January 18, 2004 at 15:39 #1375
I’ve been out of the scene for just under a year, so I am doing some catching up.
I have played with a few computer based systems in the past, and I was going to have another look again.
What is Hot, and what is definitely Not at the moment?
Happy New Year to all, especially for those winning selections.
LookingForAWinnerJanuary 22, 2004 at 11:32 #51722MatronParticipant
- Total Posts 5825
Sorry, you have had no replies.
Looks like nobody on here is dabbling with software at the moment.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:January 22, 2004 at 13:01 #51725
I think you’re right. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I’ve noticed that there are a few RSB entries across the various forums. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I have been interested in RSB but the price puts me off. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I have used data from the old SSR database in the past, but it means handcoding my own queries.
LookingForAWinnerJanuary 30, 2004 at 11:10 #51727
Hi<br>I’v been away from the computer myself. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I tend to leave horse racing alone during the mid winter period.<br>When the weather is bad I can’t pick horses to save my life.:biggrin:
Computer Systems I have experience with, that are still out there, are Boxform and Compunter. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Both of these have web sites.
Boxform allows you to choose how many ratings (1 to 6 ) to use for analysis and also allows you to set the importance of each rating. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â It does not need updating and horses can be rated with or without the SP forecast.
Compunter offers several programs in once piece of software. These include the usual factors such as SP, newspaper handicap and speed ratings, form line, days since last race, trainer and Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â jockey parameters.<br>The trainer and jockey parameters need updating every few years or so.
Both program may be used with just a daily newspaper or a racing paper.The programs produce very similar win rates at similar overall average odds.
I find it best to use either of these in conjunction with a couple of favourite newspaper tipsters. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â They also give their best results on small non-handicap races.
However I find that the results they produce are little better than those of the " Fineform formulae". Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The formulae is available on many web forums for free.
I keep applying the programs to data, as part of a system, to see if I can improve profits from their use. I have also written a computer program of my own that produces results that are just as effective as the commercial programs. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â It has the advantage that I can alter it in any way I wish. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Also I know exactly how much importance it gives to each parameter.:)January 30, 2004 at 13:32 #51728
Thanks for your reply John.
I am hoping to get my own program up and running quite soon. It only works for NH at the moment. I have done some analysis of previous factor combinations looking back through historical results. Using another set of results I have come up with a short list of combinations that should produce a profit. Since I devised it, I haven’t had the time to use them due to family commitments – two boys – 3yrs and 10 months.
Within February I will attempt to put my selections on the tips forum, and perhaps compare to your postings.
LookingForAWinner.February 2, 2004 at 10:06 #51731
Hi Lookingforawinner<br>I wish you luck with your system.<br>A while back I decided to use the Access database and the Daily Express newspaper to collect parameters that influence horse races, with a view to developing a computer program.
I noted down each SPOT rated horse that had won and values of form rating, form-line, if C, D, S or F rated by the newspaper, days since last race, going win achieved on, number of tipsters selecting the horse, number of last time out winners and number of D rated horses in the race and if a trainer was in the top trainer list.
After collecting over 500 race results I was able to find those combination values of each parameter, using Access, that in combination achieved a win strike rate of 53% and a ROI of 14%.
This produced a system that worked fine for two years then made a massive loss on the third year of use.<br>I still have the method somewhere, I may dig it out to see how it performs this year.
From my own experience I can say good luck with your method but be very careful. A system can win for one or two years and then "bomb" making a massive loss the following year. The way I work requires the use of a database. However there are many inexpensive shareware database programs available on the net that could be used to analyse horse race parameters. All that is needed is time and patience to input the results.<br>Cheers :) JohnFebruary 29, 2004 at 01:40 #51734
I’ve looked at lots of computer systems over the years. Started off with Brimadon, in the days of the tapes. Was a good system, but way to costly nowadays.
Have had Pro Punter (still have a copy on my harddrive but not a working one) Thought too was a good tool to use. Also used other computer basied programs.
Found that it takes so long to enter all the data. I give up. Think that it’s having the time that is the biggest problem for most people.
I use paper systems now because you get a better feel for a race. When your sifting throught all the the data that is out there.
I suppose like most of you, I’ve brought a few methods/systems over the years an used the them for awhile, then put them in the back of a drawer. Leaving them to gather dust.
I do think it’s all down to how one feels. Some methods/systems you love to work with an others you don’t feel right for you.
Would like to hear what you guys think?
<br>February 29, 2004 at 12:15 #51737
Hi <br>For a really quick method , I like the Fineform formulae by Clive Holt, that gives points to a horse based on Last 2 places, if C or D rated and if in the top 3 of the newspaper form and if in the first 3 of the SP forecast.
It is very quick to use and I have used it as a basis for a small computer program.
It works best if you bet only when the most points on the formulae is confirmed by other factors such as a top course trainer in form or a good form write up in a newspaper or a recent run or a Beaten Favourite. I also only bet if there is a minimum of at least 4 expert tips in the Racing Post Selection Box for the top rated on Fineform.
<br>This is preferable to adding points for other factors.<br>I wouldn’t use it to bet on anything with SP forecast odds shorter than 10/11 though.<br>I find that , avoiding extremely short odds almost always improves profit whichever computer program is used to select horses. It’s the losing runs I hate and I’ve never found a way to avoid losing runs without losing value in the long term.
If only everybody would avoid short odds then the bookies would have to give punters better value.
JohnFebruary 29, 2004 at 13:10 #51742Sailing ShoesMember
- Total Posts 368
JAR,<br>I`m not sure I agree with statements such as "Good form write up in a newspaper" but each to there own.February 29, 2004 at 19:08 #51743ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
If anyone wants a good read on computerised betting systems, they might try Nick Mordin’s book titled ‘Winning Without Thinking’ – especially the appendices.
Also, Adrian massey has an excellent site where he produces his own computerised ratings but they are based on very limited data. Well worth a look.March 1, 2004 at 00:19 #51746
Yes I’ve used FineFourm as well. A lot of systems use a numerical basis, an can point you in the right direction to finding winners.
I use a method that is based around the VDW method. Oh no I hear you all cry, not him again. Well it works for me.
The Adrian Massey ratings are just one of the ratings I use. I used to use Nick Mordin speed figures, when they were available in a monthly mag ( the name I forget, old age).
As someone said before" you can’t stop getting losing runs" that is just something no system/ method will ever stop.
KevinMarch 1, 2004 at 10:30 #51749
Hi<br>Yes, I like Adrian Massey ratings as well, and he does all this work for free. Adrian also has a forum on his web site. Congratulations to him.
Having a computer I also like to look at other internet pages, Gummy Racing, JTS and the Online Times Wright Choice tips, the Racing Post plus Teletext are my favourites and of course this one. I look at form and what others think plus using a computer rating system.
It works for me though not as well as it used to do.<br>I think that over the last 5 years there has been a change in racing so that computer based racing systems do not work out as well as they used to do.<br>I think that racing has become more competitive, horses are better placed in races and odds compilers give poor odds about any horse with obvious form.<br>The end result being that it is harder to find value bets.
Kind regards<br>March 1, 2004 at 13:13 #51750
Nice to see this topic hotting up a bit.
Using a computer based system can help you compile all the knowledge about the horses in a race to arrive at a winner. Placing a bet is a different proposition. As mentioned by Nick Mordin in his numerous articles and books, you need to look at a race differently than everybody else.
For example, if your system is pointing to a horse A, but there is a hot favourite, horse B, that a shop punter might pick up on (e.g. Pipe/McCoy combo), then you can play your advantage.
I once used Brimarden, but as commented earlier it is now way too expensive. I remember many happy early mornings banging in the figures for Cheltenham. I have looked at a few demos for other systems, and looked at related forums, but none have really grabbed me, particularly those in my price bracket!
<br>Regarding my own system, I keep being tied up at the moment so my tip postings have not really materialised. I am currently converting my program so that I can use it at work and/or on my Palm. Once complete, I will be able to make selections without missing out on family life (as I keep being reminded!).
Looking For A Winner.March 1, 2004 at 16:48 #51758
Yes I’ll be doing the same in the next couple of weeks. I’ll have loads of stuff papers, ratings and pile of paper, all on the kitchen table. Hopefully I’ll have worked them all out by Monday the week of Cheltenham. Luckly going for the three days.
Always seem to talk myself of the ones I think are certs. Think it’s to do with looking for holes in the form. Which I think is one of the most important factors at the meeting.
<br>CheersMarch 1, 2004 at 20:31 #51759
Hi Guys<br>I find that simple computer programs do not work out that well for the Cheltenham Festival. I don’t know why? <br>So for that particular meeting I like to buy the Racing and Football Outlook for their view on the racing.
I too have an old copy of Brimardon that I bought a while ago. I never use it nowadays as it takes too long for data entry and I have to reset my computer date to pre 1996 otherwise it will not run. <br>I like the new version of Boxform. With this you can choose which handicap ratings to use speed based or form based or both. You can choose to set which other factors to use that may influence a race and how strong that influence may be on the outcome of the race.<br>A very flexible program that lends itself to developing your own computer system without needing programming knowledge.
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