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Today’s qualifying bets:
Nott  1.25 Hidden Jewel 105(+13) 10pts win 3rd<br>     1.55 Doitforreel 101(+20) 30pts win 3rd<br>Hayd 2.40 Jake Black 143(+21) 30pts win 3rd<br>     4.15 Villon 136(+11) 20pts win won4/7
Stakes 90pts loss 58pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:11 pm on Nov. 4, 2004)
LFW,
Further to your interest in the use of speed ratings over the jumps, the following stats may be interesting:<br>According to the results section in the Weekender, last week’s jump racing produced only 33 races out of a possible 84 (40%) where the horse’s produced speed ratings within 20lb of the RPR.<br>During the same period on the flat, 52 races out of 66 (80%) produced speed ratings within 20lbs of the RPR.<br>This is a little exercise I perform from time to time to check the relationship between the speed and form ratings in the Racing Post and to see how many races are being run at a true pace. The above figures are typical of the flat racing season as a whole, although they are a bit higher than normal for the jumps because last week’s going was easier. This leads to a generally slower pace in distance races to enable horses to get home.<br>The main implication for using speed ratings over jumps is that they can be rather thin on the ground, so you have to give more attention to collateral form (RPR ratings) especially at this early stage of the jumps season.
Artemis,
Cheers mate :( , I’m really looking forward to the jumps season now!
So far, I’m holding my own with NH predictions, although its usually the favourite. I am still paper trading at the moment, and until my good lady forgives me for losing my betting bank I may start punting for real in the new year.
Interesting stuff.
Today’s qualifiers:
Font 3.10 Mouseski 139(+15) 20pts win won 5/6<br>Yarm 3.30 Kind Emperor 105(+21) 20pts ew unpl
Stakes 60pts loss 23pts
(Edited by Artemis at 8:49 am on Nov. 6, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Donc  1.20 Foreign Affairs 127(+14) 20pts win 2nd<br>      2.20 Texas Gold 137(+15) 20pts ew unpl<br>      2.55 Carte Diamond 120(+16) 20pts ew won 12/1<br>      3.25  Knock Bridge 107(+17) 20pts ew unpl<br>      4.00 Sendintank 113(+13) 20pts win won 10/11<br>Winc  1.35 Lordhalfnothing 128(+14) 20pts win unpl<br>      2.05 Comply or Die 150(+11) 20pts win won 8/13<br>      2.40 Petite Margot 138(+10) 10pts ew won 10/3<br>      3.10 Swansea Bay 164(+17) 20pts win unpl<br>      3.40 Howle Hill 173(+12) 10pts ew 3rd 7/2
Stakes 260pts profit 233pts
(Edited by Artemis at 10:51 am on Nov. 7, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Ayr  2.10 Garde Bien 130(+18) 30pts win NR<br>     3.40 Jefertiti 134(+17) 20pts win won 5/2<br>Sout 1.30 Jangleur De Collonges 135(+17) 30pts win<br> 2nd<br>MRas 2.50 Fin Bec 131(+14) 20pts win  unpl
Stakes 70 level
Summary<br>Weekly <br>Stakes 720pts profit 8pts<br>Running Total(6 weeks)<br>Stakes 3,542pts loss 118pts(-3.3%)
(Edited by Artemis at 6:37 pm on Nov. 7, 2004)
Only the one qualifier today:
Carl  2.20 Granit D’Estruval 149(+19) unpl
Stakes 30pts loss 30pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 8:29 am on Nov. 9, 2004)
I’ve been looking at the ratings for the jump racing and the AW and I feel I need to make a few changes to keep the points in line with those for the flat. This is important to keep the staking system consistent throughout the year.<br>The first change relates to Handicap Chases. I’ve noticed that the Racing Post Ratings(RPRs) are quite a bit higher in relation to the Official Ratings (ORs) than I expected them to be.  This is resulting in too much emphasis being given to the RPR in the points total and is producing higher scores in comparison with other jump races and flat racing. To compensate, I am adding 5lbs(points) to the adjusted OR in  all handicap chases in much the same way as I do with flat racing handicaps for horses aged 4+.<br>For example, if a top weight in a handicap chase is set to carry 11st 12lb and has an OR of 135, then the adjusted(to 12st) OR value for that race will be 135 +2 =137. I will then add 5 to this making the adjusted OR value 137+5=142.<br>This is the Form Base for the race. 142.<br>The Form Base in any race must be at least 7lbs below the RPR top-rated.<br>The Speed Base is 10lbs (points) below this figure 142 minus 10 = 132<br>If the top-rated RPR in the race is 150, the form points for that horse will be:<br>RPR  minus Form Base (minimum =0)<br>150 – 142 = 8 points<br>If that horse has a recent Topspeed(TS) rating (within last 60 days) of 138, the speed points awarded will be:<br>TS rating – Speed Base<br>138 – 132 = 6 points. (minimum =0)
The form points and speed points totals are then averaged ( added together and divided by 2, and rounded down to the nearest whole number) to give a composite total for form and speed. There are no negative numbers at this stage.
An explanation of the remainder of the points system is at the start of the thread.
The second change relates to the total number of points horses are scoring over jumps for their win/course/distance profiles and the jockey points. I knew this would be generally higher than on the flat because there are fewer runners per race and the best jockeys get the most mounts. It’s actually working out at about 3 to 4 points on average more than flat racing, so to bring jump racing into line with flat racing, I’m making the minimum qualifying score +13 instead of  +10.<br> <br>The third change relates to the AW where there are two relatively new surfaces at Wolverhampton and Southwell.  The main effect of these changes are the absence of speed ratings for Wolverhampton until standard times are published by the Racing Post. I’m not sure how Dave Edwards(Topspeed) will treat Southwell, but I don’t think he will produce ratings until he’s seen the times for a month or so. Another thing to consider is the practical difficulties in awarding points for a horse’s record at the course because the nature of the courses have changed. A horse might have a very good record on the fibresand at Wolverhampton, but this cannot be taken as a definite positive factor when it runs on the new polytrack surface at that course. So, any points awarded for a horse’s course record are specific to the surface it races on today.  The combination of the above factors might depress the AW points totals  until the new surfaces have been used for a while.  The qualifying score on the AW remains the same as the flat i.e. +10
The AW points system:<br>Form points = RPR – Form Base<br>Speed Points =  Best Topspeed last 60 days – Speed Base<br> Positive Factor Points<br>Draw -2 to +2 (-3 to +3 on turf)<br>Jockey’s ability 0,1,2 or 3<br>Jockey’s record on horse last three runs 0,1,2 or 3<br>Horse’s win record (on AW only)  – for maiden only races, use place record (2nd or 3rd only) <br>20%+  2 <br>10%+  1<br>  5%+  0<br>  1%+  -1<br>0-2<br>Horse’s Latest Run on any surface – for maiden only races use place record  <br>Won         +2<br>Won in last 3  +1<br>won in last  5   0   <br>won in last 10  -1<br>no wins      -2
Horses Course Record (Today’s surface only) for maidens use place record<br>2 or more wins   +3<br>1 win           +2<br>placed          +1<br>no wins/places     0
Horse’s Record at today’s distance (7f or more) – ignore 5 and 6f <br>2 or more wins    +2<br>1 win            +1<br>No runs           0
Total Points  = (Form points + Speed points) divided by 2 and rounded down to nearest whole number<br> + Positive Factor points
Qualifying Score is Total Points minus Form Base and must be 10 or better  AND at least 3 points clear of nearest rival in the race to be a qualifying  bet.
<br>(Edited by Artemis at 12:29 pm on Nov. 8, 2004)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 7:08 pm on Nov. 8, 2004)
The revised points scoring method and qualifying criteria means that there are likely to be fewer qualifiers – much more in line with what I expected for this time of the year when speed ratings are thin on the ground.
Today, there are only two, but there would have been five if I hadn’t made the changes.
Hunt 1.40 Three Days Reign 136(+25) 40pts win won 11/8 <br>     2.40 Peccadillo 151(+15) 20pts win unpl
Stakes 60pts Profit 35pts
My staking method for jump racing has changed in line with the change in minimum qualifying criteria:
+13 to +17   20pts win or 10pts ew<br>+18 to +22   30pts win or 20pts ew<br>+23 to +27   40pts win or 20pts ew<br>+28 or more  50pts win or 20pts ew
Maiden Races over jumps  10pts win or 10pts ew ÂÂÂ
(Edited by Artemis at 4:33 pm on Nov. 9, 2004)
Today’s qualifying bets:
Newb 3.00 Mighty Strong 145(+14) 20pts win2nd<br>Kels   1.35 Rising Generation 138(+19) 30pts winwon 11/4<br>      2.05 Interdit 137(+14) 20pts win2nd<br>Ling   1.45 Seeking A Way 99(+16) 10pts winunpl
Stakes 80pts Profit 32pts<br> ÂÂÂ
(Edited by Artemis at 7:08 pm on Nov. 10, 2004)
Today’s qualifying bets:
Wolv  4.40  La Puce 95(+11)  20pts win 2nd<br>      5.30  Greenwich Meantime 97(+14) 20pts win3rd<br>Ludl   2.30 Manoram 129(+14) 20pts win unpl<br>Stakes 60pts Loss 60pts
(Edited by Artemis at 10:05 am on Nov. 12, 2004)
Artemis,
According to the results section in the Weekender, last week’s jump racing produced only 33 races out of a possible 84 (40%) where the horse’s produced speed ratings within 20lb of the RPR. <br>During the same period on the flat, 52 races out of 66 (80%) produced speed ratings within 20lbs of the RPR. <br>
Can this figure be broken down into Race class or perhaps number of runners?
I am curious if higher class races are run more consistently close to the standard times, and a higher number of runners may also encourage a faster time.<br>
LFW,
I don’t think you can break it down by class, mainly because the Topspeed ratings are already adjusted for this. The standard times published in the RP are what you would expect from a horse rated 135 carrying 12st on good going, so the best horses ( RPR 160+) would be expected to be the time equivalent of 25+ lbs faster, whereas the poorest (RPR around 80) are 55lbs slower.<br>In my experience, you are more likely to get races run at a true pace in lower grade races because the best horses only tend to be stretched when the competition is hot, and top-class competitive racing is not as common as moderate but competitive racing.
The number of runners definitely has a bearing on the pace. Fields of four and five runners do not often race competitively until the last half-mile whereas large fields, particularly in handicaps, can often go off too quickly and set the race up for late closers.
I would say that Topspeed ratings are most reliable for decent grade (RPR120-155) handicap hurdlers as they tend to be involved in truly run races on a regular basis. High grade hurdles, with a few exceptions, are usually poorly contested and the pace can be false. Slightly below decent grade, there are usually too many improvers/unexposed well-handicapped horses to be confident about exsisting recent form.
Today’s qualifying bets:
Chel  1.10 Un Jour A Vassy 149(+14) 20pts win unpl<br>     2.55 Armaturk 181(+17)  10pts ewwon 11/2<br>     3.30 Comply Or Die 167(+17)  20pts win won evens<br>Newc 1.35 Beat The Heat 136(+15)  10pts win fell<br>Wolv  2.30 Up Tempo 99(+15) 20pts win 2nd<br>      3.40 Blythe Spirit 107(+17) 30pts win 2nd
Stakes 120pts Profit 6pts
(Edited by Artemis at 5:19 pm on Nov. 12, 2004)
Artemis,
Thanks for your reply. Before I read your post this lunchtime I did a little bit of research regarding racetimes and race grade. Your opinion is borne out by my results which showed the lower grade races can be run faster than the higher ones. This is not what I was expecting. I will have to think how I can include class into my calculations since speed is obviously not as decisive as I thought.
LFW,
Class is very important, but race times are absolute and once the going correction has been applied, the resulting speed ratings are usually trustworthy. If a rating looks too high, then there is almost always an error somewhere in the method or the timing/race distance/going correction. If no error can be found, the rating must be true, however unlikely this may seem.<br>Anyone who does their own ratings can get quite excited when they come across one of these rarities (and they are quite rare). I have been following Topspeed ratings for several years and examples of moderate horses running more than 10lbs above their RPR or OR equivalent are very rare, When this has happened, you can be sure the handicapper will put the horse up by 10lbs or more.
One notewothy point on class. If a horse returns a decent speed rating in say, class E, and then moves up to class D or even class C, off a lower weight, it is difficult for it to reproduce that rating. Horses dropping in grade are almost always able to run up to their rating.
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