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TIME TO START NAILING MY COLOURS TO THE MAST!!!
1/6
I am going to start doing excatly that and as I do every year around this time I look to pick six against the field just in case one or two meet with an untimely mishap. I have had of course some tiny wagers at massive odds on a number of horses but it’s time to start placing the weekly food bill on a few.
I already have £4 at 230’s on this horse and £10 at 25’s in the TBP market and it has been good to see the price in both markets contract over the last 36 hours but I have earlier today placed a significant bet in the TBP market at 14’s and supplemented that with a further £20 win at 90’s.
The horse: The trend brigade will have knocked this one out from the start for perhaps the most absurd reason within all of the trend statistics. I am still not convinced that he will turn up but I couldn’t afford to let all the value ebb away. His jumping can sometimes be a concern, other times it is a joy to behold, this was especially true when in his novice season.
This is his fourth season in the chasing ranks. He has performed well in big fields. Despite sometimes having a slight tendancy to jump right all his chase wins have come going left handed. He has fallen once in his career and unseated once in 17 chase starts and had he not unseated he would have won a Midlands National. His form over 3m 5f + reads 2UP21 and it is noticeable that the further he goes the better his jumping generally is.
His damsire is the truly fantastic Monksfield. Monksfield was by the sire Gala Performance who sired the likes of 1986 National winner West Tip and dual runner up Greasepaint. Monksfield is also the damsire of 2003 National winner Monty’s Pass, the dual Gold Cup placed Harbour Pilot, Midlands Grand National heroine Miss Orchestra and is also the damsire of Ollie Magern and his sister, 4m Borders National runner up Petite Margot.
His sire? Roselier of course……..enough said, unless you wish for me to list ALL his four mile winners!
The horse? D’Argent.
Get on.Warwick specialist though did win well at Cheltenham. Stays well but doesn’t he need soft / heavy? Often jumps poorly too.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingThat’s what I love about forums. You can give a detailed, considered and educated analysis of a race or a horse, raising, I feel, the most valid of points on pedigree, form and the like and then someone comes along and says c***p jumper, don’t like him. It makes it all so worthwhile and it’s a pure joy to embark on such a rewarding debate!
There’s not much I don’t know about the National I assure you and in time it will contribute to my income, not from a gambling perspective I might add but from an association shall I say, so it may not pay to ignore my little six part series so readily.
I like Knowhere he seemed to be enjoying himself when jumping round Aintree last year until falling hes had another year under his belt which can only help and he looks in good form if his run at Chelt is anything to go by. 40/1 a biggish price imo
TIME TO START NAILING MY COLOURS TO THE MAST!!!
The horse? D’Argent.
Get on.Typical forum
Don’t know who you are but you obviously put a lot of work into coming up with The horse? D’Argent. Get on.
And is the ground is good or g/f you will lose your wad
Horse wants soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best these days mate. You better pray for rain. He jumped better with blinkers I see…….no guarantee he will do so next time.
I would only consider betting him a few days before the race if the forcast was for soft or Heavy as you are betting totally blind otherwise.
When the ground is soft/heavy the offsprings of Roselier do fare very well overall.
The major negative will be the ground for this horse as I cant see if being soft enough.
2/6
The second horse I have picked has not been picked as a potential winner of the race but as one to finish in the first five.
His damsire The Parson is an excellent source of stamina. The Parson produced 1991 Scottish National winner Killone Abbey and also produced Scottish National placed horses Lo Stregone and Bishop’s Island. In addition to this he was also the damsire of that excellent stayer Young Kenny and 4m Borders National heroine Bellaney Jewel as well as Leading Man who ran so well at Doncaster over 4m last week.
His sire Leading Counsel has not yet sired a winner over over four miles which is why I see PL as place material rather than the winner (he shares the same sire as Dun Doire). However Leading Counsel’s own sire is Alleged who also produced Hedhehunter’s and Monty’s Pass’ sire Montelimar so there is a chance he can produce a National winner albeit a slim one.
Parsons Leagcy’s only try over four miles was an excellent effort that surprised me to be honest. Giving the winner 15lbs and the runner up 9lbs at Ayr means that PL comes out of the Scottish National with perhaps the most credit. He now has the mark to reverse the Kim Muir form with Cloudy Lane and now has an 10lb pull with Nine De Sivola and everything looks in place for a big, big run. In 19 chase starts he has NEVER fallen, which is a huge positive and he really must be on anyone’s shortlist.
You may not know but my knowledge on Roseliers is unquestionable!!! However, some of the other comments indicate that others are not so aware of the facts.
Generally speaking over three miles Roseliers are excellent on softer ground but when upped to four they don’t want a bog. It’s dangerous to generalise but the facts are there.
Roselier winners over four miles Ground
Royal Athlete Good
Bindaree Good
Baronet Good x 2
Take Control Good
A Piece Of Cake Good
Seven Towers Good x 3
Tipsy Mouse Good
Moorcroft Boy Soft x 2
Kendal Cavalier Good to Soft
Bellaney Jewel Heavy
Ranelagh Gray SoftSo good to soft, in my mind, would be ideal for for both D’argent & Ossie. It would be enough to inconvenience the better ground horses but I wouldn’t be deserting them if it was good. Aintree simply do not allow the track to become fast anymore.
Sorry "Kendal", if you did not like what I said about D’Argent. It is obvious you spend a deal of time working these things out.
But when someone disagrees with you then expect him to say so. I too have done a gret deal of studying.
Do agree with you about Parsons Legacy, and am on at 35/1.Kendal Cavalier was a favourite horse of mine too.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHas D’Argent ever run in the National [don’t think so] and if not what were the reasons – I know he tends to be aimed at the Midlands National which people say is not a race suitable for Grand National runners these days…and can you tell me more about Roselier himself?
"You may not know but my knowledge on Roseliers is unquestionable!!!"
I’m very pleased for you.
Colin
Moehat,
D’Argent has never run in the Grand National because Alan King rightly did not believe him a good enough jumper. However, now racing in blinkers his jumping seems (emphasise seems) to have improved.
Roselier was born in 1973, by Misti IV out of Peace Rose (by Fastnet Rock), died 1998. He won the French Champion Hurdle over 3m1f. As Kendal has said his progeny usually stay very well, often like soft ground, but can also show a fair bit of temperament.Value Is EverythingNot sure if there has been that much wrong with D’Argents jumping except for the tendency to jump right.
Kandjar D’Allier, another of Kingy’s greys, kicks fences out of the way rather than jumping them and I believe he ran in the National last year.
Colin
Would be a little concerned that his recent improvement has seemed to coincide with the fitting of blinkers which are a negative in the National.
Has D’Argent improved or just returned to his best after falling down the handicap?
Value Is Everythingcould it be that Roseliers’ don’t actually need soft ground but need the race to be an extreme test of stamina as a result of it being soft? also KC please do the rest of your 6 horses asap because my computer is, I think, about to die on me which is a disaster with cheltenham looming on the horizon!
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