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The formula goes something like:
1. Assess the last two form ratings:<br> 1st = 5 pts<br> 2nd = 3pts<br> 3rd = 2pts<br> 4th = 1pt
2. Apply points for C and D:<br> C = 1pt<br> D = 2pts<br> C and D = 3pts<br> CD = 3pts
A maximum is 13pts, and Clive provided evidence about backing all maxmium rated horses for a profit. I did a little research last night, and this formula has a good strike rate, but returns a level-stake loss at SP in recent years.
There are other factors to consider such as whether the horse has proven, progressive or promising form. For the time (1986), the book "Be a Successful Punter – With Fineform as your guide" is an interesting read, especially if you can find a copy like I did for £4.
I did speak with someone who said that the formula had evolved, and included points for the paper rating and BF as mentioned in my previous post, but I cannot find any evidence for this. From memory, I believe;<br>- top 3 rated by the paper were given 4pts<br>- first 3 in the betting were given 3 pts
Maximums are therefore 20pts.
Thanks, lfaw
Seems a reasonable approach for anyone looking for a very quick way to make a selection, although it has obvious limitations.
Including the top three rated horses and top three in the betting as qualifying for points seems sensible and logical. I have seen systems that are less sensible and logical than this, some of them costing money. It would be interesting if someone could monitor this method over a set period, although I suspect it is not sophisticated enough to make a profit.
This is probably the reason it is no longer advertised or promoted.
The Effect of the Draw
As far as my ratings are concerned the draw can make a difference of 6 points (-3 to +3) between horses.
It isn’t always easy to apply this factor to a particular race because of the variability of field sizes, changing going and watering policies.
There are a number of courses where there is a natural bias that seldom varies, irrespective of the going. Examples are Chester (Low), Beverley (HIgh in 5f, High in 7/8f), Catterick (Low in 6/7f).
Apart from my own experience, I usually check the track bias with:
1. Racing Post- Topdraw gives a course description and calculates the bias in lengths based on fairly recent data. Reasonably accurate but sometimes gets it horribly wrong when there is a sudden reversal of the bias. You have to excuse this because the deadline for the RP doesn’t allow last minute changes to be flagged up.
2. The Racing and Football Outlook (RFO) give an updated view of the effect of the draw (usually on page 4) every Tuesday for the coming week. They have a resident draw expert, Graham Wheldon, who also does some of the spotlights in the RP. Graham is a very good judge and doesn’t often call the bias incorrectly.
3. If the meeting is more than just the one day, the previous day’s results are worth a perusal to see if there is any obvious bias.  With one day meetings you have to rely on previous history unless you are at the track/watching on tv. However, your bets may be already on based on your assumptions, so it may be too late.
Once you have decided there is a definite advantage in the draw, it has to be quantified.<br>My rule of thumb is:
up to 5 runners………No points<br> 6 to 10 runners……1,2,3 (+ 0r -1, depending on high or low) and highest 3 in the draw, the same.<br>11 to 19………lowest and highest 3 (+ or – 1,2, or 3), depending on degree of bias. <br>20 or more runners is the same as above except that I’d be + or – 2 or 3).
e.g 16 runners  very strong Low bias e.g 5f Chester
Drawn 1,2 3   +3<br>      4,5,6   +2<br>      7,8    +1<br>      9,10    0<br>      11,12   -1<br>       13,14  -2<br>      15,16  -3
A few points.
If a well drawn horse misses the kick, and it is a front runner, it often cannot get back into the race.
Horses coming across from an unfavourable draw to contest the lead can cause mayhem as well as using up vital energy in having to be hard ridden so early in the race.
Not many(relatively speaking) horses enjoy racing alone or in a small group when they are aware of a much larger group in the vicinity.
The most important factor in a race for most horses is that they obtain a clear passage when making their challenge. If momentum is lost it is difficult to regain it especially if the early/middle pace is slow.
The above points can be closely linked to the horse’s draw, but chance (unquantifiable) plays a big part. ÂÂÂ
Finally, I see no reason why the draw shouldn’t be given more or less preference in any set of circumstances, but I’d be very surprised if it made more than about 10lbs difference unless one side of the track was firm and the opposite side only good to firm. If the bias was any bigger than that, the Clerk of the Course and groundsmen are failing in their jobs.
(Edited by Artemis at 4:12 pm on Sep. 24, 2004)
As from today, I’ll be posting occasional selections (derived from the method outlined at the head of this thread) on this part of the forum rather than the betting tips section. This is so that I can keep a running total of profit/loss and try to deal with queries and comments as they arise.
A profitable day yesterday,+ 72 pts from stakes of 110 pts. <br>Today’s selections are from Ascot, where the racing is very high quality – I haven’t really looked elsewhere, except for my weekly stab at the Scoop6.
Ascot 1.55 Perfectperformance 133(+19) 40pts win <br> 2.30 Playful Act 138(+21) 30pts win <br> 3.00 The Tatling 144(+20) 30pts win <br> 4.10 Soviet Song 156(+23) 30pts win <br> 4.45 Tarfah 134(+26) 20pts ew <br> 5.20 Mana D’Argent 116(+16) 10pts ew
Thanks Dave. Winners have been easy to find over the last three days. It won’t always be so. My long term profit target is between 5 and 10 per cent, and I think that is attainable using basic form ratings plus about half a dozen additional positive factors.
Yesterday returned a profit of 129 from 170 staked.
Quite a few selections today which qualify being rated at least +10, and also 3 points clear of their nearest rival. The staking method is between 10 and 50 points  depending on the horse’s ratings and the scores of its opponents.
+25 or more and +5 or more ahead of nearest rival is a maximum 50 pts or 20 pts ew
+20 and +5 or more ahead is30/40 pts win or 20 pts ew
+15 and +3 or more ahead is20/30 pts win or 20 pts ew
+10 and +3 or more ahead is 10/20 pts win or 10 pts ew
maximum bet in maiden races is 10 pts win or ew.
Today’s selections:
Ascot 4.20 Pagan Prince 125(+16)  20 pts ewunplaced<br>      4.55 Corrib Eclipse131 (+15) 10 pts winunplaced<br>Musselburgh 3.00 Yenaled 96(+14) 10 pts win won 7/2<br>           4.10 Succession 107 (+21) 40 pts winwon 4/5<br>           4.45 Toni Alcala 104 (+20)  20 pts ewunplaced<br>Huntingdon  2.10 Tiger Frog 134 (+16) 20pts win unplaced            <br>           3.20 Lincoln Place 148 (+13) 10pts winunplacedÂÂÂ
(Edited by Artemis at 10:31 am on Sep. 26, 2004)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:23 am on Sep. 27, 2004)
A losing day yesterday( stakes 170, loss 53), but a very good week, Thursday to Sunday (stakes 540, win 245)
Today’s bets:
Hamilton 4.20 Just a Fluke 111 (+14) 10 pts ew onpl<br>Bath     3.10 Battledress 107 (+17) 10 pts win unpl <br>        3.40 Principessa 101 (+21)  10pts ew 2nd 6/1<br>Windsor  2.00 Speightstown 95(+11) 10pts win won 5/4<br>        2.30 Clove 108 (+17) 20pts ew unpl<br>        3.00 Eva Soneva So Fast 97 (+11) 10pts win won 5/4<br>        5.30 Indiana Blues101(+15) 10pts ew won 4/1
Stakes 130pts +8pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:04 am on Sep. 28, 2004)
Not much today with most of the qualifying races having no clear top-rated horse, and prices look a bit tight for exactas.
Nottingham 4.10 Trilemma 30 pts win won evens<br>          4.40 Thistle  10 pts win 2nd 11/4
<br>Stakes 40pts Profit 20pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:30 am on Sep. 29, 2004)
Todays top – rated qualifying bets:
Salisbury  3.30 Subyan Dreams104 (+13)  10pts win- unpl<br>         4.30 Yajbill 123 (+19) 20pts win -won 5/2<br>Newcastle 3.50 Crosspeace 102 (+15) 10pts win – won 4/5<br>         5.10 Pintle 106 (+17) 20 pts win -won 2/1<br>Nottingham 3.50 Straw Bear 122 (+27) 50pts win – 3rd<br>          4.20 Barathea Blue 95 (+13) 10pts win – won 7/4
Stakes 120pts Profit 36pts
(Edited by Artemis at 8:42 am on Sep. 30, 2004)
There is some excellent racing today, but the ratings method I use indicates that not many horses stand out as betting opportunities. In the Cheveley Park, for instance, the entire field is covered by only 5 points, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a shock result.
Today’s selections:
Goodwood  2.05 Succession 105 (+22) 30pts win- 3rd<br>Newmarket 3.00 Diktatorial 129(+17)  20pts win – won 3/1<br>          4.05 Clueless 104(+10)    10pts win – 3rd<br> <br>Stakes 60pts profit 20pts
<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:43 am on Oct. 1, 2004)
Thanks LFW. The ratings are working out well, although I would expect the profitability to level out to around 5 to 10 percent. I would be happy with that. The turf racing is coming to an end and it wii take a while before the AW form produces useable speed ratings on Wolverhampton’s new surface. Also, I only look at grade D and above, so betting opportunities in this sphere are necessarily limited.
The jumps provides betting opportunities but because of movement of horses between NH flat, hurdles and chases, not to mention horses moving over from the flat (turf and AW), the form is not so easily interpreted. However, flat form is usually overvalued when translated to the jumps, so good value is often available for those horses with proven jumps form and this helps to keep profit levels up.
Today’s qualifying bets:
Newmarket 2.25 Pentecost 140(+13) 10pts ew unpl<br>          4.10 Dawn Surprise 124(+14) 10pts win 2nd<br>Lingfield 1.30 Dalisay 100(+10) 10pts win unpl<br>        2.00 Rusky Dusky 99(+15) 10pts win unpl
Stakes 50pts Lose 50pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:36 am on Oct. 2, 2004)
There is a very long list of qualifying bets today, no less than twelve! It’s a day when any ratings method can look a bit foolish if it ends up with a (not inconceivable) blank. Anyhow, keeping the faith, here goes:
Epsom 2.40 Grand Place 107(+18) 20pts ew unpl<br>      4.55 Uig 107(+17) 10pts win 2nd <br>Newm. 2.00 Caitlin 102(+17) 20pts ew unpl<br>      2.30 Umniya 124(+13) 10 win unpl<br>      4.30 Flamboyant Lad 120(+18) 20pts ew <br> won 11/2<br>      5.05 Encouragement 104(+12) 10pts ew unpl<br>      5.35 Quarrymount 106(+17) 20pts win won 7/2<br>Redcar2.20 Sheboygan 101(+10) 10pts win won 4/1<br>      2.55 Caesar Beware 145(+24) 40pts win 2nd<br>      3.25 Vortex 135(+18) 20pts ew unpl<br>      4.35 Double Vodka 109(+15) 20pts win unpl<br>Chep. 3.00 Jacquemari Colombe 159(+16) 20pts ew.<br>   unpl
Stakes 330pts Loss 13pts
(Edited by Artemis at 10:03 am on Oct. 3, 2004)
No Cigar yesterday, but no egg on face either. The quality racing today is at Longchamp – I was there in 1970 when Sassafras just pipped Nijinsky. It’s difficult to get speed ratings for some of the runners, so it isn’t possible to rate them properly. In the Arc, Grey Swallow has the best recent form (last 60 days) and in the Prix De L’Abbaye, Patavellian and The Tatling come out equal top, but none of them qualify because of the lack of information about their rivals.
Today’s qualifying selections:
Uttoxeter 3.40 Made In France 143(+11) 10pts win 2nd<br>Market Rasen 2.40 It’s Definite 121(+11) 10pts win     won 13/8<br>            3.50 Dabus 131(+15) 10pts ew unpl<br>Kelso       4.00 Gianluca 133(+17) 20 pts win unpl
<br>Stakes 60pts  Loss 34pts<br>Weekly Total<br>Stakes 790pts Loss 13pts<br>Running Total since September 23rd when I started posting selections on this thread:<br>Stakes 1,352 pts  Profit 260pts
<br>(Edited by Artemis at 9:45 am on Oct. 4, 2004)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:52 am on Oct. 4, 2004)
Today’s qualifying selections
Windsor 3.00 Quarrymount 112(+21) 30pts win 2nd<br>       4.00 Magic Sting 112(+19) 20pts win unpl<br>       4.30 Petrosa 106(+24) 10pts win unpl
Stakes 60pts Loss 60pts
There were no qualifying races (Grade D or better) at Plumpton, and at Pontefract no horse was 3 or more points clear in the ratings, a necessary stipulation to qualify as a selection.
(Edited by Artemis at 8:20 am on Oct. 5, 2004)
Todays qualifying bets
Catterick 5.10 Ben Casey 93(+13) 10pts win unpl<br>Huntingdon 3.20 Cullen Road 103(+11) 10pts win unpl<br>Stratford 2.30 Saby 136(+15) 30pts win 2nd<br>        5.00 Silencio 123(+13) 20pts win won 4/11
Stakes 70pts Loss 43pts
Some very short prices, but this ratings method makes no judgements on that score, nor does it filter out odds on qualifiers. I have some long held opinions on value when betting, but I’m trying to show that this method can produce between 5 and 10 per cent profit at SP, regardless of the odds and without getting on at early morning prices which may not be generally available. I’ve noticed that the majority of these selections do shorten in price, often close to the off because they are backed by people using computerised ratings systems who are using similar data and parameters. Before they place their bets they need to know how the market is moving.
(Edited by Artemis at 9:32 am on Oct. 6, 2004)
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