[KendalCavalier]

I will look at Doyen tomorrow FF

[KendalCavalier]

I’ve heard it said often that a lot of the Getaway’s promise much but then don’t train on. They’ve actually started 2024 well in the UK but Weveallbeencaught is an excellent example. There were three or four in the media, Dan Barber being the most vociferous, when he first appeared saying that this was a future Grand National winner due to his size and all that stuff. He may well win a race or two but it will be nothing like the sort they first dreamed of.

[KendalCavalier]

Final one today is Coolmore’s star pupil – the £25000 a pop WALK IN THE PARK

Overall Spring Festival record

107 runs in 79 races
19 wins
17 placed

Broken down by Festival

Cheltenham 32 runs – 4 wins – 5 placed
Aintree 21 runs – 5 winners – 3 placed
Punchestown 54 runs – 10 wins – 9 placed

A very healthy record but it must be said that 13 went to Cheltenham in 2023 and didn’t yield a win.

12 Grade 1’s have been shared between Douvan, Min, Facile Vega and Jonbon with varying degrees of competetiveness (I’m thinking of Jonbon’s Aintree win last year!).

[KendalCavalier]

Next up it’s Coolmore again and their popular Galileo stallion MAHLER. Mmmm.

Overall Spring Festival record.

107 runs in 91 races
2 winners
16 placed

Broken down by Festival

Cheltenham 35 runs – 1 win (The Real Whacker) – 4 places
Aintree 21 runs – 1 win (Ornua) – 2 places
Punchestown 51 runs – 0 win – 10 places

There’s a lot of misplaced love for Mahler. Let’s be honest, another 100 yards and The Real Whacker wasn’t winning either!

Both Mahler and Getaway get a lot more winners in the UK than they do in Ireland. Their records in Ireland overall are shockingly bad. But here in the UK where the racing is more numerous and less competitive they have their place and do ok.

[KendalCavalier]

First up under the spotlight is Coolmore’s Monsun stallion GETAWAY.

His record over all three festivals is,

128 runs in 99 races
3 wins
14 places

There’s no getting away from it. He has been very poor value when it comes to the big days.

Broken down to each Festival

Cheltenham 44 runs – 0 wins – 3 places
Aintree 25 runs – 1 win (Getaway Katie Mai) – 1 place
Punchestown 59 runs – 2 wins (Feronily, Musical Slave) – 10 places

So, essentially, in England, nothing that has run at either Festival has won over an obstacle!

[KendalCavalier]

I’m not taking sides here in case I come under a Cider Attack.

All handicap chases since 2010 (minus veterans chases) and runs by age and their respective win percentages.

4yo 575 runs 87 wins @ 15.13%
5yo 5429 runs 757 wins @ 13.94%
6yo 19714 runs 3111 wins @ 15.78%
7yo 32256 runs 4498 wins @ 13.94%
8yo 32132 runs 3880 wins @ 12.08%
9yo 25678 runs 2629 wins @ 10.24%
10yo 16555 runs 1474 wins @ 8.9%
11yo 8722 runs 737 wins @ 8.45%
12yo 3992 runs 293 wins @ 7.34%

If I were to look at the same type of races from 2015 then the following happens

10yo 10507 runs 949 wins @ 9.03% (increase)
11yo 5590 runs 439 wins @ 7.85%
12yo 2733 runs 205 wins @ 7.5% (increase)

And if I bring it forward further to the resumption after COVID

10yo 3777 runs 309 wins @ 8.18%
11yo 1964 runs 144 wins @ 7.33%
12yo 1012 runs 73 wins @ 7.21%

And finally to this season

10yo 508 runs 43 wins @ 8.46%
11yo 234 runs 17 wins @ 7.27%
12yo 128 runs 9 wins @ 7.03%

Since 2010 the veteran horses by their race win % (the amount of races where one or more have turned up in and how many they have won).

10yo 9706 races 1474 wins @ 15.19%
11yo 6258 races 737 wins @ 11.78%
12yo 3327 races 293 wins @ 8.81%

Since resumption after COVID

10yo 2374 races 309 wins @ 13.02%
11yo 1467 races 144 wins @ 9.82%
12yo 847 races 73 wins @ 8.62%

This season

10yo 345 races 43 wins @ 12.46%
11yo 193 races 17 wins @ 8.81%
12yo 103 races 9 wins @ 8.74%

There is some slight fluctuation here and there but generally the figures suggest that older horses will keep winning but it seems it is getting progressively more difficult to do so.

I will look at the Class of race at some point because we’ve seen the likes of Chambard, Truckers Lodge and Shakem Uparry this season showing that older horses do still win decent prizes.

[KendalCavalier]

Alright keyboard ninja.

[KendalCavalier]

I have an idea. If you fancy Major Dundee so much and it bothers you that Mike put his fiver on at 20’s, why don’t you put your tenner on at 10’s. That way you’ll have a fiver more back than Mike and will be the winner.

[KendalCavalier]

For a moment there I thought everyone was answerable to you.

[KendalCavalier]

So it was priced up earlier today when the entries were announced and he was indeed 20’s at one point.

[KendalCavalier]

7yo 22 runners 1 winner 1 placed
8yo 78 runners 4 winners 9 placed
9yo 113 runners 3 winners 7 placed
10yo 94 runners 0 winners 7 placed
11yo 52 runners 2 winners 3 placed
12yo 26 runners 0 winners 1 placed
13yo 8 runners 0 winners 2 placed
14yo 2 runners 0 winners 0 placed

Last 11yo-14yo to place was Rathvinden in 2019.

[KendalCavalier]

I know he is. I was saying that in order to foil a Brassil plot you must be decent and Meetingofthewaters foiled it.

[KendalCavalier]

Frank Berry on Nick Luck’s podcast said Corbetts Cross won’t be going for the National this year

[KendalCavalier]

Firefox is a very good horse but the price does reflect the uncertainty about him staying in this Grade, on this ground.

If all 8 stand their ground this is up there with any race the Festival will muster.

I’m not sure they are good enough but Chapeau De Soleil and An Tobar shouldn’t be lacking for stamina if that’s what is required. All depends where the pace is coming from.

CDS’s grand dam was third in the National Hunt Chase and through the mare Ballyvooney is related closely to the 3/4 brothers The Tullow Tank and Many Clouds. CDS may need to be going over further still to be seen to his best in this sort of company.

An Tobar is from a proven 3 mile Grade 1 winning family and again has notable extreme distance stayers in his family such as Ms Parfois.

If it’s a dawdle up front then this probably won’t suit either of these.

[KendalCavalier]

Sired the winner of an Irish and Midlands National. The Bunny Boiler.

[KendalCavalier]

Meetingofthewaters has to come into the reckoning now. When Brassil plots one, you have to be decent and ahead of the handicapper in order to foil it. We saw that twice at Cheltenham last year. He’s had his expected hefty hike and dare I suggest that the UK handicapper will put him beyond the 145 he is in Ireland in case connections fancy a dart at the Kim Muir. Looking at the pedigree, there is every indication stepping up in trip could bring about the necessary improvement.

Wouldn’t surprise if we see an entry over here in a chase before the Festival.

[KendalCavalier]

That wouldn’t be the greatest shock to see him either

[Author]

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