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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

jibsa

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Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 156 total)
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  • in reply to: Brian Hughes Closed down My Modem!! #502091
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Cheers boys I got over it now.
    The winner hosed up approaching the last and I’d have had no complaint if he’d gone on but Modem for a five year old was game over the last up the inside where he’d been all race.

    Suppose a switch outside might have cost him a length or two before he got it running again

    in reply to: One In A Milan (very badly injured) #500656
    jibsa
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    • Total Posts 164

    jeesus I never had such a swing of emotions from a novel or film more than reading this thread. Hope the boy pulls through.

    in reply to: Racing UK diary £1.99 – for non-members too #500562
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Should say I got my diary from RUK day before Christmas Eve, very happy with it, £1.99 and I do not subscribe.
    You do not want a free diary from your bookie, it means you are losing and they dont want you to forget them

    in reply to: 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup #499904
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Left field but why not Houblon Des Obeaux.
    Goes against all known trends in he’s had to many chase starts one of them already in this but I’d like to see how he got on with all the rest of the runners carrying the same weight as him for a change this jumps season and it might bring them back to him.
    In soft ground could be a player. Staying on 2nd in The Hennessy to Many Clouds.
    Number of doubts I have about all the rest apart from RtR

    in reply to: Lexus 2014 #499758
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Less exposed horse for me in Carlingford Lough.
    it’s wide open and on there best form any one here has a decent chance. Good Luck

    in reply to: Racing UK diary £1.99 – for non-members too #499226
    jibsa
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    • Total Posts 164

    I’ve ordered last week. it’s a very good deal but on ordering one it took me to my papal where I paid and that was it. I trust they send to the address registered to my paypal as I wasnt asked to enter an address after that

    in reply to: Ladbroke 2014 #498954
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Having been to Galway and witnessing the competitive nature of the handicaps there I cant help having a lump on Bayan.

    Second to Thomas Edison who would had liked the summer going more than G Elliott’s horse in the most competitive handicap there is over timber The Galway Hurdle. Out with the washing many recent winners like Plinth Parlour Games and Purple Bay who’d have had no excuses with the going. The latter upsides Irving when he fell.

    I missed 12’s this afternoon while I checked out the video now 8/1

    in reply to: "Potentially Well Treated" #498656
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    In the Fixed Brush Hurdle a number of trainers of other horses in the Post said the top weight Volnay Du Thaix was stand out well treated with an increase of only 5lbs for a penalty when his future weight would be up 14lbs from his Huntingon win

    I cannot see how a horse still carrying 12.0 is well treated and thats how it played out in the end

    Volnay De Thaix was "well handicapped" Jibsa, but going half a mile further than he’d ever been before. Heavy ground is against top weights, with each pound carried being worth more in lengths whilst also putting an added emphasis on staying power. Volnay cruised through the race to two out; last off the bridle but seemingly did not get home…
    Or, if it wasn’t to do with stamina – possibly due to the quickest turn around he’d encountered. Only 11 day break to get over his previous race. Only other slightly disappointing run was after just 15 days; which again is less than his usual gap between races.

    Horses can be well handicapped under top weight if he’s better than the rest by more than the difference between weights. It is the mark a horse has that makes it well or poorly handicapped, not the actual weight carried. Volnay won off a mark of 144 at Huntingdon with a lot more in hand than the 3 1/4 lengths margin suggests. So running off a mark of 149 (only 5 lbs higher) instead of a lot more had the handicapper been able to reassess – made him "well handicapped". Well handicapped horses don’t always win, particularly if there are other things against it; after all he was 3/1, not odds-on.

    Hi Ginger,
    I would not argue with any of your points and they are succinctly put.
    I like to use two analogies of races which make sense of your observations and for me to make a proper judgement how good a top weight is against the field.

    When Hey Big Spender won a Graded Chase at Warwick a couple of years ago it was under top weight. In reflection he was better than the rest by more than the difference in the weights. I didnt regard it like that I just thought he’s better than all these regardless of the weight he’s carrying. He repeated the dose in the Chase at Newcastle 3 weeks ago under the same circumstances. The weight might stop him but these wont catch him, they are not quick enough.

    Against that I use another example which occured the same season as Hey Big Spenders Warwick win.
    In the Paddy Power 2011 Chase Poquelin was top weighted but the weight didnt level out the differences in class with another good horse Great Endeavour which duly won with only 10.3. With respect I think the Fixed brush fell into the latter category with a slightly less exposed horse winning that event.

    in reply to: Fearless tipping from Mick Fitzgerald #498653
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    What Ricky Lake said 100%

    I always say to the moosus watch the Morning Line Grand National Day and put a line thru any horse that has a short film about it, any jockey or trainer interview that has a horse involved, any that has the smallest mention and most definitley those with team tips! Generally rules out half the field with the winner still present.

    in reply to: "Potentially Well Treated" #498551
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    In the Fixed Brush Hurdle a number of trainers of other horses in the Post said the top weight Volnay Du Thaix was stand out well treated with an increase of only 5lbs for a penalty when his future weight would be up 14lbs from his Huntingon win

    I cannot see how a horse still carrying 12.0 is well treated and thats how it played out in the end

    in reply to: Balbriggan #497691
    jibsa
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    • Total Posts 164

    seemed to break down on the flat after a flight I might be wrong as I viewed it live and don’t want to see it again. RIP, feeling for Gordon Elliott and his owners

    in reply to: Oscar Whisky #497690
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Guttted I an absolutely gutted. I feel this the most though I guess that is wrong. Great hurdler but I do not think it ever took to 2m Grade 1 fences. RIP Oscar and to the connections, though unlike the owners prediction "it never saddly had it’s day over fences"

    in reply to: Could Ryan Moore win SPOTY 2011? #496447
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    I am a big fan of Ryan Moore and think he is at least as meritworthy in a sporting sense as say Stevie G, Andy Murray, Lewis Hamilton etc on the usual criteria of success, skill, professionalism etc.

    But I can’t foresee a set of realistic circumstances where he would ever win a Sports Personality of the Year. It’s partly a personality issue – he’s rather taciturn and guarded in what he says perhaps for professional reasons and perhaps because he’s not an extrovert. But more importantly it’s hard to see how he could do something so noteworthy that might bring sufficient public attention. I can’t see him emulating AP’s dominance or Frankie’s magnificent 7. I don’t think being champion jockey or winning the Derby again would make much difference. Perhaps his best hope would be some sort of lifetime achievement recognition towards the end of his career.

    So there we have it. One of our finest sportsmen, arguably the best jockey in the world, in a major spectator sport, who doesn’t seem to get much public recognition.

    Having a good or any personality has not stopped the likes of Andy Murray, Nigel Manson and Ryan Giggs and many more winning it

    Indeed. Nigel should have let his brother Charles receive the award on his behalf. Let’s see Lineker make his smart [expletive] puns with ‘Helter-Skelter’ himself staring wild-eyed at him.

    Aye I meant Mansell, see he’s so instantly forgettable

    in reply to: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle #496408
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    My favourite race bar none.
    Kind of like the bumper second last March Shanehill who’s returned this season and won a competetitive novice hurdle but still plenty for us all to see and think about yet

    in reply to: Could Ryan Moore win SPOTY 2011? #496403
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    I am a big fan of Ryan Moore and think he is at least as meritworthy in a sporting sense as say Stevie G, Andy Murray, Lewis Hamilton etc on the usual criteria of success, skill, professionalism etc.

    But I can’t foresee a set of realistic circumstances where he would ever win a Sports Personality of the Year. It’s partly a personality issue – he’s rather taciturn and guarded in what he says perhaps for professional reasons and perhaps because he’s not an extrovert. But more importantly it’s hard to see how he could do something so noteworthy that might bring sufficient public attention. I can’t see him emulating AP’s dominance or Frankie’s magnificent 7. I don’t think being champion jockey or winning the Derby again would make much difference. Perhaps his best hope would be some sort of lifetime achievement recognition towards the end of his career.

    So there we have it. One of our finest sportsmen, arguably the best jockey in the world, in a major spectator sport, who doesn’t seem to get much public recognition.

    Having a good or any personality has not stopped the likes of Andy Murray, Nigel Manson and Ryan Giggs and many more winning it

    in reply to: Nicky Henderson #496402
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    Jibsa wrote "True yes true and he does have a high percentage of horses at his own admission that dont like winter ground."

    Bizarre that a top NH trainer with the big races run in winter that he states he has a high percentage of horses that don’t like winter ground.

    He did say it on TV this season in interview between races on C4, started by saying it’s no secret majority of my horses would prefer better ground or something like that.

    in reply to: Nicky Henderson #496317
    jibsa
    Member
    • Total Posts 164

    My luck Henderson would have had a treble today if I had

Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 156 total)