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I’m amazed at the gamble on Peddlers Cross- I think he was put in his place last time out by the better chaser- pure and simple. Sprinter Sacre towered over him and outjumped him at pretty much every fence. He barely came off the bridle and won very easily.
How on earth he’s supposed to turn that around at Cheltenham is beyond me. Personally I think all these "Sprinter Sacre won’t get up the hill" arguments smack of clutching at straws.
I think Sprinter Sacre will win the Arkle easily and for me, both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof look like decent place lays. Neither of them look particularly big and strike me of horse’s that are going to go to the top of the chasing ladder.
I can’t agreee with that i’m afraid. If trying to find the toughest, most durable, best staying and jumping horse in the country at the time makes it a false race, i’d rather have a false race over the true races like the king george anyday of the week
Incidentally, I rate Best Mate as considerably better than Long Run.
I understand he didn’t beat much but the style of his wins marked him out as a much better horse than Long Run. I’m not a great ratings man anyway as you’ve probably gathered.As for Best Mate vs Kauto Star, yes Kauto would have won at his peak but around cheltenham I don’t think it would have been as clear-cut as many seem to think.
Incidentally, since i’m on the subject of disparaging your arguments (as you seem so keen to disparage mine) lets look at another couple of your points.
J17star
Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:41 pmelgransenor1 wrote:Personally I think those who are saying that Long Run and Kauto are miles clear of the opposition and only have to turn up to have the race between them, are somewhat missing the point.
Missing what point? On ratings, form and all trends known, it’s true.
elgransenor1 wrote:For me thats going too much on the Betfair chase and the King George. Neither of those two faced much opposition there, I think they were both weak races. look how a 12 year old in Kauto (who is in my view, clearly past his best) bullied it from the front, and the only one to put it up to him was Long Run, the rest were so poor they hardly got a blow in. If it was a decent King George, that just wouldn’t have happened. But in my view it was anything but.
Captain Chris, Weirld Al, Somersby, Diamond Harry etc are all good horses. Thet were all put in their place. The rest of those horses in behind are basically the best of the rest. I fail to see any valid argument here.
Saying that i’m missing what point? The point i’m making is that horse’s often come of age in the Gold Cup itself. If the race was run on paper, then yes you’re right Kauto and Long Run would probably dominate. Unfortunately for you and others lumping on those horses at short prices, it isn’t. Almost every horse that has beaten Kauto Star in the past had a lower rating (and in most cases a much lower rating) going into the race. So perhaps you’re the one missing the point.
You mention these horses Captain Chris, Weird Al, Somersby, and Diamond Harry. I’ve never massively rated any of those with the exception of Weird al.
Captain Chris, something has clearly gone wrong with him this season. He was dreadful last time out, maybe he’s just lost his confidence. It’s also unclear that he actually gets three miles.
Somersby, always seems to travel well but often finds very little. In a sense he’s exposed at the top level.I’d probably say the same about Diamond Harry. he’s often hung in his races and he lacks conviction in the finish. As for Weird Al, i’m going to say that he’s best fresh and the Charlie Hall took the edge off him. His racing history suggests that he needs a longer break than he did between Wetherby and Haydock. He’ll be fresh for Cheltenham, a course he loves, where I think he’ll again be very dangerous. He doesn’t have much to find with the favourite anyway, on form.
I just take the view that the Gold Cup isn’t the cut and dried job you seem to be making it out to be.
"Considerable improvement? Well yes, they’d need to on all known form. Midnight Chase was outclassed last year, put up a respectable but not particularly exciting debut performance and then won a race that absolutely fell apart and has no meaning or value to it. Midnight Chase will get absolutely destroyed by both the principles. You’d have to be a lunatic to think otherwise, and expecting random improvement seems ridiculous given age and experience.
Quito De La Roque is slow he won’t be closer enough down the hill to have any chance. Kauto may not really see out the trip, but he has so many more gears than Quito De La Roque that will be so far ahead rounding the turn it won’t matter. He only won his seasonal debut because Sizing Europe doesn’t stay and The Nightingale didn’t either. You do need some speed to win a Gold Cup unfortunately.
Grand Crus is basically the exact opposite of Quito De La Roque. He’s yet to prove to me he can handle the Gold Cup trip and to my eyes would hold an outstanding chance in either 2 and half mile race. He’s untested outside of Novice company and has definite stamina concerns that make him almost unbackable for this, no matter how interesting a runner he is.
Synchronised is a plodder who needs very soft ground and won’t get it. Again, he lacks the speed to win any normal Gold Cup."
For example you say that Midnight Chase got outclassed last year. But for me he jumped poorly up front, and that was possibly because he wasn’t used to being put under pressure and lacked in experience. You’ll probably say now "how can you say he lacks in experience when he’s older than Long Run" but every horse is different and they don’t all develop at the same speed. He may well "lack the class" to win a Gold Cup, but I certainly don’t think he’ll be "absolutely destroyed" by the two principals, as you suggest.
I can’t agree that Quito De La Roque is just a slow plodder. he won at Aintree on good ground last year. I don’t think you can win on spring ground on a flat track like aintree if you’re some plodder who needs five miles.
Also i’m not so sure you need to be a speedster to win a Gold Cup. The history of the Gold Cup is littered with winners that weren’t exactly quick. See More Business, Jodami, Cool Ground, Norton’s Coin weren’t exactly speedsters. They were sloggers who could grind it out.
Ok if the ground is quick, then maybe you do need a horse like Kauto or Grand’s Crus who have gears. But if they ground is good to soft, which is often is in the Gold Cup, and theres a couple of horses that are upsides Kauto at the last, would you really fancy him to outslog them up the hill? I wouldn’t. What I don’t think Kauto wants is a battle these days, but its difficult to see him winning the race off the top bend like he has done in the past, which he’ll probably have to do.
Quito De La Roque is supposedly too slow in your eyes to get upsides Kauto to even challenge, but we’ll see about that. I take the view that a horse like Quito De La Roque shouldn’t be categorised yet. He hasn’t had the chance to run against horses who are as highly rated as Kauto Star or Long Run. When he does, I expect his rating to go up accordingly.
As for the stamina doubts you refer to with Grands Crus, you might be right about that but I have the same doubts about backing Long Run, a horse who’s been turned over twice this season while favourite, at 2-1, or backing a 12 year old in Kauto at scarcely better odds.
As for Sychronised being a plodder, the same doubts were expressed about him before his last run, that he just wasn’t quick enough, but he ran away with that race didn’t he?
Maybe you’re right j17, maybe i’m just constructing an argument to suit a view I already have.
However history shows us that horses’ that win consecutive Gold Cups tend to be exceptional, and i’ve just never held the view that Long Run is an exceptional horse. If people believe that he is, or that the opposition is so mediocre that he’ll be able to win on default, then good luck to them, but I won’t be joining them.
As for Kauto Star, i’ve never backed a 12 year old in the Gold Cup and I don’t intend to start now. If he win’s i’ll hold my hands up but I just can’t see it.
I just take the view that the Betfair Chase and King George were quite ordinary and uncompetitive races by comparison with previous years, and thats there at least remains the possibility that the Gold Cup will be far more competitive.
Maybe i’d respect your opinion more than instead of disparaging my argument in rather an insulting way, you respected my right to hold that opinion.
Personally I think those who are saying that Long Run and Kauto are miles clear of the opposition and only have to turn up to have the race between them, are somewhat missing the point.
For me thats going too much on the Betfair chase and the King George. Neither of those two faced much opposition there, I think they were both weak races. look how a 12 year old in Kauto (who is in my view, clearly past his best) bullied it from the front, and the only one to put it up to him was Long Run, the rest were so poor they hardly got a blow in. If it was a decent King George, that just wouldn’t have happened. But in my view it was anything but.
I can see the logic of thinking that theres nothing much in the Gold Cup either, and that it’s just as weak. But traditonally the Gold Cup has been stronger than those two races, and thats where I think applying the same logic could turn out to be dangerous.
There are horses in the Gold Cup in my view, who are capable of considerable improvement. Midnight Chase, Quito De La Roque, Grands Cru (if he runs) spring to mind. I have in the past been dismissive of Synchronised and the horse who won yesterday, Quel Esprit, but throw them into the mix and you actually have the makings of quite a competitive Gold Cup.
My main point, I suppose, is that in my view the two races Kauto has won this season haven’t been great races, (for example Grands Cru’s winning time at kempton was quicker than the King George, which says at lot) and it says more about the weakness of Long Run’s challenge that it says about Kauto.
Why people are jumping over themselves to back Long Run at 2-1, quite frankly is beyond me.
that irish hennessy must have been one of the worst run in recent years, if not the worst. forget about that race, and although i’m still very anti-long run and kauto, I think it would be a mistake to jump on the quel esprit bandwagon.
I don’t really understand why people get so worked up by this. i’ve read posts on the betfair forum where people are going on about watching the newbury webcam all day, reading all the weather reports etc. And I thought I was sad.
Don’t really understand the obsession unless you have a large bet on the meeting to be on or off.
And to be honest in that case, I believe you should always bet in a negative fashion, i.e. the meeting to be off, as most people are optimists and like to think they’ll get their entertainment in.
Listed Company
sketti
Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:49 pm
I still think Long run sould be shorter. I suspect I am going to rue my words. I don’t have a betting account with a few bookies so i am going to open some new ones and get some free bets on the horse, say £50 on the nose at 9-4 followed in with a free £50 will be 9-2 on the champ.Regardless of this he has beaten all except Kauto. 12 year olds don’t win gold cups!!!!
Weird al is best fresh and couldn’t beat long run who is worst fresh. Oppose
Long run then hammered all and was going to get passed kauto in half a furlong at kempton,, Kautos favourite track. Take Kauto out of this equation because he won’t win. Say he wasn’t there this year. We look at a 20 length winner of the king george and winner of the betfair on reappearance after i think proving a little shoddy when fresh.
Long Run would be 2 from 2 and odds on.
The problem is you seem to be already of the opinion that Long Run is going to win come what may, and are framing an argument around that, rather than the other way around.
For example you say that "Take Kauto out of the equation because he won’t win. Say he wasn’t there this year" The problem is he was, and is. Without wishing to cause offence, this whole argument looks very weak to me.
I too agree that Kauto won’t win, But the facts remain that he holds Long Run on form.
Good luck with your bet, I hope Long Run wins for you, but I couldn’t be confident backing him at the current prices.
Fair enough, perhaps at the back of my mind i’m also concerned whether he’s good enough… but I certainly don’t want to back
Long run or Kauto star.You might well be right there Bozlike but a lot of it is to do with the prices. also as I explained in my post, theres good reason to think long run may have gone backwards. It may be that the jumping mistakes he is making are affecting his confidence.
Then again I suppose, if we want to take on Long Run (and I really don’t fancy kauto star at all, i’ll hold my hands up if he wins) we have to find a credible alternative to the favourite.
Apart from Midnight Chase, Quito de la roque and Weird al might be worth considering.
Does anyone know, incidentally, if Long Run is going to be given a prep run before the Gold Cup? Last I heard he was being aimed at the AON chase at Newbury.
I like Midnight Chase now for this. I don’t think Grands Crus will run now, he’ll run in the Rsa instead where he’ll presumably hack up.
It just seems to me that Midnight Chase has far less questions to answer than anything else in the race. Ok you could argue that he lacks the class for a Gold Cup, but he was fifth last year and with another years worth of experience I feel he’s going to be very dangerous.
I just feel this years renewal has upset written all over it. Can we really be confident, about backing a horse in Long Run at 2-1, that has been beaten in both races this season?
A good friend of mine can’t seem to stop backing Long Run for this race, with the logic that he doesn’t think Kauto will stay or even get round, and that theres nothing else in the race (which could be a credible argument. for example when you look at Best Mate’s Gold Cup wins, he didn’t beat much. but Long Run isn’t a Best Mate) but he’s not for me.
I just think that horse’s that win more than one Gold Cup, if you look at it historically, are few and far between. It could well be that we’ve been spoilt in the last few years with animals like Best Mate and Kauto Star. I think the assumption was after he won last year, that Long Run would go on to win a few Gold Cups, but anyone who had any faith in that argument must be seriously doubting themseleves after what’s happened this season.
Also theres a thought in my mind that last years race left its mark on the horse. which is probably why so few horses back up their Gold Cup wins the following year, it tends to be a gruelling race which is difficult to recover from. Plus a lot of french horses tend to get worse over their racing careers (Master Minded springs to mind.)
Then when you look at the other opposition, it really does not look strong. I have serious doubts that sychronised is quick enough to win a Gold Cup, for all that he was impressive last time, that was a weak race compared to this and does he have the cruising speed?
So to summarise, its Midnight Chase all day
al ferof.
if al ferof can’t win this he has very little chance of beating sprinter sacre in the arkle, but I believe he will.
finians rainbow as you point out has the tendency to hit the odd fence, and as they finished in a heap last time I can’t see the form being up to much.
somersby is a bit of a twicer and should be avoided at all costs, as my wallet can testify.
well perhaps but he clearly gets more than 2 miles while also retaining loads of pace.
ideal type for the champion, although i’ve got mixed feelings about segal tipping it up as it’s now decimated the price.
I see pricewise has gone for my selection oscars well
elgransenor1
30 Dec 2011, 00:46
I quite like the chance of oscars well in the champion after that decent run today.he got outspeeded by the filly today, but at cheltenham up the hill his lack of a change of gears may not be so significant.
last year he came to himself in the spring, and was travelling best of all in the neptune before making a horrendous mistake at the last. he stays further than 2 miles as well which you often need in a champion hurdle winner. certainly rates a very decent each way bet.
great minds think alike, clearly
btw that was from the nick mordin website http://www.nickmordin.com and I don’t own the rights to that article, in case copywright should be an issue.
Mordin seems keen on the chances of oscar whisky, while practically dismissing those of grandouet:
OSCAR WHISKY THE TOP HURDLER
I suggested after his last start that trainer Nicky Henderson’s statement from last season about OSCAR WHISKY (43) perhaps proving better over two miles when he’d strengthened up and matured might well prove to be true this season.
Last Saturday Oscar Whisky went a long way towards confirming this idea when taking the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham.
The official distance of the race was half a furlong longer than two and a half miles. But a moderate early pace and a sprint finish made it ride much more like a two mile contest.
The most remarkable aspect of Oscar Whisky’s performance was the speed he showed over the last half mile or so from the second last. He ran this final part of the race 3.8 seconds faster than stablemate Grandouet managed over a shorter trip in the preceding International Hurdle.
Despite the slow early pace, the time that Oscar Whisky made up in the last half mile meant they clocked just 4.6 seconds slower for the final two miles of his race than in Grandouet’s contest. When I invoke my normally reliable sectional timing formula this suggests that Oscar Whisky would have buried his stablemate if he’d faced him in the International Hurdle.
I now rate Oscar Whisky the best hurdler in training following this run. The 20-1 that some bookies are offering about him for the Champion Hurdle looks barking mad to me. Given the pace he showed here there’s surely no way Oscar Whisky’s connections are going to consider taking on Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle. The Champion Hurdle just has to be his target, and I reckon he has a big chance of winning it this time around.
Runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE (42) is a smart hurdler in his own right and looked set to make a fight of it briefly before the winner just kept powering away and he himself began to hang. He still pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to go with Oscar Whisky and remains capable of taking a Grade 1.
The problem with Get Me Out Of Here is clearly his breathing. Despite having a soft palate operation he choked on the run in when losing the County Hurdle in a photo last season.
If I was going to risk money on Get Me Out Of Here it would be on fast ground over two miles, preferably following a break. In other circumstances he’s always going to be at high risk of having breathing problems. Most likely he was having them here and that’s why he hung.
GRANDOUET NO CHAMPION HURDLER
I recognise that most people see the race very differently, but for me GRANDOUET (39) receded to a distant blip on my Champion Hurdle radar following his win in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Despite a strong early gallop and being driven out all the way to the line he failed to clock a time that would give him a serious chance of winning the big race.
Previously I’d made the heinous error of rating Grandouet on what he might have done had he stood up when falling in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Now I’m going to treat the speculative rating of 41 I gave him there as an error and rate him on this performance which tags him as a Grade 2 performer.
Even if he’d run a whole lot faster and won more impressively I would not be interested in Grandouet as a Champion Hurdle prospect. He’s just too darned narrow, light-framed and immature for me to believe he can fight his way through the big field that always lines up for Britain’s top hurdle race. Bigger rivals are surely going to get in his way and force him to lose ground because he lacks the bulk needed to force his way though gaps between them.
Indeed, even in this eight runner contest jockey Barry Geraghty reported that this very thing happened. He said "I got trapped wider than I’d ideally want and had to switch in."
Grandouet is tough to beat in small fields. But for falling at Wincanton and getting brought down when going well in a Grade 1 at Aintree he would probably have won all eight times he’s run in single figure fields. However he’s yet to win in a race with ten or more runners in five tries.
I hardly think the Champion Hurdle will be the race where Grandouet finally manages to beat a big field. The stats say it’s very difficult for a horse as young as Grandouet to be competitive in that race. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse as young as Grandouet has taken the big race even though 77 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008.
Katchit had massively more experience than most five year old hurdlers. He’d started racing at two and had racked up 28 lifetime starts before winning the Champion Hurdle. Katchit had run in a dozen hurdle races before taking the Champion Hurdle too, just one less than the record for a five year old in the last sixteen years. Grandouet will have only had fourteen runs when he lines up for the Champion Hurdle.
This was a tough race for Grandouet, so I was looking forward to betting against him if he’d turned out again for the Christmas Hurdle on the grounds that he wouldn’t recover in time. But trainer Nicky Henderson is too smart for that. He told reporters right after the race "we’ll give him a bit of time off now, bring him back and give him one run before the Champion."
Runner up OVERTURN (37) is easy to understand. He’s an admirably keen front runner that needs fast ground. However, as we saw in last year’s Champion Hurdle, he’s not ideally suited to the prolonged uphill finish at Cheltenham.
I imagine Overturn will now be rested till the Spring to avoid unsuitably soft Winter ground. When he comes back he’ll be a very interesting contender for the Aintree Hurdle if the going is fast enough.
Third placed BRAMPOUR (37) didn’t show quite the same level of form as he had winning the Greatwood Hurdle on his previous start. Trainer Paul Nicholls was reluctant to blame an interrupted preparation caused by puss in a foot. And I found it interesting that he said after the race than he now planned on giving the horse a break.
A lot of horses, especially jumpers are best on their first two starts of the season and then need breaks of five or six weeks between their runs. Since losing on his hurdling debut (as most horses do) Brampour has won three out of three when he’s been fresh but lost all three times he hasn’t had a break of six weeks plus following his first two starts of the season.
Brampour, like the winner, is only four, so this season he’ll almost certainly be too young to have a decent shot in the Champion Hurdle. But next year I can see him being a threat to the top hurdlers.
Fourth placed MENORAH (33) went well for a long way before looking to blow up through lack of fitness in the closing stages – something confirmed later by his trainer. I’m still a little dubious whether he has the size or scope to produce his best over fences. But I’ve seen far too many below average size chasers excel in novice events to adopt that position with much confidence. And I have to say I like the way trainer Philip Hobbs seems to be gearing his entire campaign around a bid for the Arkle. That’s the way you win the really big races.
The fifth horse home SANCTUAIRE (31) travelled really well all the way to the second last. He’s a good looking, classy sort but has two obvious problems. One is that the pulls too hard for his own good when seeing too much daylight in small fields like this (he’s lost all four times he’s run in fields of eight or less). The other is that he had a breathing operation in January and may now have trouble getting home on tracks with steep uphill finishes or quite possibly on soft ground.
Right now I’m actually inclined to think that Sanctuaire can handle stiff tracks and simply needs fields of nine or less and good ground to produce his best. That does make him rather hard to place though. The only races where he’s going to encounter big enough fields regularly are handicaps where he’ll be lumbered with huge weights. So far the only handicap he’s won in five tries was the Scottish Champion Hurdle where he had nearly a stone less on his back than in his four handicap losses.
That said, Sanctuaire clearly has a lot of talent. If he can be found a conditions race with nine or more runners on fast ground I’ll be interested in his chances.
