October 25, 2004 at 18:42 #1534dave jayMember
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A while ago, I was thinking about doing the punting full time but I wasnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t sure of what I would need to do to make the game pay. For instance how much profit is enough and could I test my systems better than I already had and would I be able to make a long term profit.
After a disastrous dabble last year, I gave it up as a bad job and thought IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢d better just give it a miss. Realising that the missus had been right all along and that I was just a fantasist.
Anyway, I have come up with a self testing tool to see if you are good enough judge to make a profit over the long term. Because being profitable all of the time is what pro-punting is all about and if you canÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t pick a winner (or a loser) than youÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢re really going nowhere.
This is the test,
Take the shortest F-SP favourite in the racing post.
Will it win?<br>Will it lose?
And then back or lay to level stakes accordingly. I reckon youÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ll have to get it right 85% of the time to be in with a fighting chance of doing it full time. This is not as easy as it seems.
Profits are marginal with this, so I wouldnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t use Betfair at 5%. Betdaq (3%) or Backandlay (1%) commission rates can make a big difference.<br>October 26, 2004 at 07:38 #55751ArtemisParticipant
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I wouldn’t fancy my chances with this one, although it is a fair test of judgement. I think a lot of the pros would argue that one of the great advantages they have is that they can choose when to have a bet. Most of the systems and methods on here have a definite set of rules which produce X number of selections combined with various staking plans/methods, and once the system is set up you have to see how it goes. I don’t think pros would be as rigorous as this. I suspect thatl they would be prepared to rely on their judgement if one of their system bets didn’t feel right.October 26, 2004 at 11:57 #55754LookingForAWinnerMember
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Personally, I would need a system that had at least a 25% strike rate otherwise I would quickly lose confidence. I’m not sure on the statistical longest losing run would be but when it comes to putting money down, it needs to be fairly short.
On the other hand, the small margins that your proposed system would produce would leave you feeling low even if you had a winner.
What sort of strike-rate / returns would you be comfortable with Dave?
Will you be running this system on the board?<br>October 27, 2004 at 18:17 #55756dave jayMember
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Artemis, the no bet option is really a killer, in my own experience. What I reckon with this, is that you need to remove the ‘get out of jail free’ card by insisting on an opinion. Anyone who has done this to big stakes will know what I mean. The no bet option let’s you bottle it when you really need to be betting.
LFAW .. this isn’t really a system as such, it’s more like a gauntlet of fire. What you are really doing here is forcing yourself to have an opinion and then you get a real acid test of your own ability. You said in your post that losing runs have to be short or your confidence is done quickly. I think that everyone is the same on that score.
Personally, I don’t expect to lose at all and as a rule I usually don’t. I hedge, back and lay, in every race that I bet in. I hate losing and haven’t got the nerve for big losses. I know my limitations and weaknesses and try to play them to my advantage.
My betting record for the last 15 days has been 1 losing day and 14 winning days. (PM me if you want evidence). Doing this by concentrating on one race a day.
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