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Still seething from being sucked into the hype surrounding Djakadam for the Hennessy Gold Cup (I had followed Many Clouds since he was running in bumpers
) I just watched the RUK replay again and was annoyed to hear the current favoured cliche of racing journalists used immediately prior to the start by Oli Bell to describe said horse – "the potentially well handicapped Djakadam".I think this is a lazy term used by people who haven’t the time or inclination to study form but want to make out they are "in the know" and can claim they were ahead of the pack on the rare occasions these "well handicapped" animals actually come up trumps.
I also imagine that in general laying such "hype" horses is better than backing them.
‘Potentially’ is the covering word isn’t it? The phrase isn’t new. You backed the horse, how would you have summed it up without the benefit of hindsight?
Even if the horse didn’t deliver on one particular day (for whatever reason) it might well remain potentially well treated.
He fell in a hole as if shot ,,,so potentially , he will be having easier targets
Agree though these terms used by broadcasters are loose in the extreme
It is widely accepted that the English do have a strong tendency to hedge their words (potentially, feasibly, possibly, conceivably), particularly when they have to present themselves as insightful yet balanced and bereft of hyperbole as presenters have to do.
Of course, even a thirteen year old plodder has the "potential" to be well handicapped since potential covers all possibilities from absolute zero to one. I suppose it’s best to be thankful that the idiom is generally reserved for second season chasers and last time out winners.
On the basis of racing off a mark 4lb below the highest
Racing Post
rating he’d achieved as a novice chaser, maybe there was a case to describe Djakadam as potentially well treated. A small one.
The presence of Tamarindo and (to a lesser extent, despite placing in a Grand Steeplechase de Paris) Sun Storm on the damside might have encouraged some to think there’d be significantly more to come from Djakadam upped to 3m-plus distances, increasing the apparent extent of his competitive treatment commensurately. There’s plenty enough else on that side of the family to argue against that, though – several winners effective at up to 2m4f, but not beyond.
Very much in agreement with BH on what can constitute a well treated animal. Something like Southway Star has been "well treated" several times over this autumn – certainly at the point of her early-November Fontwell win off a lowest mark for nearly three years, and then for each of her four runs (and three wins) since then off raised marks that were still lower than the RPR she’d run to on the previous occasion.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Djakadam is in my ten to follow but I had no hesitation in describing him as "appalling value" when he headed the betting at 7/1 for The Hennessey. Needless to say, Mullins fever helped shorten him further still.
He is a young and inexperienced horse but better judges than me believed he was "chucked in at the weights"
I was burnt many years ago by Jodami, apparently a good thing, running off 10st 3lbs, when Sibton Abbey spoiled the party at 40/1.
The season is littered with these "Potentially well treated" runners and you will hear presenters in the previews waxing on about how the handicapper would have given him/her another 8lbs if there was the chance to alter the rating before the race, leaving them to conclude the horse is 8lbs "Well in" because of that.
Punters are drawn to that like horseflies to a pile of dung and, usually, "A pile of dung" sums up the notion beforehand that the horse had the handicapper by the Niagara’s.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I didn’t want to start a separate thread and this thread did come to mind when Stewart Machin said the rag in the Bula Hurdle was "tilting at windmills".
Phew, I’m pretty sure I’ve never used that one BH
I would hope not!
I do wonder who was the first pundit to misplace that idiom and why the countless subsequent pundits haven’t bothered to check its meaning.
Still seething from being sucked into the hype surrounding Djakadam for the Hennessy Gold Cup (I had followed Many Clouds since he was running in bumpers
) I just watched the RUK replay again and was annoyed to hear the current favoured cliche of racing journalists used immediately prior to the start by Oli Bell to describe said horse – "the potentially well handicapped Djakadam".I think this is a lazy term used by people who haven’t the time or inclination to study form but want to make out they are "in the know" and can claim they were ahead of the pack on the rare occasions these "well handicapped" animals actually come up trumps.
I also imagine that in general laying such "hype" horses is better than backing them.
Isn’t that exactly what Djakadam was/is? "Potentially well handicapped". ie When Djakadam fell in the Golden Miller at the Festival – (I backed it that day)
looked
to be travelling well enough to have been
involved in the finish
had he stood up. First three horses home were Taquin Du Sieul, Uxizande and Double Ross. Had any of those three horses been able to run in the Hennessey off Djakadam’s weight/mark you could say they were definitely "well handicapped" on that form. However, when Djakadam came down it was
too far out to be certain
of where he’d have finished and therefore must be an educated guess. So instead of saying Djakadam
IS
well handicapped, is it not more accurate to describe him as "
POTENTIALLY
well handicapped"?
Value Is EverythingIn the Fixed Brush Hurdle a number of trainers of other horses in the Post said the top weight Volnay Du Thaix was stand out well treated with an increase of only 5lbs for a penalty when his future weight would be up 14lbs from his Huntingon win
I cannot see how a horse still carrying 12.0 is well treated and thats how it played out in the end
In the Fixed Brush Hurdle a number of trainers of other horses in the Post said the top weight Volnay Du Thaix was stand out well treated with an increase of only 5lbs for a penalty when his future weight would be up 14lbs from his Huntingon win
I cannot see how a horse still carrying 12.0 is well treated and thats how it played out in the end
Volnay De Thaix was "well handicapped" Jibsa, but going half a mile further than he’d ever been before. Heavy ground is against top weights, with each pound carried being worth more in lengths whilst also putting an added emphasis on staying power. Volnay cruised through the race to two out; last off the bridle but seemingly did not get home…
Or, if it wasn’t to do with stamina – possibly due to the quickest turn around he’d encountered. Only 11 day break to get over his previous race. Only other slightly disappointing run was after just 15 days; which again is less than his usual gap between races.Horses can be well handicapped under top weight if he’s better than the rest by more than the difference between weights. It is the mark a horse has that makes it well or poorly handicapped, not the actual weight carried. Volnay won off a mark of 144 at Huntingdon with a lot more in hand than the 3 1/4 lengths margin suggests. So running off a mark of 149 (only 5 lbs higher) instead of a lot more had the handicapper been able to reassess – made him "well handicapped". Well handicapped horses don’t always win, particularly if there are other things against it; after all he was 3/1, not odds-on.
Value Is EverythingIn the Fixed Brush Hurdle a number of trainers of other horses in the Post said the top weight Volnay Du Thaix was stand out well treated with an increase of only 5lbs for a penalty when his future weight would be up 14lbs from his Huntingon win
I cannot see how a horse still carrying 12.0 is well treated and thats how it played out in the end
Volnay De Thaix was "well handicapped" Jibsa, but going half a mile further than he’d ever been before. Heavy ground is against top weights, with each pound carried being worth more in lengths whilst also putting an added emphasis on staying power. Volnay cruised through the race to two out; last off the bridle but seemingly did not get home…
Or, if it wasn’t to do with stamina – possibly due to the quickest turn around he’d encountered. Only 11 day break to get over his previous race. Only other slightly disappointing run was after just 15 days; which again is less than his usual gap between races.Horses can be well handicapped under top weight if he’s better than the rest by more than the difference between weights. It is the mark a horse has that makes it well or poorly handicapped, not the actual weight carried. Volnay won off a mark of 144 at Huntingdon with a lot more in hand than the 3 1/4 lengths margin suggests. So running off a mark of 149 (only 5 lbs higher) instead of a lot more had the handicapper been able to reassess – made him "well handicapped". Well handicapped horses don’t always win, particularly if there are other things against it; after all he was 3/1, not odds-on.
Hi Ginger,
I would not argue with any of your points and they are succinctly put.
I like to use two analogies of races which make sense of your observations and for me to make a proper judgement how good a top weight is against the field.When Hey Big Spender won a Graded Chase at Warwick a couple of years ago it was under top weight. In reflection he was better than the rest by more than the difference in the weights. I didnt regard it like that I just thought he’s better than all these regardless of the weight he’s carrying. He repeated the dose in the Chase at Newcastle 3 weeks ago under the same circumstances. The weight might stop him but these wont catch him, they are not quick enough.
Against that I use another example which occured the same season as Hey Big Spenders Warwick win.
In the Paddy Power 2011 Chase Poquelin was top weighted but the weight didnt level out the differences in class with another good horse Great Endeavour which duly won with only 10.3. With respect I think the Fixed brush fell into the latter category with a slightly less exposed horse winning that event.
) I just watched the RUK replay again and was annoyed to hear the current favoured cliche of racing journalists used immediately prior to the start by Oli Bell to describe said horse – "the potentially well handicapped Djakadam".
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