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Is it me or does all form go out the window when racing comes to Cheltenham? I am refering to all meetings and not just the festival.
I would love to know the win % for favourites at all meetings.
Reflecting on Saturdays action, not one fav won.
I was also thinking back to the festival last year when the likes of Binnocular, Kabah Bliss, Voy Por Ustedes, etc ducked at short odds.
dont know fav stats, but, feel sure that £1 level stake win every festival fav shows profit last 20 years
All Chelt Favs
431-1932 = 30.96% LSP -44.37 ROI% -3.19%All Chelt Festival Favs
65-282 = 23.05% LSP -35.2 ROI% -12.48%So Barry was right, after all. For the past twenty years he’s made a profit from punters betting £1 on the favourites.
KI think the same thing happens to steady punters with Cheltenham meetings (and not just the Festival) than what happens to the rest of the public come Grand National time; people latch onto horses & back them into favouritism when the horses involved aren’t perhaps as good as the hype suggested.
I’m think particularly of Binocular who I don’t think has been especially impressive since.
It certainly happened at Haydock last time I was there. People were throwing money at the bookies for Punjabi despite him having been beaten by Medermit once already.
Is it me or does all form go out the window when racing comes to Cheltenham? I am refering to all meetings and not just the festival.
I would love to know the win % for favourites at all meetings.
Reflecting on Saturdays action, not one fav won.
I was also thinking back to the festival last year when the likes of Binnocular, Kabah Bliss, Voy Por Ustedes, etc ducked at short odds.
I don’t understand why you consider form and win % for favourites to be related. Are you suggesting the favourite in every race is the horse with the best form? If so then I’m afraid that’s clearly nonsense
[code:d4upnapm]surely there has been more than 282 festival races in past 20 years[/code:d4upnapm]
I only have 14 years data, Barry. But its 14 more than you put up to support your argument, which is most probably nonsense anyway.
I don’t understand why you consider form and win % for favourites to be related. Are you suggesting the favourite in every race is the horse with the best form? If so then I’m afraid that’s clearly nonsense
Apologies, I don’t mean the fav is generally the horse with the best form, I think this is just my own quip on how I pick horses, etc.
It is interesting that you believe there is some furore surrounding favouritism at the big races. I have been going to Aintree for the National festival for the past 9 years and the people who pick horses for colours/names, etc seem to always do well. For example, Walkon won at Aintree in April at 2/1, how many Liverpool FC fans would have been there that day, lumping on blindly. Or, the amount of punter who back horses with names in the title. Granted, there is possibly some fools paradise going on but I tend to find that you can study the form for Cheltenham/Aintree all day and it doesn’t get you that far!
Apologies, I don’t mean the fav is generally the horse with the best form, I think this is just my own quip on how I pick horses, etc.
It is interesting that you believe there is some furore surrounding favouritism at the big races. I have been going to Aintree for the National festival for the past 9 years and the people who pick horses for colours/names, etc seem to always do well. For example, Walkon won at Aintree in April at 2/1, how many Liverpool FC fans would have been there that day, lumping on blindly. Or, the amount of punter who back horses with names in the title. Granted, there is possibly some fools paradise going on but I tend to find that you can study the form for Cheltenham/Aintree all day and it doesn’t get you that far!
It’s an interesting discussion, the methods with which people pick horses. I think there’ll be alot of ‘nice name’ selections for the Gold Cup. It’s pretty obvious that one of two horses (and we all know which two) will win & at the kind of short odds that put small punters like me right off.
So why not look further down the card & see what takes your fancy?
For me personally, I doubt Mon Mome will run in the Gold Cup, I don’t even know why he has an entry but if he were to run, I’d back him each way simply for a laugh.
I’d never back the favourite in the Grand National (no, never say never, unlikely to) because anything could happen.
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