Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Thompson (Thommo is a term of endearment and so I refuse to use it) does find himself very amusing. I heard that the other day he found a segment of his own commentary so amusing that he used it twice during the same race, just in case the viewers missed it the first time. Apparently Paddy Brennan was pulling double and did what many jockeys do and peered behind him through his own legs. Thompson said "Paddy Brennan looks between his legs and likes what he sees" and thought it worthy of repeat. The man is a twit.
Hello Ginge
I’m keeping my powder dry with regards Ossmoses. There is no better jumper of a fence in the entire field and I hope connections are patient with him. What I mean, is that I believe he may get a run, I still think a lot are going to drop out for one reason or another and I hope they don’t go the Midlands National route thinking he won’t get in. If they do he may well leave his season behind there and I would keep Ayr as my back up option for him in case he didn’t get a run.
If he gets in then he is a major player.
Is the Ryanair taking away potential Gold Cup runners? It obviously is and this year’s Gold Cup is not the race I am looking forward to most at the Festival. We need The Listener in the Gold Cup to make it a true test and although Denman can make the running, will Sam Thomas be given the instruction to do so? Last year’s Gold Cup was run at a dawdle (nine seconds slower than War Of Attrition’s GC) and without The Listener we could have another slowly run affair.
Of course we have seen the new staying novice hurdle clashing with the Ballymore hurdle with BJK’s connections swerving a clash with Denman and Nicanor. The Festival has definitely been diluted and although a veterans finale has been banded about on here (and it sounds a good idea) even this may take runners away from the William Hill, Kim Muir or even the Gold Cup.
Choice in not necessarily a good thing! I liked the three day Festival.
I was there in March 2004 and was on both him and Harbour Pilot. When I started shouting for both all those around me looked at me as if I had just robbed their Granny. it made me shout even louder! It wasn’t the done thing to oppose Best Mate but by God Sir Rembrandt nearly upset the party and from a personal point of view I wish he had. Best wishes Sir Rembrandt and thank you.
Sorry marb, I haven’t been back to check that thread yet!
The Betfair prices have changed markedly on a few runners in recent days. Ollie Magern was trading at 120’s TBP yesterday and today he is 15’s!!! Black Apalachi had been 34’s TBP and is now 10’s and will be even lower if he runs well today. Apart from Comply Or Die though the Pipe horses seem to be drifting especially Over The Creek and even DD has on the TBP market. Pipe is keeping his cards close to his chest with regards to his intended National runners don’t you think?
No Full: can’t win because he is only seven! Yet despite his tender years he is actually extremely experienced over fences having had 15 runs (never fallen). Has run very well this season over both fences and hurdles particularly the latter but his run in the Paddy Power Chase was a solid effort and showed his ability to handle the hustle and bustle of a large field.
He didn’t quite go through with his effort at Leopardstown and to the naked eye Black Apalachi (4th) would have reeled him in had it been over further.
However, his sire is….Useful….by name and by nature. His was the sire of that wonderful Pipe staying chaser Eudipe, second in a Scottish National, fourth in a Welsh, second in a RSA. third in a Hennessy and winner over 3m 5f. Therefore he can produce stayers and his damsire Labus produced a Midlands National runner up in Akarus who would surely have gone close to winning Bindaree’s Welsh National had he stayed on his feet.
Wouldn’t surprise to see him run a big race.Yep, agreed. The entries look good and looks to be a fascinating race on paper if indeed it lacks a little class but there are plenty of potential improvers in there.
I have just liked Gritti from day one really (so the heart is coming into it) becuase his sire produced a National runner up and a previous Eider winner and his damsire was also the damsire of Devon National winner, Welsh National winner and Aintree runner up Supreme Glory. He should stay without any problems,as should your selection. Forecast?!!
Am I allowed to change my mind re PARSONS LEGACY????
I have viewed each of his last three races through a magnifying glass (not literally) and I have to say that the career stats don’t tell the full story.
He may never have fallen but I am seriously concerned about his jumping (why I didn’t view the races instead of looking at him on paper I do not know). His last two runs at Cheltenham have been very worrying. He doesn’t give his fences any air whatsoever and he seems to dive rather than glide over them. He is no safe proposition, in fact I’d go as far as saying he is decidedly unsafe.
The Ayr run although great on paper was laughable in terms of jumping as he clouted a fair few of the fences especially the 4th and if you can’t jump round Ayr that well (widely regarded as some of the easiest fences in NH, they are more like large hurdles) then Aintree must surely find him out. He must have some engine to hit as many as he does and still finish his races like he does but I think I may well have done my dough with him.
L’ami is another I have written off. My last post mentioned being able to determine how far a horse will stay by looking at his sibling. I used Tipsy Mouse as an example, he was a full brother to Royal Athlete and A Piece Of Cake a full brother to Royal Emperor who was unlucky to be beaten into third (he would have won had he been on his correct mark) in a Scottish National.
As luck would have it L’ami’s full brother also ran in last year’s National, namely Kelami, and he too never threatened to see out the trip and I see no reason why L’ami will, albeit now 9lb better off. He stopped like he had been shot last year. His sire Lute Antique is by No Lute who himself is by Luthier who is also the sire of Over The River (Over The Creek’s sire) and his damsire Brezzo produced an Eider winner in Domaine De Pron (but he collapsed and died after the race he was so exhausted) but unlike Over The River Lute Antique is starting to build a Strong Gale-like National record i.e.very very bad, as he also produced Innox who blatantly failed to stay and Innox had a very good staying influence via his dam.
Leave him well alone, I am supremely confident he will not figure in the finish
OLLIE MAGERN: Oh, how I wish little Ollie was not rated 157. His sire Alderbrook has already given the stable two winners over four miles namely Naunton Brook and Baron Windrush. Ollie’s little sis’ Petite Margot stayed the four miles in the Borders National, Ollie’s damsire the mighty Monksfield is also the damsire of Monty’s Pass, Harbour Pilot and D’argent. Can you base a horse staying on what his siblings have done you ask? You bet you can. A Piece Of Cake and Royal Emperor (one won the 4m Borders National one was a 1l 3rd in the Scottish National) Royal Athlete and Tipsy Mouse (one won the Grand National one won the 4m Borders National). Ollie would stay but his mark is very prohibitive.
CORNISH SETT: As someone who sent me a private message on here said this horse has the family ties to entitle him to some respect. Cornish Sett’s grand dam Smooth Lady was the dam of 1988 Grand National and 1985 Irish National winner Rhyme N Reason. The dam Smooth Lady was herself by the dam Dandy Hall who produced 1984 hero Hallo Dandy so Cornish Sett has a lot going for him in that respect. His sire, however, Accordion does put me off. Generally speaking Accordion is renowned within the Bloodstock industry for producing horses that can be extremely quirky. By and large they can be an extremely moody bunch as liable to spit the dummy out as they are to run a big race as Billyvoddan showed in last year‘s race. Enigmatic might be the word! His mark of 140 looks good but he looks a little too small for Aintree and to the naked eye he didn’t get home in the Betfred in April nor in The Welsh National in December albeit both being on completely different ground to one another. Not to be trusted as I told the private messenger!
BEWLEYS BERRY has been helped by the handicapper thus far. He has been raised only six pounds for his second in the Beecher Chase. He has a lot going for him but he hasn’t got his head in front since November 2005.
His sire Shernazar has not had many runners over 4 miles. I recall one, Silver Steel, being placed in the 2002 NH Chase behind Rith Dubh and subsequently a well beaten 5th in the Midlands National. However Shernazar was himself by the mighty Busted. Busted has produced some exceptional NH sires including Supreme Leader’s sire Bustino. Supreme Leader has produced Grand National runners up Whats Up Boys and Supreme Glory and Scottish National winner Joes Edge. Busted also produced Clearly Bust who was sire of last year’s winner Silver Birch and Busted was also the sire of Balak, Seagram’s sire. Therefore there’s no reason why Shernazar cannot produce a National winner.
Bewleys damsire Orchestra is also a good source of stamina producing the likes of Dorans Pride, Fiddling The Facts, Rince Ri, Midlands National winner Miss Orchestra and NH Chase winner Relaxation.
Last but not least he also possesses a third significant stamina influence in Giolla Mear. He was the sire of old Lastofthebrownies who ran in three Nationals finishing 4th and 5th. Giolla Mear was also the damsire of last year’s winner Silver Birch. So, all in all there is a lot going for Bewleys Berry but can he get his head in front???
The argument against Naunton Brook is that he faded very tamely having led in last years race but I will let you in to a secret! NTD’s horses were woefully out of form in April 2007. From 31 runners he had no winners whatsoever, one of his worst months ever in his entire career. In May 2007 it was only 1 from 14. It was a lean time but Naunton Brook this time around should be an entirely different proposition. He will stay, he does stay and it’s been his long term target.
SIMON: Didn’t really give this one a chance last year and it was too far out to say whether he would have stayed no matter what anyone now says. The interesting thing with this one, for me, is that connections elected to bypass another tilt at the Welsh National, which for me is a big plus as so many horses can leave their season’s behind at Chepstow. He was running last year off his old mark of 143 and that could have been his big chance. Nonetheless his run behind Over The Creek was eyecatching but he has gone back up to 151. Simon would have to be almost Gold Cup class to triumph and given some of the horses that have finished in front of him during his career he is certainly not up to that standard.
Hi Seven Towers
Yes he was injured but the reason he ran in the Midlands was because he never received an entry for the National. Had he done so unlike Lord Gyllene I doubt he would have taken part at Uttoxeter as the races were so close. He was unstoppable that season.
Ferdy’s National plans have just gone up in smoke and you have to say that Joes Edge doesn’t seem to be that in love with the National course (I know he has performed well on the Mildmay). It’s a shame because Ferdy is a great supporter of the season’s four milers and he deserves to have one with a chance but alas not this year it seems.
