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I suspect he will jump a lot better under Choc who knows him better than anyone. He’s more careful at some of his fences I agree but he can still stand off when he wants. I don’t see him falling personally and if everyone based their National selections purely on jumping alone then I figure they never picked the winner of the National in 1995, 1996, 2001 & 2002 as all four of those winners had come down twice or more in their chasing career (not including brought downs).
Narrowed my initial fancies down to ten. I’m not too sure what the primary objectives are for each horse so anything running at Cheltenham will be discarded and I should eliminate a few on the day, taking into consideration the ground etc etc.
In weight order:
Knight Legend
Butler’s Cabin
Bewleys Berry
McKelvey
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
Mon Mome
Over The Creek
Parsons Legacy
Royal County StarNot wishing to put the wood on one of your longlist unduly, Bosranic, but has anything come to light for Mon Mome’s rather sudden pulling-up on his season bow yesterday?
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Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Persoanlly Bos I don’t think that is a bad 10 to be trying to whittle down and concentrate on but is Mon Mome ok?
The more I look through the National runners the more I find that this year’s renewal isn’t one of the best.
There are a lot more negatives surrounding this year’s runners as opposed to previous years, I assure you, and in theory that should make picking the winner and placed horses that much more easier.
So who are the potential improvers within the field i.e. who will achieve a career mark FAR higher than what they have been allotted for the National? You would have to say that this category would have to include TURKO, CLOUDY LANE, SNOWY MORNING, ALEXANDER TAIPAN & CHARACTER BUILDING but they all have negatives surrounding them. For TURKO it is the age and weight, CLOUDY LANE his inability to stay 3m 4f+ in his two efforts thus far, SNOWY MORNING his inexperience and jumping flaws, ALEXANDER TAIPAN the same as SM plus the unknown of 3m+, and lastly CHARACTER BUILDING who out of those mentioned is probably the most solid but four miles looked to be just that little bit too far for him at Cheltenham and I am not the greatest supporter of hold up tactics in the National and much prefer those that can race up with or just behind the pace. Nevertheless he out of those five mentioned remains a possible if only for place prospects because we all saw how he veered up the Cheltenham run in and Aintree, although flat, is a much longer and more lung bursting prospect.
I am wating for the usual cliches to surface i.e. "this is the most open National in years" but I am not so certain that this is really the case this time around and with a bit more study I am sure we can all make a healthy profit, without many problems. Watch this space!
That much I can certainly agree on, KC – other ante-post line-ups have certainly caught my imagination more than this one.
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Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Mon Mome’s seasonal debut at Market Rasen last year was nothing compared to what he achieved later in the season, so perhaps he needed the race. He’s very consistent and, in my opinion, is still progressing – he’s worth another chance.
Allow me explain my selections. Let me start by saying that I hate ‘trends’. However, the National is one race where I do take notice of profiles.
I initially take into consideration horses aged between 8-12. Although my ideal range is 8-10. They should carry less than 11 stone and, preferably, already won over three miles. I like experienced chasers, although sound jumpers who have run well in competitive events ie Over The Creek – Welsh National are considered. They should have a decent rating – class should enter calculations – and come into the race in some degree of form.
It’s also interesting to note most winners of the past 10 years have also had four of more starts that season prior to the event.
On the day of the race, it will be narrowed down to about two or three.
not sure about 8year olds, Bindaree being the last one to win and then you have to go back quite a way for the next one….has anyone heard anything about Joes Edge this year? lovely to hear about Ebony Jane producing Gansey, have such great affection for the good racemares and love to hear about their progeny…
Then Naunton Brook should be in there shouldn’t he????
I remember seeing him win a four mile race at Exeter last season, but he lost his way towards the end of the season and was eventually pulled-up in the National. I do consider horses who have obviously taken to the fences and fallen ie Bewleys Berry, but those who have not taken to the course and / or been pulled-up, I tend to discard.
Ferdy’s National plans have just gone up in smoke and you have to say that Joes Edge doesn’t seem to be that in love with the National course (I know he has performed well on the Mildmay). It’s a shame because Ferdy is a great supporter of the season’s four milers and he deserves to have one with a chance but alas not this year it seems.
Hi KC, I’m not 100% sure but didn’t Seven Towers suffer an injury after drubbing Lord Gyllene? He certainly missed the 97/98 season after winning the Midlands National. I’m still interested in both Philson Run and Bewleys Berry after yesterday’s exploits. BB seemed never to be at the races and if Philson Run is unscathed after his fall he’ll have another big chance. Although his age counts against him there can’t be that many 12 year olds who have had so few miles on the clock with National form and a Midlands National and an Eider under their belt.
Hi Seven Towers
Yes he was injured but the reason he ran in the Midlands was because he never received an entry for the National. Had he done so unlike Lord Gyllene I doubt he would have taken part at Uttoxeter as the races were so close. He was unstoppable that season.
lovely to hear about Ebony Jane producing Gansey, have such great affection for the good racemares and love to hear about their progeny…
Me too. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if something out of Lady Cricket, Lady Rebecca, La Landiere or – perhaps more realistically, given the stamina requirements – Dubacilla won a National…
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Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I do consider horses who have obviously taken to the fences and fallen ie Bewleys Berry, but those who have not taken to the course and / or been pulled-up, I tend to discard.
I’m totally with you on the pulled-up criterion, but as you hinted at, there’s a difference between falling and falling-having-hated-it. Bewleys Berry and Simon are not excluded in my book on account of last year’s spills any more than West Tip was for me in 1986 (NB I hope aftertiming 22 years after the event won’t upset anyone
) – both had looked pretty much at ease with the job in hand until departing.gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Remember West Tip well, tipped it to my (mobile) baker. He put more on it than I did. I got free bread for a week.
Value Is EverythingSIMON: Didn’t really give this one a chance last year and it was too far out to say whether he would have stayed no matter what anyone now says. The interesting thing with this one, for me, is that connections elected to bypass another tilt at the Welsh National, which for me is a big plus as so many horses can leave their season’s behind at Chepstow. He was running last year off his old mark of 143 and that could have been his big chance. Nonetheless his run behind Over The Creek was eyecatching but he has gone back up to 151. Simon would have to be almost Gold Cup class to triumph and given some of the horses that have finished in front of him during his career he is certainly not up to that standard.
The argument against Naunton Brook is that he faded very tamely having led in last years race but I will let you in to a secret! NTD’s horses were woefully out of form in April 2007. From 31 runners he had no winners whatsoever, one of his worst months ever in his entire career. In May 2007 it was only 1 from 14. It was a lean time but Naunton Brook this time around should be an entirely different proposition. He will stay, he does stay and it’s been his long term target.
) – both had looked pretty much at ease with the job in hand until departing.
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