Motivator’s Biorhythm cycle

[Alexander]

<br>G’day ye all;

Something for a sunday morning to reflect upon, and  for the lucky ones of the  Royal Ascot owners club to note.

I’ve been assigning biorhythms to runners for the purpose of predicting when they are naturally in form and out of form.

I use past race dates to identify these cycles. Therefore, each runner has its unique cycle.  

Although only scant info is available for Motivator I have examined the two races todate   13/8/04 (94% sine wave) & 23/10/04 (100% ) . It is reasonable to conclude that Motivator was up to his best yesterday.

If I carry this cycle into the 2000gns (30/4/05) we have a serious minus figure (-78%) and a likely poor form showing.<br>Conversly, the Derby shows the opposite (+98%).

NB* With additional runs the cycle will alter somewhat.  However, it is unlikely to change significantly from the fact that Motivator is predictes to  run well below form if connections go for the 2000gns.

Alex

[Artemis]

Alex,

I know that humans do tend to have these cyclical periods of well-being, and it is interesting that you feel able to apply this to horses. I look forward to hearing more from you on this subject, but don’t be surprised if it is greeted with scepticism. I remember reading something about biorhythms in horses about 30 years ago, but haven’t heard anything since then.

[dave jay]

Biorythms … interesting Alex. Do you know where we could get more information about the approach, or could you possibly provide some?

I tend to agree with Artemis that this will be greeted with more than a few raised eyebrows, due to lack of information rather than a positive disagreement though.

All I would say is this. A horse that is entered to run in a race that it has won before is more likely to win than a course and distance winner.

The sine wave measurement interests me.

[Alexander]

G’evening

You are right to highlight the sceptisicm associated with Biorhythms. <br>David Ashforth of the Racing Post made a light hearted mention about their worth  prior to this year’s Derby in his tongue in cheek piece when he made reference to the Sporting LIfe’s interest in the 70s.  To my knowledge a cycle of days was advocated that could be applied to all if the  foaling date and race dates were known.

I’ve never found any evidence to support a universal cycle of certain days  that support the arguement that all persons or indeed animals  born on the same day will be subject to the same influence.  Nonsense.

However, I do believe that it is possible to identify a pattern from an individual  runner’s past good performances that is disposed to repeat. I also believe that the repeating pattern can be forecasted.

Answering this tread, I’ve just realised that I have been playing around with these bios since Dr Devious won the Derby – how many years ago is that. !

To answer the other query. There isn’t anything useful anywhere as to applying biorhythms.  There is some interest re "the bounce" theory but it doesn’t head off enough in this direction.

I’ll keep in touch.<br>Alex

[woody]

Morning Alex,

Interesting stuff indeed!

Please do keep us posted as this is something i’ve thought about trying out before but never got round to it. ;)

woody

[dave jay]

I’ve just had a quick read up about this topic on another forum and read this experts results over a few weeks and it appears to be absolute clap trap.

He gets beat by the pin ‘hands down’

I retract my earlier statement and make a declaration that, ‘this approach is absolute nonsense’.

If anyone wants to prove me wrong, I will out bet them (and so will Kersly & Atremis) on a race by race basis week in and week out.

:biggrin:

[Alexander]

To Dave<br>Re your comments above.<br>I suppose you are entitled to your sado opinion but you are mistaken about results that this biorhythm method generates. I  sense that you feel you are missing out here.  You are.<br> <br>Are you hinting at a challenge ? Why don’t you go head to head with me perhaps this Saturday. I’ll let you select the races but I need races where there is some form ie. handicaps.

So on Friday evening you post here 4 handicap races on this thread that will be run on Saturday.

I’ll post my ratings for each of these races by midday.<br>You do the same.

You either put up or you shut up.

<br>

[Artemis]

Chaps, I’m staying out of this one. May the best man win.

[LookingForAWinner]

Can anybody point me in the direction where I can read about biorhythems? – perhaps after the showdown this weekend!

[dave jay]

Oh Well .. if you  put it like that I suppose there will have to be some sort of show down. I’ll post up the respective races tonight, 8pm ish.

To be fair to you I will pick races with older horses, all HCP’s. Any horse placing in the top 25% of the field counts as a winner from a scoring point of view.

Are you happy with that …. :biggrin:

LFAW … I’ve dropped you a PM.

Artemis … go on, give it a go !!

[Alexander]

To Dave<br>That’s ok with me.<br>I’ll post up the ratings for the four races that you select by high noon tomorrow – couldn’t resist that.<br>Alex

[Artemis]

Gary Cooper walks along the dusty railway track, staring in the direction of the train that is due to arrive at noon (music plays…..

do not forsake me, oh my darling etc. etc

Ok dave, I’ll put my ratings on in the morning.

[dave jay]

Mad Mexican, Dave Jay …. eyes flicking side to side, puts up the races …

Chepstow<br>1.55<br>3.35<br>Kelso<br>2.30<br>Newmarket<br>3.45

Start studying … NOW … !!!

[dave jay]

The Races

3:45  Newmarket  <br>No….Horse<br>1…NORTON<br>2…ZERO TOLERANCE<br>3…UNSHAKABLE<br>4…IMPELLER<br>5…WAKE<br>6…ACE OF HEARTS<br>7…KRUGERRAND<br>8…THE PRINCE<br>9…PERFECT STORM<br>10…FINISHED ARTICLE<br>11…KAMANDA LAUGH<br>12…GO PADERO<br>13…DAFORE

1:55  Chepstow   <br>No…Horse<br>1…GREY REPORT<br>2…CAMPAIGN TRAIL<br>3…TOM’S PRIZE<br>4…BARNEYS LYRIC<br>5…YEOMAN’S POINT<br>6…HAWK’S LANDING<br>7…CRACKING DAWN<br>8…L’AVENTURE<br>9…VICTORY GUNNER

3:35  Chepstow   <br>No….Horse<br>1…WOODENBRIDGE NATIF<br>2…ZIGGY’S WAY<br>3…KILDORRAGH<br>4…FELIX DARBY<br>5…DONNYBROOK<br>6…FLUFF ‘N’ PUFF<br>7…UNGARETTI<br>8…GRUMPY STUMPY<br>9…APPLE JOE<br>10…PURE PLATINUM<br>11…DUN LOCHA CASTLE

2:30  Kelso   <br>No…Horse<br>1…BALLINCLAY KING<br>2…AELRED<br>3…INTERDIT<br>4…BEHAVINGBADLY<br>5…LORD SAAR<br>6…GANGSTERS R US<br>7…GLENFARCLAS BOY<br>8…PRIMITIVE WAY

Copy and paste races from above if you don’t have your own racecards, save anyone having to type them out …

Good Luck … :biggrin:

[dave jay]

3:45  Newmarket  <br>No…Horse…Rating<br>11…KAMANDA LAUGH…28<br>8…THE PRINCE…23<br>12…GO PADERO…23<br>2…ZERO TOLERANCE…19<br>1…NORTON…10<br>10…FINISHED ARTICLE…10<br>3…UNSHAKABLE…8<br>4…IMPELLER…8<br>6…ACE OF HEARTS…8<br>7…KRUGERRAND…6<br>5…WAKE…5<br>13…DAFORE…5<br>9…PERFECT STORM…1

1:55  Chepstow   <br>No…Horse…Rating<br>1…GREY REPORT…24<br>2…CAMPAIGN TRAIL…20<br>8…L’AVENTURE…20<br>3…TOM’S PRIZE…18<br>4…BARNEYS LYRIC…18<br>6…HAWK’S LANDING…15<br>5…YEOMAN’S POINT…12<br>7…CRACKING DAWN…11<br>9…VICTORY GUNNER…3

3:35  Chepstow   <br>No…Horse…Rating<br>6…FLUFF ‘N’ PUFF…25<br>4…FELIX DARBY…18<br>5…DONNYBROOK…18<br>7…UNGARETTI…15<br>8…GRUMPY STUMPY…15<br>9…APPLE JOE…15<br>2…ZIGGY’S WAY…13<br>11…DUN LOCHA CASTLE…9<br>3…KILDORRAGH…8<br>1…WOODENBRIDGE NATIF…7<br>10…PURE PLATINUM…2

2:30  Kelso   <br>No…Horse…Rating<br>7…GLENFARCLAS BOY…20<br>8…PRIMITIVE WAY…19<br>4…BEHAVINGBADLY…15<br>5…LORD SAAR…15<br>6…GANGSTERS R US…14<br>1…BALLINCLAY KING…11<br>2…AELRED…11<br>3…INTERDIT…9

<br>That’s me … come and have a go if you think your hard enough …. :biggrin: <br>

[Artemis]

Any horse with no rating will be rated at least 5lb below the top-rated

3:45  Newmarket   <br>No….Horse <br>1…NORTON <br>2…ZERO TOLERANCE <br>3…UNSHAKABLE 123(+17) <br>4…IMPELLER 119(+7)<br>5…WAKE <br>6…ACE OF HEARTS 123(+17)<br>7…KRUGERRAND <br>8…THE PRINCE 121(+15)<br>9…PERFECT STORM <br>10…FINISHED ARTICLE <br>11…KAMANDA LAUGH <br>12…GO PADERO <br>13…DAFORE

1:55  Chepstow    <br>No…Horse <br>1…GREY REPORT 157(+11)<br>2…CAMPAIGN TRAIL 152(+6)<br>3…TOM’S PRIZE 157(+11)<br>4…BARNEYS LYRIC 156(+10)<br>5…YEOMAN’S POINT <br>6…HAWK’S LANDING <br>7…CRACKING DAWN 152(+6)<br>8…L’AVENTURE <br>9…VICTORY GUNNER

3:35  Chepstow    <br>No….Horse <br>1…WOODENBRIDGE NATIF 105(+6)<br>2…ZIGGY’S WAY <br>3…KILDORRAGH <br>4…FELIX DARBY 110(+11)<br>5…DONNYBROOK 108(+9)<br>6…FLUFF ‘N’ PUFF 108(+9)<br>7…UNGARETTI 110(+11)<br>8…GRUMPY STUMPY 103(+4)<br>9…APPLE JOE <br>10…PURE PLATINUM <br>11…DUN LOCHA CASTLE

2:30  Kelso    <br>No…Horse <br>1…BALLINCLAY KING <br>2…AELRED 133(+14)<br>3…INTERDIT 133(+14)<br>4…BEHAVINGBADLY <br>5…LORD SAAR <br>6…GANGSTERS R US <br>7…GLENFARCLAS BOY 136(+17)<br>8…PRIMITIVE WAY

…  

<br>

[Alexander]

30/10/04 (Saturday) CHEPSTOW 1.55pm<br>Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (Class B) (4yo+) <br>Winner £12,046.60 3m <br>SOFT  (9 Rrns)<br>No/Draw/ Form /Horse /days/Trainer/  Wgt /Jockey/Bio%Cycle/Adj’Rating<br>8 22-1 L´Aventure 182   P F Nicholls  5 10-0tb C D Sharkey(7)  – 90%46<br>1 322- Grey Report 199   P J Hobbs  7 11-12 R Johnson  80%42<br>2 112- Campaign Trail 294   Jonjo O´Neill  6 11-1 E Cooper(7)  70%33<br>3 412- Tom´s Prize 196   J L Spearing  9 10-11 T J Murphy  70%33<br>7 /PP- Cracking Dawn 306   R H Alner  9 10-1 R Walford(3)  50%30<br>4 34-1 Barneys Lyric 14  N A Twiston-Davies  4 10-10 C Llewellyn  15%25<br>5 56-U Yeoman´s Point 183   Jonjo O´Neill  8 10-9 A P McCoy  – 10%11<br>6 F1F- Hawk´s Landing 227  Jonjo O´Neill  7 10-2 T J Phelan(5)  10%11<br>9 29-9 Victory Gunner 174  C Roberts  6 10-0 Mr L Stephens(7)  10%10

30/10/04 (Saturday) KELSO 2.30pm<br>Isle of Skye 8yo .. Whisky Handicap Chase (Class D) (5yo+,0-120) <br>Winner £5,460.00 2m6½f (2m6f110y)<br>HEAVY  (8 Rnrs) <br>No/Draw/ Form /Horse /days/Trainer/  Wgt /Jockey/Bio%Cycle/Adj’Rating<br>5 0342 Lord Saar 14  A C Whillans  5 10-11 F Keniry  85%37<br>2 15F- Aelred 211   R Johnson  11 11-10 K Johnson  80%36<br>6 17-2 Gangsters R Us 38  A Parker  8 10-7 P Robson(3)  60%32<br>8 6-22 Primitive Way 27   Miss Forster  12 10-1p D C Costello(7)   60%30<br>1 0PP- Ballinclay King 216  Ferdy Murphy  10 11-12 B Harding   25%29<br>7 -562 Glenfarclas Boy 22  Miss Russell  8 10-3p P Buchanan(5)   15%25<br>4 071- Behavingbadly 191  A Parker  9 10-13 A Dempsey  15%24<br>3 1566 Interdit 96   Mrs B K Thomson  8 11-0 K Renwick  10%13

30/10/04 (Saturday) CHEPSTOW 3.35pm <br>Sue Green’s 50th Birthday Handicap Chase (Class F) (5yo+,0-100) <br>Winner £4,459.00 3m <br>SOFT  (11Rnrs)<br>No/Draw/ Form /Horse /days/Trainer/  Wgt /Jockey/Bio%Cycle/Adj’Rating<br>3 349- Kildorragh 191   L Wells  10 11-8p Mr J Morgan(7)   90%35<br>7 41P- Ungaretti 192   Ian Williams  7 11-3 P Moloney  80%31<br>10 09-0 Pure Platinum 37  Jonjo O´Neill  6 10-11 A P McCoy  – 85%28<br>9 4U3- Apple Joe 209   A J Whiting  8 10-12p T J Malone(7)  60%24<br>2 153- Ziggy´s Way 192  Mrs A Barclay  9 11-8 W Hutchinson(3)  45%23<br>8 34/4 Grumpy Stumpy 24  N A Twiston-Davies  9 11-2 C Llewellyn  35%23<br>5 -641 Donnybrook (ex7) 6  R D E Woodhouse  11 11-6p J Crowley  25%22<br>1 640- Woodenbridge Natif 216   R Lee  9 11-12 R Johnson  15%19<br>4 -441 Felix Darby 18   Mrs G Harvey  9 11-6 M Foley  10%9<br>6 -521 Fluff ´N´ Puff 9   J S King  10 11-5p J M Maguire  10%9<br>11 P7-5 Dun Locha Castle 172  N R Mitchell  9 10-4 W Marston  10%7

30/10/04 (Saturday) NEWMARKET 3.45pm<br>Best Bet John 0800 587 7086 Mile Handicap (C1) (3yo+,0-107) <br>Winner £17,400.00 1m <br>SOFT  (13 Rnrs) <br>No/Draw/ Form /Horse /days/Trainer/  Wgt /Jockey/Bio%Cycle/Adj’Rating<br>12(12) 51-1 Go Padero 13  M Johnston  3 8-9 J Fanning  80%29<br>11(10) 2111 Kamanda Laugh 15   B W Hills  3 8-11 M Hills  85%28<br>9(11) 4700 Perfect Storm 7   M Blanshard  5 9-0 D Sweeney  60%23<br>10(2) 0094 Finished Article 15   W J Musson  7 8-12 P Makin(5)  50%22<br>2(9) 0722 Zero Tolerance 63   T D Barron  4 9-7 P Hanagan  50%21<br>6(13) 9030 Ace Of Hearts 15   C F Wall  5 9-3 S Sanders  15%18<br>1(8) 8310 Norton 34   T G Mills  7 9-7 J Fortune   10%8<br>3(4) 5457 Unshakable 15   Bob Jones  5 9-6 F Norton  10%8<br>4(3) 2130 Impeller 28  W R Muir  5 9-5 S Drowne  10%8<br>7(5) 5150 Krugerrand 28   W J Musson  5 9-2 Laura Pike(7)   10%8<br>8(6) 1111 The Prince 21   Ian Williams  10 9-1 A Mullen(7)  10%10<br>5(7) /160 Wake 163   M L W Bell  4 9-3 R Hughes  10%7<br>13(1) 179 Dafore 15  R Hannon  3 8-6 J F McDonald(3)  [insufficient form]?%?

—————————Alex

[Author]

Posts