June 4, 2004 at 08:06 #1458
I have been working on a laying system which is starting to look interesting, but would really value some thoughts and other ideas that could further improve it.
These are the basic rules:
There must be 4 out of 5
1. Horse must be between 1/2 and eves<br>2. Must be 5 or greater runners<br>3. 2nd Fav must be 3/1 or less<br>4. Fav must be drifting in the market<br>5. Must be positive support for 2nd Fav
The one big problem is you have to be in front of the computer for selections :angry:
I am currently working on 2 years back data but this is taking a long time.
In jan 2004 the system made 6.53 points from 16 bets 11 of which lost.
This assumed 5% commission and a prive that was 1.1 times SP, which seems quite accurate for short priced horses.
Potentially you could put quite high amounts of money on these selections.
Look forward to any initial thoughts and further suggestions.
All the bestJune 4, 2004 at 08:42 #53789ArtemisParticipant
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Seems a reasonable strategy but needs you to be at your desk during racing. Could certainly be used as one ploy, amongst a range of other ploys, to play the markets. Now if you had about 10 or 12 of these little ploys on the go, you might just be in business. Maybe Rich’s system could be one to include on the backing side.June 4, 2004 at 12:18 #53791LookingForAWinnerMember
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I am sure I have spotted a reference to book on laying called "Losers into Winners"? Is this book valuable?
Can anybody shed any light on where to start with laying?
Looking For A Winner.June 4, 2004 at 13:00 #53794RichNFordMember
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How exactly do you define ‘drifting in the market’ and ‘support’ for second fav? Would the fav have had to go from 4/11 out to 4/7, or would 1/2 be OK, how about from 4/9? And the second fav, would 7/2 into 3/1 be OK or are you looking for something more like 4/1 into 5/2?
If you can define these as part of the rules I may have enough data on my PC to possibly give you a list of year’s worth of qualifiers relatively quickly.
Food for thought…
Rich<br>June 4, 2004 at 20:20 #53795ACR1Member
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I think the fav in Dubawi’s race would’ve met your requirements.June 4, 2004 at 22:30 #53796
Thanks for your thoughts, yes it is a pain the arse to be in front of the screen, which is why I am hoping to refine a system that does not require this. However if this does work it might be worth giving up work :o
With regard to Rich, I am following, long term looks very impressive.June 4, 2004 at 22:37 #53798
If you could do a check that would be excellent.
Drifting in the market means the fav moves out from opening show, but stays in the range 1/2 to eves (however from Massey data it may be worth going out to 11/8).
Therefore if the horse goes fron 4/11 to 8/11 this would be a selection (1 of the 5 mentioned in the first post).
Support for the 2nd fav is that it moves in from the opening show. Just before the off, the price must be 3/1 or less – hope that makes sense.
If you need any further info let me know. Look forwrd to your results (hope it will be postive).June 4, 2004 at 22:42 #53800
Hi Looking for a winner
Just started spending some time looking at laying. To me stick to short priced horses such as my 5 rules above. Also things like X in trainer form or X in recent form may be worth considering – this is something I will be looking at in the future.
With regard to info – the best tends to be free on forums etc. If you have to sell your advice it cant be that good, because if it was you would be making enough money. Just look at relay services supplying so called tipsters.June 7, 2004 at 12:46 #53803snowmanParticipant
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Hi Paul, good luck with this. By the way THOROUGHLY endorse your opinion on info in your last post. One thought re your rules, if a short priced fav drifts in price, it is almost inevitable that the 2nd fav will shorten and not necessarily because it is supported, but just to keep the layers margins in status quo.
Again good luck.June 7, 2004 at 20:08 #53804dave jayMember
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Paul, why not lay the selections of the old 5/4 system ?
Best of luck with what you are doing there but I don’t think you will get out of sitting in front of the pc all day.June 8, 2004 at 07:37 #53808
Thanks for your thoughts, yes often the 2nd fav does come in, but not always and selections have to meet 4 out of 5 of the criteria.
Working my way through Feb and the first week has produced +3.75 pts, which is good considering the amounts you can easily lay.
Hopefully by the end of the week will have done the analysis to the end of March.<br>June 8, 2004 at 07:43 #53810
Have discussed with a couple of friends at the end of last year laying 5/4 selections, probably wish I had. Unfortunately now no longer get all the Massey info and what has happened to L. Taylor – followed him from ATR to the other site but that has disappeared now.
You are probably right about sitting in front of the pc for large parts of the day, however somebody may come up with something better – I live in hope.
If over a 24 month there is a similar track record then maybe I should be doing it full time :oJune 8, 2004 at 07:54 #53812MatronParticipant
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Lawrence Taylor has his ratings service again.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:June 8, 2004 at 16:39 #53813dave jayMember
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Paul, it’s not rocket science working out how Massey get his top rated, especially in non-hcp’s.
If you had the other top ratings I’m sure you would be able to work it out for the few qualifiers that are left. Or even leave to massey rating out altogether and filter them by price instead.June 11, 2004 at 08:34 #53814
Have just finished Feb 2004 analysis, this produced 3.37 pts. Therefore YTD is 9.9 points (Target 10).
However 5 pts a month is the target and both months reached 5pts by the 15th of each month, therefore there is an argument that prehaps you could take half the month off.
I will start on Mar this weekend and see what this brings.
The longest winning run was 4 and losing run was also4.
Look forward to any more thoughts, have not looked at the impact of postdata yet.
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