[Duke Of Marmalade]

Yes, of course they will, but only the special ones. And would you rather back 10 perceived ‘special things’ hoping for the exception or 10 trends horses backing 5 or 6 winners?

No I’d rather consider each horse on it’s own merit rather than discounting certain horses for no reason directly attributable to themselves

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Stats and trends are pretty much irrelevant, the best horses will always defy them.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Does anyone know what has happened to the mare, she has been off the track for a long time and was one i was going to keep an eye on this season.

No entries in the RP either.

Thanks.

How strange.I asked the exact same question on the Betfair forum a couple of days ago and got no response. Don’t remember hearing anything bad at the time, possibly retired as a broodmare?

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Is it me or does all form go out the window when racing comes to Cheltenham? I am refering to all meetings and not just the festival.

I would love to know the win % for favourites at all meetings.

Reflecting on Saturdays action, not one fav won.

I was also thinking back to the festival last year when the likes of Binnocular, Kabah Bliss, Voy Por Ustedes, etc ducked at short odds.

I don’t understand why you consider form and win % for favourites to be related. Are you suggesting the favourite in every race is the horse with the best form? If so then I’m afraid that’s clearly nonsense

[Duke Of Marmalade]

I note with some amusement the concept that Tidal Bay has demonstrated "top class" and/or "high class" form. He’s beaten nothing in any of his races to suggest this. His Arkle was dreadful, truly abysmal, and whilst he himself was "impressive" on the day his subsequent performances merely underlined that he is and always has been around 20lbs short of "top class" and around 10lbs short of "high class".

I can’t accept it was a ‘bad’ Arkle, it was however an Arkle Mr Nicholls considered Big Buck’s not good enough for having been comprehensively beaten by the eventual second placed Kruguyrova on his previous start . Kruguyrova hasn’t run since that season and third placed Noland looked to have a promising future racking up a grade 3 and a grade 1 before getting injured.

Don’t get me wrong I’m Big Buck’s biggest fan but if an on song Tidal Bay turns up he’ll be in for a proper race.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Yes just seen the decs, shame….Tidal Bay is interesting, as are Lie Forrit and Time for Rupert.

I’m leaning towards an each way bet on Time For Rupert (particularly at Sporting Lifes forecast odds ), I think this is will prove a step too far for Lie Forrit though.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

For me Karabak should take this comfortably, Tidal Bay could be very interesting if back to his best and if he takes back to hurdles but they are two very big and unlikely if’s. I still believe the engine’s there though (insert following him off a cliff face)

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Mighty Man wins again and was too big at 25-1. A few quid each way has been placed. He was as good a hurdler as Punchestowns, and yet is 6 times the price. He has jumped well on unsuitable ground both runs over fences and looked to enjoy it. Worthwhile risk to take.

His odds did look big and I took a couple of quid myself after his first run but I personally wouldn’t say that even in his prime he was ever as good a hurdler as Punchestowns. I know many will disagree but he was made to look good by the lack of quality opposition. Also Punchestowns is a young horse on the way up, Mighty man has put in a reasonable level of performance since his comeback from injury but is surely past his best. I do like the way he jumps, but I’d be suprised if he didn’t find a few too good on the day. Would be happy to be proved wrong though

[Duke Of Marmalade]

TAPK- If he has another horse good enough he will run it, if he doesn’t he won’t. Simple as that really. Remember Tatanen was 4/1 favourite last year but he still ran I’msingingtheblues.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Well, I’ll add my bets to date:

Arkle

Sizing Europe £10 @ 28
Captain Cee Bee £25 @ av odds £34

Gold Cup

Big Bucks £5 @ 42
Denman £100 @ 8.8 (will prob trade this off)

Ryanair

VPU £12 @ 9.2

Champion Hurdle

Binocular £50 E/W @ 7/1

Well I’ll update my list, never did lay Denman off but don’t fancy him one bit to beat Kauto so got to do something with that market. On top of the above I’ve had the following bets:

Arkle

Captain Cee Bee further £25 @ 22
Sizing Europe further £20 @ 9.8
Kangaroo Court £3 @ 130
Crack Away Jack £20 @ 10.5

Champion Hurdle

Punjabi £25 E/W @ 14
Celetial Halo £20 E/W @ 16
Binocular further £10 @ 9.2

Supreme Novices

Washington Irving £3 @ 25
General Miller £8 @ 25
Quantatativeeasing £2 @ 65

Champion Chase

Forpadydeplasterer £10 @ 10.5
VPU £2 @ 120

Royal Sun Alliance

Punchestowns £25 @ 5.2
Diamond Harry £15 @ 20
Mighty Man £2 @ 60

World Hurdle

Tidal Bay £5 @ 90

Albert Bartlett

Tell Massini £10 @ 6.4

Triumph Hurdle

Alaivan £5 @ 15
According £5 @ 19.5

Baring Bingh

Bobby Ewing £3 @ 36

So a bit of a mixed bag all round but very few lost bets so far

[Duke Of Marmalade]

1 57-1121 Knockara Beau (IRE) 48 7 11-7 G A Charlton J Faltejsek 147 SP SP
SP
2 1121-12 Bensalem (IRE) 50 7 11-4 A King R Thornton 140 SP SP
SP
3 1113-13 Diamond Harry 25 7 11-0 Nick Williams B J Geraghty SP SP
SP
4 2/30-912 Mumbles Head (IRE) 56 9 11-0 P Bowen S E Durack 140

Should still be a very interesting race.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

I remember saying last year that they should consider the WH for Tidal Bay. One of my favourite horses, he always made the odd jumping mistake but this year and last he’s started to get more and more stand offish at fences (i’m not particularly convinced by the something hurting him theory) to the point where it’s become increasingly difficult to get him into a race but he has shown on a few occasions that the engine is still there.

I can’t see him doing anything in the Ryanair or Gold Cup, the Champion Chase (Mastermind excluded) looks a very weak renewal but connections obviously don’t see him as a 2 miler anymore. With no Inglis Drever, the World Hurdle appears the obvious choice to me and whilst I wouldn’t expect him to beat Big Buck’s, if he took back to the smaller obstacles I could see him running into a place.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

I may be wrong put I think that’s just outdated information. Will be amended when the decs come out.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

That’s exactly my point, from memory he was 14/1-16/1 or something before he ever jumped a fence, yet there were promising chasers with far better hurdles form available at more than double that.

TAPK- Yes Nicholls wants the Arkle for the Stewarts but if he thought he had another horse good enough to win the race or even run well then there is no doubt whatsoever they would be running.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

I can’t give exact quotes because I’m at work and don’t have access to my files but PN certainly talked him up in his early season stable tour and RP feature, from memory he claimed he was the best jumper of a fence out of all his novice chasers and has repeatedly suggested him as his number 1 for the Arkle. Walsh was even touting him as being an Arkle horse whilst still running over hurdles.

You say 33/1 would be a ridiculous price based on what he’s achieved but Take The Breeze has IMO achieved more over fences than Tataniano, he’s certainly beaten better horses and more convincingly yet is available at those odds on the exchanges. Doesn’t necessarily mean I expect TTB to finish ahead of Tataniano come March though

Moehat- I agree entirely with what you’re saying and it would be no real suprise to me if he hosed up but at current odds and based on what I’ve seen to date he isn’t a betting proposition at present.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Certainly food for thought but there are also plenty of examples of horses PN has bigged up as being the next best thing that have failed to deliver. Nothing to do with him trying to mislead people i’m sure, they just haven’t developed how he’d expected. I’m certainly not against Tataniano but he’s done nothing so far to suggest he’s up to the task and PN hasn’t really campaigned him how you would expect him to campaign a leading Arkle fancy.

[Duke Of Marmalade]

I’m on Sizing Europe and the Captain both at odds of 30/1+, went back in on the Captain at 22/1 after his first run and recently took a bit more of 9/1 about SE. I stll see Captain Cee Bee as being the most likely winner particularly if we avoid soft ground. The horse has everything, speed, class, jumps well (mistake excepted), festival form and most importantly of all he’s a battler) but I’m trying to work out where the main dangers are likely to come from and these are my current thoughts:

Long Run- I think would be a massive danger, but both the betting and connections suggest it will be running elsewhere therefore I’m happy to ignore (perhaps foolishly)
Somersby- This horse perhaps worries me most, jumps well, stays well and has decent festival form. I can’t help but feel though he was flattered as Kempton. Crack Away Jack jumped terribly and got in no kind of rhythm, the close proximity of Tchico Polos doesn’t strike me as being Arkle winning form either.
Tataniano- The horse could be anything, but so far he’s beaten precisely nothing. I generally take no notice of the Nicholls hype machine (Tatenen or Aiteen ThirtyThree anyone?) and if trained by anyone else, on form he would be a 33/1 shot on what he’s achieved. Has anybody any idea why he hasn’t been seen since November?
Riverside Theatre- Is certainly worthy of consideration but again he hasn’t really beaten anything of merit, he fell just short of top class over hurdles and looks a similar level over fences.
Mad Max- Too many doubts for me. Late starter, looks better over further, ongoing breathing problems not proven to be resolved.
Zaarito- Nice horse but I can see no reason to suggest he can reverse placings with a fit Captain Cee Bee.
Osana- Has taken to fences better than I expected, I thought he would be another Staw Bear. That said again I can see no reason for him reversing places with either Sizing Europe or Captain Cee Bee (obviously assuming he’d completed) let alone both.
Sports Line- Looked promising in his 1st run over fences but hasn’t been seen since, the yard seems to have some problems and it will be interesting to see how he performs (if he gets there) this weekend. Very much a watching brief at the moment though.

A couple of horses are of interest at longer odds, Snap Tie, Take the Breeze and Kangaroo Court in particualr and I wouldn’t be suprised to see any of these run into a place if they got there but none strike me as being good enough to win.

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