Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Persoanlly Bos I don’t think that is a bad 10 to be trying to whittle down and concentrate on but is Mon Mome ok?
The more I look through the National runners the more I find that this year’s renewal isn’t one of the best.
There are a lot more negatives surrounding this year’s runners as opposed to previous years, I assure you, and in theory that should make picking the winner and placed horses that much more easier.
So who are the potential improvers within the field i.e. who will achieve a career mark FAR higher than what they have been allotted for the National? You would have to say that this category would have to include TURKO, CLOUDY LANE, SNOWY MORNING, ALEXANDER TAIPAN & CHARACTER BUILDING but they all have negatives surrounding them. For TURKO it is the age and weight, CLOUDY LANE his inability to stay 3m 4f+ in his two efforts thus far, SNOWY MORNING his inexperience and jumping flaws, ALEXANDER TAIPAN the same as SM plus the unknown of 3m+, and lastly CHARACTER BUILDING who out of those mentioned is probably the most solid but four miles looked to be just that little bit too far for him at Cheltenham and I am not the greatest supporter of hold up tactics in the National and much prefer those that can race up with or just behind the pace. Nevertheless he out of those five mentioned remains a possible if only for place prospects because we all saw how he veered up the Cheltenham run in and Aintree, although flat, is a much longer and more lung bursting prospect.
I am wating for the usual cliches to surface i.e. "this is the most open National in years" but I am not so certain that this is really the case this time around and with a bit more study I am sure we can all make a healthy profit, without many problems. Watch this space!
I suspect he will jump a lot better under Choc who knows him better than anyone. He’s more careful at some of his fences I agree but he can still stand off when he wants. I don’t see him falling personally and if everyone based their National selections purely on jumping alone then I figure they never picked the winner of the National in 1995, 1996, 2001 & 2002 as all four of those winners had come down twice or more in their chasing career (not including brought downs).
Oh dear! Some very fancied bubbles have been well and truly burst with D’argent, Knight Legend and Naunton Brook running much the best National trials on Saturday.
At least now I hope people will, once and for all, cease to think of Idle Talk as National material, the influence of Strong Gale always meant he would never be suited by marathon trips. Let’s hope he lines up nonetheless as it’s always useful to have horses running that can be totally written off with some certainty.
Point Barrow? I think Tom Segal reiterated a point that has been made many times already this week and that is PB doesn’t seem to care much for his trips to the mainland. That’s got to be a HUGE negative now. I’d be interested to hear what his supporters now think and what crumbs of comfort they are now clinging to.
Philson Run was extremely unlucky but had made some uncharacteristic mistakes before he was brought down.
As for Irish Raptor he didn’t get home so 4m 4f must now be a huge worry for his supporters. But Bewley’s Berry and Blue Splash were nothing short of woeful although it must be said that BB’s park course form has been just that since 2005.
Joe Lively (another with Strong Gale) didn’t jump as fluently as he can but Over The Creek didn’t run as badly as his finishing place might suggest. Couldn’t totally write him off just yet but if he goes for the Festival 4 miler (not 3m 6f as the RP states in the analysis) then I think I will write him off as that is a tough race too close to Liverpool.
Hi Cloy? Not a snowflakes on today’s evidence but then I didn’t think he had one before today anyway.
Butler’s Cabin didn’t look fit to me and far be it from me to imply that he has been run to perhaps cause the huge drift in the market but I suspect we will see a much different Butler’s Cabin come 5 April.
All in all quite an informative day I would say!
HYPER
How fantastic to have met a like minded individual. It was a sibling who first made me sit up and take notice of Roselier, mainly because of Carvill’s and for me he has provided some of the most fantastic moments in racing as well as some huge profits down the years. I was lucky enough to visit him at Knockhouse the year Royal Athlete won the National and he was a fine handsome beast I must say and very laid back for a stallion.
My favourite is of course Kendal Cavalier. Followed him from day one and I was there for most of his races including at Chepstow where all the faith I had put in him came to fruition. I was v.emotional to say the least but it was sad that Nigel Hawke will always be credited with training him for that win when it was the very kind Rod Millman who had prepared him only for the owner to move him a week before the race (the owner has quite a decent horse at the moment in the shape of Bertie May). I visted Kendal at Rod’s stable after his New Year’s Day win at Cheltenham, what a day.
It is sad to see his progeny reaching the end of their racing lives but as you say he will live on for a long time yet as a damsire. Weatherby’s is your best bet although I haven’t purchased any information from them for a long time but they would nonetheless be my first port of call.
I always thought it was a shame that his two Aintree winners were chestnuts as opposed to the their usual grey but hey at ante post prices of 66/1 on Royal Athlete and 40’s on Bindy who’s complaining!
My main gripe lay with Mary Reveley. She didn’t care much for the National and in 1997 Lord Gyllene romped home, the easiest winner we have seen for many a year but who was he trounced by earlier in the season and yet never received a National entry? Seven Towers that’s who and with that they lost their chance of National glory. Seven Towers in my opinion was one of racing’s greatest ever four mile chasers and his record prior to his injury speaks for itself.
I suspect because of the Roselier connection I will be on Character Building too but only a small wager as his own sire is a little bit quirky to say the least and I’m not convinced that four miles really suits them. Of course he is in Newbay Prop too remember.
I like the P.Nicholls/T.Hemmings horse Gansey as a future chaser. By McKelvey’s sire Anshan out of Irish National winning Roselier mare Ebony Jane. Defintely a staying chaser for the future and no doubt will turn up in a National of some description.
Some very good Roselier’s have been taken away from us too soon aswell especially the likes of Best Mate’s half brother Inexorable and Jim Lewis’ Rosslea and indeed Take Control. But we still have a couple of seasons left with some real decent ones and looking forward to seeing Monet’s at Aintree again and let us hope The Listener performs well at the Festival (and Sonnyanjoe for that matter) and that d’Argent takes his chance in the big one.
Oh shut up! I have never come across anyone who belittle’s someone else’s opinions so much without actually putting forward a reasonable alternative. You are so negative. You have NOTHING to say and you say it far too loud.
Most certainly Huka Lodge. Is just so in love with Haydock and Roselier’s progeny have such a truly wonderful record around Haydock. It’s as if they are made for one another.
3/6
NAUNTON BROOK: Perhaps the forgotten horse of the race. Much like CHELSEA HARBOUR this year, Naunton Brook had had eight races before last year’s renewal, mainly on bad ground, and his performance clearly showed they had taken their toll. This year he has had four runs thus far and looks set to go again at Haydock on Saturday. I’m not too concerned with how he performs at the weekend but I hope that this year he will bypass Cheltenham and go straight for the National. If he does, then he’s a player.
His wonderful sire, Alderbrook, was himself by the that great stayer on the level of the late 70’s/early 80’s Ardross who has produced some top staying hurdlers & chasers such as Young Kenny, Ackzo, Anzum, Sir Talbot and Scotton Green. It was inevitable that Ardoss’ influence would stamp itself all over Alderbrook’s progeny and that is certainly the case with both Naunton Brook and Baron Windrush both having won over four miles and Petite Margot going close at Kelso.
NB’s damsire True Song was by 1963 Derby hero Relko who is actually a significant source of stamina, still to the fore in some horses pedigrees (he can be found in Kauto Star) and he was the damsire of 2005 surprise third Simply Gifted and 4m NH Chase winner Sudden Shock. He was also the sire of Avocat who was the sire of The Last Fling and damsire of Grey Abbey. Finally also in his pedigree is Spartan General, the sire of 1981 runner up Spartan Missile and Scottish National winner Hardy Lad.
If he gets there fresh NB is this year’s Philson Run.
You may not know but my knowledge on Roseliers is unquestionable!!! However, some of the other comments indicate that others are not so aware of the facts.
Generally speaking over three miles Roseliers are excellent on softer ground but when upped to four they don’t want a bog. It’s dangerous to generalise but the facts are there.
Roselier winners over four miles Ground
Royal Athlete Good
Bindaree Good
Baronet Good x 2
Take Control Good
A Piece Of Cake Good
Seven Towers Good x 3
Tipsy Mouse Good
Moorcroft Boy Soft x 2
Kendal Cavalier Good to Soft
Bellaney Jewel Heavy
Ranelagh Gray SoftSo good to soft, in my mind, would be ideal for for both D’argent & Ossie. It would be enough to inconvenience the better ground horses but I wouldn’t be deserting them if it was good. Aintree simply do not allow the track to become fast anymore.
2/6
The second horse I have picked has not been picked as a potential winner of the race but as one to finish in the first five.
His damsire The Parson is an excellent source of stamina. The Parson produced 1991 Scottish National winner Killone Abbey and also produced Scottish National placed horses Lo Stregone and Bishop’s Island. In addition to this he was also the damsire of that excellent stayer Young Kenny and 4m Borders National heroine Bellaney Jewel as well as Leading Man who ran so well at Doncaster over 4m last week.
His sire Leading Counsel has not yet sired a winner over over four miles which is why I see PL as place material rather than the winner (he shares the same sire as Dun Doire). However Leading Counsel’s own sire is Alleged who also produced Hedhehunter’s and Monty’s Pass’ sire Montelimar so there is a chance he can produce a National winner albeit a slim one.
Parsons Leagcy’s only try over four miles was an excellent effort that surprised me to be honest. Giving the winner 15lbs and the runner up 9lbs at Ayr means that PL comes out of the Scottish National with perhaps the most credit. He now has the mark to reverse the Kim Muir form with Cloudy Lane and now has an 10lb pull with Nine De Sivola and everything looks in place for a big, big run. In 19 chase starts he has NEVER fallen, which is a huge positive and he really must be on anyone’s shortlist.
That’s what I love about forums. You can give a detailed, considered and educated analysis of a race or a horse, raising, I feel, the most valid of points on pedigree, form and the like and then someone comes along and says c***p jumper, don’t like him. It makes it all so worthwhile and it’s a pure joy to embark on such a rewarding debate!
There’s not much I don’t know about the National I assure you and in time it will contribute to my income, not from a gambling perspective I might add but from an association shall I say, so it may not pay to ignore my little six part series so readily.
Haydock – U for getting rid of their famous drop fences and replacing with portable rubbish, making a mockery of the Betfair Chase, which if I were Betfair would ask for it to be moved to Wetherby, Aintree or even over the water in Ireland.
Haydock – Suspended for reducing the number of NH meetings so they can pander more to the feckless louts and hen parties during the summer evenings.
Cheltenham – A* for keeping the NH Chase a four miler. If only there were as many four milers as there used to be.
IRISH RAPTOR has a beautiful staying pedigree. His sire Zaffaran should have already produced a National winner but remember Beau coming to grief in 2001 and Llewellyn running after him! His damsire Buckskin has produced a couple of 4 mile winners as mentioned with SIMON.
However there are a few things against him with perhaps the most important being his BHA rating of 134. I think I’m right in saying that Joes Edge had the lowest BHA rating in last year’s race with the same mark of 134. With the prize money going up again I expect to see an equally strong if not better race than last year and therefore 134 may be too low for him to get in the race. The other problem is that although he has got round Aintree twice he’s not challenged at the business end so that has to be a big negative. All his runs while he has been rated in the 130’s have been very disappointing and I understand NTD is trying to find him a race before the weights are published to try and get his mark up an extra couple of lbs, which won’t assist him in winning on past evidence.
BEWLEYS BERRY has been helped by the handicapper thus far. He has been raised only six pounds for his second in the Beecher Chase whilst Mr Pointment was raised 9lbs for giving him in 1l beating. He has a lot going for him but he hasn’t got his head in front since November 2005.
His sire Shernazar has not had many runners over 4 miles. I recall one, Silver Steel, being placed in the 2002 NH Chase behind Rith Dubh and subsequently a well beaten 5th in the Midlands National. However Shernazar was himself by the mighty Busted. Busted has produced some exceptional NH sires that have gone on to sire Grand National winners as advised in the Church Island analysis. Therefore there’s no reason why Shernazar cannot produce a National winner.
Bewleys damsire Orchestra is also a good source of stamina producing the likes of Dorans Pride, Fiddling The Facts, Rince Ri, Midlands National winner Miss Orchestra and NH Chase winner Relaxation.
Last but not least he also possesses a third significant stamina influence in Giolla Mear. He was the sire of old Lastofthebrownies who ran in three Nationals finishing 4th and 5th. Giolla Mear was also the damsire of last year’s winner Silver Birch. So, all in all there is a lot going for Bewleys Berry but can he get his head in front??? I hope he gets round and we can then say once and for all whether he truly stays.
Hello and thank you. What’s the crowd on here like?
BUTLERS CABIN: Never anticipated this one would have won the NH Chase but his damsire Bering was also responsible for Betfred winner Puntal so the stamina was there. Again hindsight is a wonderful thing. Started last season on a BHA rating of only 102 and is now an incredible 149. Up 14lbs for his Fairyhouse win Butlers Cabin is going to find life a little more difficult as a result of his excellent end of season form. It pays to note that Hedgehunter won his National off a mark of 144 and was then runner up a year later off a mark of 156. Butlers Cabin would need to be an extremely good animal to win at Aintree and I am not sure he is. Nevertheless his run at Leicester was interesting in as much that at no point during the race was he asked a serious question by McCoy but he still stayed on eyecatchingly at the end. Butler’s Cabin will be looking to break Sadlers Wells duck in the National. Nothing with SW in its pedigree has ever been placed in the race.
NINE DE SIVOLA: Reportedly being aimed at the Scottish version again but it would not surprise me if there was a change of heart with this one now Hot Weld is out. Now rated 141 for incessantly finishing runner up he will no doubt be weighted to reverse his narrow defeat to the above. If weighted on current ratings Nine de Sivola will have a 4lb pull for a 1l defeat by Butlers Cabin. The thing with running all these horses in one marathon after another is that at some point they will have been gone to the well with once too often. With Nine only being seven though there may yet be more improvment to come. His sire Video Rock is very versatile producing CH hope Osana but more importantly some decent stayers such as Welsh National hero Edmond and RSA winner Hussard Collonges. Like Cornish Sett however may be too small and does make mistakes during a race.
SIMON: Didn’t really give this one a chance last year and it was too far out to say whether he would have stayed no matter what anyone now says. The interesting thing with this one, for me, is that connections elected to bypass another tilt at the Welsh National, which for me is a big plus as so many horses can leave their season’s behind at Chepstow. He was running last year off his old mark of 143 as the National is an early closing race and that could have been his big chance. Nonetheless his run behind Over The Creek last month was eyecatching but he has gone back up to a career high mark of 152. Moreso than Butlers Cabin this one would have to be Gold Cup class to triumph and given some of the horses that have finished in front of him during his career you wouldn’t think he is. I like his pedigree though. His sire Overbury is now covering much better mares than in his early days and has produced a Festival winner (the sadly departed Missed That) and a couple of winners over 3m 5f namely full brothers Bannister Lane and Another Club Royal. His damsire Buckskin did of course produce National winner Amberleigh House and 4m 1f Eider Chase winner Hollybank Buck. He’s also related to National 4th Kingsmark. He has a lot to do but I like him.
