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I’m still happy with two of my three ante post National selections (serious doubts over Parsons Legacy’s ability to give his fences any air) but who out of the likely outsiders (i.e. 40/1 shots and over) could be creeping into the race under the radar so to speak?
There are a few but as with most of this year’s entries they all have question marks hanging over them.
1. Dom D’orgeval: a potential dark horse. Bought from the Nick Williams stable and always regarded by those connections as a potential marathon staying chaser. His sire Belmez produced the winner of the inaugral running of Uttoxeter’s Summer National in Berlin Blue. His damsire’s sire Le Fabuleux was the paternal damsire of Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass’ sire Montelimar and won the Prix du Jockey Club, Grand Criterium De Saint Cloud, Prix De Conde, Prix du Prince d’Orange, Prix Lupin and the Prix Noailles. The doubts are that over fences he has only won two small field novice chases but he did beat a subsequent Festival winner in one of those. Hasn’t done so well in big fields the last twice but that is not to say he hasn’t peformed well in big fields because he has in his hurdling days. Interesting but flawed!
2. Black Apalachi: his sire has now at last produced a winner over four miles in Comply Or Die. Black Apalachi performed excellently in the 29 runner Paddy Power Chase over Christmas and 39 other runners will hold no problems for him. His problem is that he has had three attempts over 3m 4f+ (incl. the Irish National) and he has failed on two occasions but ran a creditable third behind a decent yardstick in A New Story giving him 13lbs for an 8l beating and having Cane Brake behind him.
I like him as a real e/w prospect. Like Comply Or Die he has the influence of Furry Glen on his damside and for those old enough to remember Furry Glen he won the Irish Two Thousand Guineas and produced the 1996 NH Chase winning mare Loving Around (she is dam of Emma Lavelle’s Silver Patriarch gelding Marcus). Also in his pedigree is Little Buskins who was the damsire of 1998 National 3rd Samlee and old favourite Senor El Betrutti.
The main thing however is that he seems to have improved for his switch to Dessie Hughes. Lively Irish outsider.No Full: can’t win because he is only seven! Yet despite his tender years he is actually extremely experienced over fences having had 15 runs (never fallen). Has run very well this season over both fences and hurdles particularly the latter but his run in the Paddy Power Chase was a solid effort and showed his ability to handle the hustle and bustle of a large field.
He didn’t quite go through with his effort at Leopardstown and to the naked eye Black Apalachi (4th) would have reeled him in had it been over further.
However, his sire is….Useful….by name and by nature. His was the sire of that wonderful Pipe staying chaser Eudipe, second in a Scottish National, fourth in a Welsh, second in a RSA. third in a Hennessy and winner over 3m 5f. Therefore he can produce stayers and his damsire Labus produced a Midlands National runner up in Akarus who would surely have gone close to winning Bindaree’s Welsh National had he stayed on his feet.
Wouldn’t surprise to see him run a big race.Sorry marb, I haven’t been back to check that thread yet!
The Betfair prices have changed markedly on a few runners in recent days. Ollie Magern was trading at 120’s TBP yesterday and today he is 15’s!!! Black Apalachi had been 34’s TBP and is now 10’s and will be even lower if he runs well today. Apart from Comply Or Die though the Pipe horses seem to be drifting especially Over The Creek and even DD has on the TBP market. Pipe is keeping his cards close to his chest with regards to his intended National runners don’t you think?
Think as yet there are few outsiders in with a chance in this years race. Two I do like are Parsons Legacy and Ossmoses. KC has dalready done a good write up of the former. Ossmoses is doubtful to get in but if he does jumps well, stays well and reasonably handicapped. Bit of a doubt whether he will acts on good but can’t have everything. Very good prep on reappearance yesterday in Veterans race. What is more he is by ROSELIER.
Dom Dorgeval is in one of my 10 to follows to win the race but his jumping has fallen apart this season and runs as if something is hurting. I agree though could surprise at a very big price if he can come back.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHello Ginge
I’m keeping my powder dry with regards Ossmoses. There is no better jumper of a fence in the entire field and I hope connections are patient with him. What I mean, is that I believe he may get a run, I still think a lot are going to drop out for one reason or another and I hope they don’t go the Midlands National route thinking he won’t get in. If they do he may well leave his season behind there and I would keep Ayr as my back up option for him in case he didn’t get a run.
If he gets in then he is a major player.
yes he ran good race.just lacked the pace at the end . but i am sure there is a race to be won with him
I have been told he will turn up at Perth in April for one of the decent prizes there.
But where he goes till then unsure
I quite like the look of naunton brook, fairly good form, could sneak a place with a bit of luck 66-1 with hills.
not exactly a ‘dark horse’ – but have noticed a lot of money going on Slim Pickings over the past couple of days; is second favourite now.
Naunton Brook could run very well. He ran a cracking race last year. Definitely worth an ew flutter.
Also on
Naunton Brook 66/1
plus
King Johns Castle, Over The Creek and Comply Or Dieall each way
Hi everybody
JohnnyB has kind of stolen some thunder here but
King John’s Castle
Is an absolute must at 40/1 (I’m on 50 bf)
He’s obviously being targeted at the race and has been showing a high level of chase form over 2m4f and 3m which are the distances you want in a National candidate.
In the main he’s a sound jumper and really took the eye when winning over hurdles yesterday as he jumped big yet seemed to keep an awful lot for himself.
If not a bet to win then a bet to trade is definately in order. Especially when you consider the likelyhood (no worse than 50% IMO) of A P McCoy getting the leg up and the fact he’ll be well backed by the once a year punters for his colour.
The only concern would be if the ground turned up lively but that’s only because he’s unproven on anything without a little give. A similar situation also applied to last year’s winner, Silver Birch, but that only gave him juicier odds.
Whatever the case, King John’s Castle shouldn’t be 40/1 and won’t be on the day.
I had considered KJC but I don’t know enough about him from a pedigree perspective.
From a form perspective he hasn’t won beyond 2m 3f, which would be the main concern but I would be grateful if anyone could shed any light on his damsire Fujiwara. Doesn’t look as if he raced and doesn’t look as though he was a stamina based influence.
Admittedly having Black Apalachi and Chelsea Harbour behind over three miles looks good although BA had had a tough race not long before.
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