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Bang 2.50 Brown Teddy 135(+15)  20pts win@4/1+<br>2nd 3/1 tchd 10/3, 1NR 7/1, reduced acceptable price to 7/2 NO BET<br>Uttx  1.30 The Sister 137(+13) 10pts ew@6/1+<br> pulled up 4/1, op5/1 NO BET<br>Ling  3.30 Eccentric 143(+16)  20pts ew@11/2 generally<br> won 7/2 op 5/1 +132pts<br>      4.05 Katiypour 129(+17) 20pts ew@5/1+<br> unpl 4/1 tchd 9/2 1NR 10/1 acceptable price 9/2 -40pts<br>      5.35 Steely Dan 109(+13) 10pts ew@7/1+<br> unpl 7/1 -20pts
A profit of 72pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 6:43 pm on Mar. 19, 2005)
One possible today:
Font  2.15 Mister Mustard 131(+13) 20pts win@6/4+, unlikely.<br> won 1/1 tchd 11/10, 1NR 9/1 made the acceptable price 11/8 NO BET
(Edited by Artemis at 7:00 pm on Mar. 20, 2005)
Weekly Total
Stakes  420pts     profit  52pts
Running Total(since February 21st)
Stakes 1,540pts    profit 251pts
Total Sep 23rd, 2004 to Feb 20th(Posted on this thread)
Stakes 11,327pts     loss 171pts
Total Jun 28th, 2004 to Sep 22nd(Not posted on the forum)
Stakes 10,218pts      profit 229pts
Overall, almost a break-even situation since I began using the present version of the ratings method. Everything before February 21st was at SP. Since last month I have been putting minimum prices to each selection which is, in my opinion, a more professional approach. It means you miss winners, but no-one who is serious about making racing pay bets at SP – although SP is a fair measure of performance. The profits of most tipping services would be much reduced, or the losses increased, if all advised bets were calculated at SP.
I am hoping that the new approach of advising prices will boost the profits of the ratings method, although I would not expect a return better than around 10 per cent. I don’t believe returns higher than this figure from betting are sustainable in the longer term, except perhaps by very dedicated professionals or lucky hits on multiple/jackpot type bets.
Today’s possibles:
Sout 2.30 Sundried Tomato 98(+13) 10pts ew@8/1+<br> unpl 13/2, op7/1tchd 15/2 NO BET
    3.00 Queen Of Night 105(+19)  20pts@9/4+<br> unpl 4/1 -30pts
    4.30 Marinaite 93(+10) 20pts@4/1<br> won 7/2 op4/1 +80pts
Ling  3.20 Kempsey 97(+12) 10pts ew@10/1+<br> unpl 14/1 -20pts
    4.50 Selma 10pts ew@5/1+<br> unpl 9/2 op 9/2 1NR 25/1 NO BET
        Grezie 10pts ew@12/1+    <br> 3rd 9/1 op8/1 1NR 25/1 NO BET
Profit on the day 30pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:59 pm on Mar. 21, 2005)
Artemis,
Thanks for your excellent contribution to the Forum I keep a regular eye on your postings, sadly I rarely get a chance to "work them out" in the week, but at weekends am always encouraged when my method comes up with the same selections as yours eg Mr Mustard yesterday, I took the price of 5/4 as I felt it met all the criteria eg course win, form at trip etc.
Well done for continuing to keep updating your system, look forward to seeing whether the price consideration improves performance further.
Thanks, Ollie
I’m fairly confident the price consideration will help the profitability. The prices are guided by the RP forecast, a quick look at Betfair and Oddschecker sites, and intuition. There are bound to be plenty of ‘NO BET’ situations at the smaller tracks where no early prices are available, but the bigger meetings should be alright.<br>Wherever possible, I will take the morning price if it favourable and generally available. I don’t think it’s any good quoting Betfair or other exchange prices because there’s no guarantee you can get a decent bet on.
I also follow this with interest Artemis … if I am right in my reading of things I think you could really struggle to make a profit from now until the start of May.
The price consideration is a must, IMO .. !!
Keep going, watching with interest, mate.
Hi Dave
I think you are right on both counts. This period is a very difficult one for anyone following ratings because of the transition from AW to turf(flat) and the going change(jumps). On the positive side, good recent form can be decisive in the early weeks of the turf, so I’m hoping that this factor can compensate for transitional problems.
With regard to the prices, It was always going to be very difficult to make a profit at SP. I’ve stuck with it because it is a fair test of any system. There are a few approaches on the forum which are making SP profits, notably Seagull’s excellent ‘Trainer’ approach and kersly’s pointers, which is based on the same data that I use (only kersly’s is more selective). Seagull’s method finds some very big priced winners, which mine rarely does if I stick with the top-rated, so I’m prepared to look a bit further down the ratings for value. I think that this might be the key to improving profits.
Three possibles today, all clear top-rated, so no big prices:
Weth  5.15 Heidi III 135(+18) 30pts@2/1+<br>2nd 15/8 tchd 9/4 -30pts<br>Exet   3.20 Presence Of Mind 131(+19) 30pts@4/1+(or  20pts ew if the price is greater than 9/2)<br>NR <br>      3.55 East Lawyer 148(+17) 20pts@5/2+       <br>2nd 6/4 tchd 15/8 2NRs 7/2,8/1 making the acceptable price 13/8 -20pts
A loss on the day of 50pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:58 pm on Mar. 22, 2005)
Two for today:
Chep  3.50 Isard Du Buard 133(+16) 20pts win@5/2+<br> 3rd 5/2 -20pts<br>      4.25 Miss Fahrenheit 139(+16) 10pts ew@6/1+<br> unpl 13/2 -20pts
A loss of 40pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 9:14 am on Mar. 24, 2005)
Just one possibble today:
Wolv 4.10 Imco Sasihill 104(+17) 30pts win@3/1+<br> unpl 5/2f -30pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:35 am on Mar. 26, 2005)
Carl  3.40 Indalo 147(+18) 20pts ew@5/1+<br>won 6/1 +144pts<br>     4.15 Roobihoo 135(+16) 10pts ew@ 10/1<br>3rd 6/1 op 13/2 2NRs 11/2, 10/1, acceptable price 15/2 NO BET<br>Kemp 3.25 Dunaskin 126(+12) 10pts ew@18/1 generally available.<br>3rd 16/1 +35pts
    5.05 Briannsta 105(+13) 10pts ew@10/1+<br>2nd 10/1, op12/1 tchd 14/1 +20pts<br>Newt 3.30 Dunster Castle 134(+14) 20pts@3/1+<br>unpl 7/2 -20pts
    4.35 Saby 130(+15) 10pts ew@6/1+<br>unpl 10/3jf op 11/2 1NR 10/1, acceptable price 11/2 -20pts
A profit of 159pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 8:45 am on Mar. 27, 2005)
Nothing today.
The jump races didn’t produce any horse with the minimum requirement of (+13).
The ratings for the flat racing at Musselburgh didn’t produce any clear top-rated. There were about six horses rated very close together in each race. This is quite typical of early season handicaps because there are no recent speed ratings to boost the ratings.
Weekly Total
Stakes 310pts profit 69pts
Running Total(since Feb 21st)
Stakes 1,850pts profit 320pts
(Edited by Artemis at 12:44 pm on Mar. 27, 2005)
Kemp  3.15 Eisteddfod 128(+13) 20pts@3/1+<br>3rd 11/4 tchd 10/3 -20pts<br>      4.25 Ameeq 101(+12) 10pts@5/2+<br>unpl 7/2jf -10pts<br>       5.00 The Composer 104(+12) 10pts ew@ 6/1+ <br>NR
Loss of 30pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 8:51 am on Mar. 29, 2005)
<br>Pont 2.25 Royal Jet 96(+17) 10ptsew@5/1+<br>NR<br>     3.35 Norton 112(+13) 10pts ew@8/1+<br>unpl 8/1 -20pts<br>     4.45 Settlement Craic 110(+11) 10ptsew@ 9/1+<br>unpl 7/1 op 8/1 NO BET<br>     5.20 Improvise 96(+17) 10pts win@5/2+ <br>Won 11/8f tchd 15/8 1NR 100/1 no effect<br>NO BET<br>     5.50 Kylkenny 101(+12) 10pts ew@5/1+<br>3rd 4/1 op10/3 NO BET
A loss on the day of 20pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:32 pm on Mar. 29, 2005)
Folk 5.10 Duelling Banjos 99(+14) 20pts win@7/2+<br>won 7/4f, op 11/8 2NRs 10/3, 5/1 acceptable price 42/20              NO BET<br>Exet 3.30 Kittenkat 145(+14) 10pts ew@ 7/1+<br>2nd 15/2 op 6/1    +7pts<br>    4.00 Headliner 138(+14) 20pts@7/2+<br>NR
7pts profit on the day. <br><br>In case anyone is puzzled by the adjustments for NRs, I reproduce the following from a previous post.
Adjusting prices for Non-runners and Withdrawals
All recommended prices for horses are subject to a reduction when there are NRs and/or withdrawals.<br>There is a formula that can be used to work out what the revised price should be. The only information needed is a notional or actual price for the horse(s) that don’t take part in the race. These prices need to be converted into percentage probabilities before they are used in the formula. Tables of prices and their percentage probabilities are published regularly in the Racing Post.
Using Fractional Odds
New or revised odds  =  suggested/existing odds X     (100 – P)/100<br>                    ÂÂÂ
Where P is the sum of the percentage probabilities of all horses that will not take part in the race.
Example <br>The recommended odds are 5/2, and there are two NRs which were expected to be 8/1 and 5/1(forecast odds in RP). The probabilities for these odds are 11 and 17. Therefore P = 11+17 = 28
New odds  =  2.5   X    (100 – 28)/100  =  1.8 (or 9/5)
Using Decimal Odds
New or revised odds  =  [(recommended odds – 1) X  (100 – P/100)]  + 1
Using the same data as in the fractional  odds example<br>5/2 = 3.5 in decimal odds                   ÂÂÂ
new odds   =   [(3.5 – 1) X (100 – 28/100)] +1   = 2.8 (9/5 in decimal odds)
<br>(Edited by Artemis at 5:26 pm on Mar. 30, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:33 pm on Mar. 30, 2005)
<br>Donc  1.50 Archie Babe 96(+12) 10pts ew@10/1+<br>unpl 12/1 -20pts<br>      2.20 Top The Charts 10pts win@4/1+, or 10pts ew@5/1+<br>3rd 10/3 op 4/1tchd 9/2 -10pts<br>      3.25 Merlin’s Dancer 120(+12) 10pts ew@14/1+<br>won 16/1 +200pts <br>      4.00 Autumn Glory 140(+13) 20pts@5/2+<br>won15/8jf tchd 2/1 NO BET<br>          Calcutta 20pts win@14/1+<br>unpl 25/1 -20pts
A profit on the day of 150pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:37 am on April 1, 2005)
<br>Donc 2.20 Granston 113(+14) 10pts ew@9/1 generally available<br>unpl 15/2 -20pts<br>         Oddsmaker 10pts ew@25/1 gen. av.<br>unpl 16/1 -20pts<br>     2.55 Polish Emperor 122(+13) 10pts ew@11/2+<br>unpl 6/1 -20pts<br>         Matty Tun 121(+12) 10pts ew@12/1+<br>unpl 12/1 -20pts<br>     4.05 Seyaadi 90(+12) 10pts win@5/2+<br>unpl 4/6 op4/5 2NRs 11/4, 3/1 acceptable price 6/5 NO BET/color]<br>Ling  5.00 Quel Fontenailles 102(+17) 20pts ew@5/1+<br>unpl 7/1 -20pts
A loss on the day of 120pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:42 pm on April 1, 2005)
Donc 2.10 Counsel’s Opinion 133(+13) 20pts win@9/2<br>won 9/2 +90pts<br>Newb 2.25 Bee And Bee 154(+13) 10pts ew@11/2+<br>2nd 4/1 NO BET<br>      3.00 Tanikos 152(+20) 30pts win@5/2+<br>unpl 9/4 op 11/4 -30pts<br>      3.35 Zaffaran Express 10pts ew@7/1+<br>3rd 5/1 tchd 11/2 NO BET
a profit of 60pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 6:10 pm on April 2, 2005)
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