004)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Catt 1.00 Consider This 115(+22) 10pts win unpl<br>Folk  2.40 Ammonias 131(+10) 20pts win unp<br>Exet 1.50 Escomiteur 138(+11) 20pts win unpl(Fell)<br>        2.20 Chilling Place 131(+10) 20pts win won 10/11<br>        3.20 Sporazene 163(+16) 20pts win unpl(Fell)

Stakes 90pts  loss 52pts

(Edited by Artemis at 6:39 pm on Nov. 2, 2004)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Muss 1.30 Consider This 105(+19) 10pts ew  2nd 4/1<br>         2.35 Imperial Echo 111(+18) 20pts ew  unpl<br>Newt 2.15 Say What You See 138(+11) 20pts win 2nd<br>Kemp 1.20 Galano 123(+10) 20pts win  unpl<br>         4.00 Lord Seamus 141(+19) 30pts win  unpl

Stakes 130pts   loss 108pts  

(Edited by Artemis at 8:58 am on Nov. 4, 2004)

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