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To be honest I don’t see how racing is different to any other sport, all use their own terminology that people unfamiliar with it wouldn’t understand.
At this stage, in the absence of any real standout performances and with doubts over most of the main contenders I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see last years 1-2-3 fill the places again.
I have major doubts whether Go Native will prove good enough on the day, he was anihilated twice last year by HF and it’s unlikely the race will be teed up for him like his last couple of runs have been. Khyber Kim could well figure but there has to be a doubt whether he will even run his race before considering whether he’s actually good enough. Solwhit is a horse I like but I think he falls just short of the standard required to win this. His narrow beating of Punjabi at Leopardstown on his favoured ground and the fact NH before the race said everything possible to put you off Punjabi means I would be very suprised if that result wasn’t turned around on all but the softest of grounds. Zaynar could be anything but at present he’s done nothing to prove he’s up to winning this and has been campaigned very much as the stables third string.
This time last year I backed Voy Por Ustedes at 11/2 for the Ryanair, following his impressive Ascot win (which I think took the edge of him) he was odds on and narrowly beaten in the Ryanair despite a serious jumping error.
At 8/1 this is an each way steal.I also backed him ante post for this a couple of months ago. However, I wouldn’t be touching him now. I’d love to be proved wrong but like a lot of King’s horses he looks to have peaked early and is now regressing.
horsesmouth, taking my words a bit too literally there, I was referring to the jumping mistakes that Captain Cee Bee has demonstrated in his few races over fences, and especially at Cheltenham in what should be a fast run race, there’s little room for error. Hope this explains the sentiments of my post!
To my eye Captain Cee Bee has jumped pretty well overall, even when he fell last time out he met the fence well and just got caught out on the landing, a novicey mistake but I’ve got no problem with seeing novices make small mistakes and I believe it helps them to learn. There were plenty of people 2 years ago that said Tidal Bay would never win the Arkle because of his jumping mistakes.
Voy Por simply doesnt stay 3 miles, cross him out. Joncol may or may not stay, cant be backed at the prices, as hes still a doubtful stayer. Schindlers Hunt does stay but is thoroughly exposed, and is not good enough. In Compliance does not get 3 miles, discount. If What a Friend is able to reverse Cheltenham running with Cooldine, il give up on this sport!! The 3 remaining serious contenders are Cooldine, Aran Concerto and Notre Pere. As the ground is drying out rapidly, u would have to cross out Notre Pere. The word is that Cooldine is ready for this, and him, along with Aran Concerto do stay and still have immense potential. Cooldine to win, Aran Concerto to chase him home and improve another bundle for the run. Lay Voy Por and Joncol in running.
On what basis are you judging Voy Por not staying 3 miles? His 8 length beating by Kauto in the King George? I’d argue that’s probably the best 3 mile form in the race. To be honest I also reckon he’s probably better over shorter but then I always felt the same with Exotic Dancer (could have won multiple Ryanair’s) and if he’s in form and the ground doesn’t get any worse then I could see class prevailing like it did last year. My main worry would not be him staying but whether he can get his fluency back in his jumping which seems to have been missing from his last 3 races. The 13/2 still looks big to me and the only horses that IMO have enough ability or scope to beat him if he runs his race are Notre Pere and Cooldine and with doubts about the latters fitness (although today’s market has made me think twice about this) and the formers form plus less than ideal going i’m happy to chuck a few pennies on the King horse EW.
Steinbeck ay notbe AOB best but I’d have to side with him if he turns up.
The early season rumblings from the yard were that Steinbeck was showing the most promise of all AOB’s 2YO’s. Not sure how his setbacks may have affected him though and there is a concern this could be being used to sharpen him up for next year.
Unfortunately I don’t fancy Yeats for this at all. Alandi and Profound Beauty both appear in with a good shout but Schiaparelli looks likely to get his ground and the distance seems to suit him well, with Godolphin horses in good form he just gets the nod for me.
Well, I’ll add my bets to date:
Arkle
Sizing Europe £10 @ 28
Captain Cee Bee £25 @ av odds £34Gold Cup
Big Bucks £5 @ 42
Denman £100 @ 8.8 (will prob trade this off)Ryanair
VPU £12 @ 9.2
Champion Hurdle
Binocular £50 E/W @ 7/1
As far as where will MD run is concerned common sense tells you he won’t go for the Arkle. Not unless Crack Away Jack, Osana and Sizing Europe all fail to make a go of things over fences.
Look at the past form of these 3. Crack Away Jack wins the Fred Winter, he goes for the Champion Hurdle and in his jockeys opinion would just have about won had he not been squahed to bits at the 2nd last and lost about 3 lengths, Siizing Europe fav for the CH 2008 breaks down when looking like the winner but returns and has already won a chase. Osana just pipped in the 2008 Champion Hurdle, probably the fastest 2 mile front running hurdler in the country and if can jump fences in the same fashion will without a doubt be top class over 2 miles.
Also add Captain Cee Bee (the forgotton horse) to that list plus whatever French imports Mr Nicholls etc has up his sleeve and there’s the potential for a very strong Arkle. Personally I think Osana may struggle over fences but time will tell.
The RSA appears the obvious choice for MDH to me.
