Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I don’t see where else he can go. Would they want to go NH Chase or save him for a possible tilt at £500,000. In the old days I would have said he was way too small but doesn’t matter anymore. It’s essentially a brush hurdle race and that’s his territory.
Just thinking out loud.
I’m not sure what conditions, if any, he still needs to fulfil but I’m just wondering if the Cromwell stable might just consider a tilt at the National with Flooring Porter
Flemensfirth’s record between 29f – 32f (1.5f either side of race distance)
150 runs (in 120 races)
9 winners @ 6%
22 places @ 14.66%
Race win % = 7.5%The progeny of Flemensfirth has seen a real decline in quality since 2014. Only one of his Grade 1 winners has come from a post 2014 crop (Minella Cocooner).
Of the post 2014 crop the best time to catch them is as 5yo where they have a 15.55% win rate and 36.3% win and place rate.
A few meanderings from me about the dominant stallion in this year’s race.
SHANTOU
The stallion has the top two in the market for the Welsh National at the time of writing plus four other entries.
The stallion’s progeny has a fantastic overall record at Chepstow.
127 runs in 122 races
28 wins @ 22.05%
34 placed @ 48.82% win/place.Only three have gone to post in the Welsh National itself with none of them completing (2 x PU and 1 x Fell).
Furthest distance a Shantou has won over is 3m 6f (Wounded Warrior).
Record between 3m 5f – 4m 0f (1.5f either side of race distance).
56 runs in 50 races
4 wins @ 7.14%
8 placed @ 21.43%The top two in the market do boast having dam stallions that have sired the winner and a runner up of the Welsh National in their own right.
There is a little bit of doubt around Shantou over this distance. The four mile + record is not great with 0 wins from 34 tries but this race could possibly be within the compass of a well handicapped one.
I think there are 3 horses in the field that have never pulled up. Might be a factor. You want something that just keeps going!
Not sure we learned a lot other than Cobden was the best jockey in the race. 5 seconds slower than the handicap chase. Not sure what would have happened had Mulqueen taken the initiative and pressed on. When Stay Away Fay went ahead from the back of the last I was expecting him to surge away from Giovinco but that wasn’t the case. Maybe he idles in front and prefers passing horses.
At this stage I fancy the winner more for next year’s Coral Cup than the BA.
As for the Tizzard horse, the jockey’s time as stable no.1 must surely be coming to an end again soon. The horse jumped the next couple fine without his interference.
One of those little anomalies with this race. Last winner with a GB bred dam was Alberta’s Run back in 2008.
The Network horses have a decent record in the race. Three by Network have run and all have placed at some point with a 2nd, 3rd and 4th between them.
So since writing this and Gold Bullion aside a further five have gone to post with three winning. Unfortunately Jeu Des Champs suffered a fatal heart attack yesterday.
I can’t see him going twice round Chepstow without Jonjo Jr making some kind of error on him.
I did hear that Willmount is most likely to go for the Supreme. He looks like one of those stayers that often win this race.
For a while William Hill were the only firm with Jeriko in the Supreme market so took the 20’s having heard the whispers about him in September.
I have Mirazur at 12’s. Will JP want both in the same race.
Having said that nothing has impressed me more than Willmount but assume he will be going over further if Jeriko goes for this.
