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Great work Steve. Hope your selections continue to be fruitful. And, 7% is better than the Building Society :biggrin:
Good luck with your system.
I always find that my systems work well until<br>a) I put money on them<br>b) I publicise them<br>
I think you can also lump in those systems that use the betting forecast to help pick winners. This is such a variable and inconsistent factor that you can only use it as a rough guide at best.
I am sure I have spotted a reference to book on laying called "Losers into Winners"? Is this book valuable?
Can anybody shed any light on where to start with laying?
Looking For A Winner.
Barry,
I don’t see why not. Many software systems use speed ratings rather than form figures so there are a few options to tackle.
I suppose it is better to look at attributes that the general racing public ignore so that you can gain an advantage.
How is your system performing?
Looking For A Winner
Bogside,
You could gave a look at Racing Sense:<br>http://www.racingsense.com/download.htm which is based on the Solidus method, and its underlying database is MS Access.
JAR,
Its hard work running the system everyday and reporting back.
The bank looks like its taken a hammering recently but I think its due to the time of year with the Jumps getting quieter and the Flat just getting going.
I’m with you on African Dream today.
Best of luck.
Looking For A Winner.
Hi JAR,
I didn’t realise you had restarted this thread. Keep up the good work.
Looking For A Winner.
John,
I have never used Boxform. Is there any way to load historical data to help assess new systems?
Looking For A Winner.
It appears that successful punters need to find an angle that other people haven’t cottoned on to yet. Perhaps we are not just analysing the horses, but other punter strategies in order to find a niche.
Looking For A Winner.
Some interesting points there Artemis.
Perhaps with the right historical information you can use reverse logic. For example, say that wins/runs% is a strong factor in Novice Chase races, but bears very little correlation in Handicap Hurdles, then you can either:<br>a) Vary the influence of a factor under certain conditions<br>b) Avoid betting where your factors perform worst<br>c) Make a bet based on a more unusal factor that exerts a stronger influence.
In the past I have included betting forecasts in my systems, but I didn’t find this factor influential. Where it does play a part is if there is insufficient information about a horse, but the forecast reflects other factors such as pedigree or trainer/jockey whispers. These all play there part, but it depends how much value you place on them. Nowadays, I use the forecast to highlight unknowns and then make a subjective decision. This does spoil the hard fact route, and it is also difficult to record for future analysis. If you were to use market values closer to the race start, then desk jockey’s like myself who only have a lunchbreak browse will miss out.
<br>Hope this adds more thoughts into the mix.
Looking For A Winner.
Nice to see this topic hotting up a bit.
Using a computer based system can help you compile all the knowledge about the horses in a race to arrive at a winner. Placing a bet is a different proposition. As mentioned by Nick Mordin in his numerous articles and books, you need to look at a race differently than everybody else.
For example, if your system is pointing to a horse A, but there is a hot favourite, horse B, that a shop punter might pick up on (e.g. Pipe/McCoy combo), then you can play your advantage.
I once used Brimarden, but as commented earlier it is now way too expensive. I remember many happy early mornings banging in the figures for Cheltenham. I have looked at a few demos for other systems, and looked at related forums, but none have really grabbed me, particularly those in my price bracket!
<br>Regarding my own system, I keep being tied up at the moment so my tip postings have not really materialised. I am currently converting my program so that I can use it at work and/or on my Palm. Once complete, I will be able to make selections without missing out on family life (as I keep being reminded!).
Looking For A Winner.
Thanks for your reply John.
I am hoping to get my own program up and running quite soon. It only works for NH at the moment. I have done some analysis of previous factor combinations looking back through historical results. Using another set of results I have come up with a short list of combinations that should produce a profit. Since I devised it, I haven’t had the time to use them due to family commitments – two boys – 3yrs and 10 months.
Within February I will attempt to put my selections on the tips forum, and perhaps compare to your postings.
Regards,
LookingForAWinner.
