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Thanks for posting that, still looks like a long shot but glad I didn’t rip up those AP slips!
Super Kenny runs at Doncaster today, Bulwark.
He had an engagement at Newbury but has been withdrawn.
Who’d want to back a horse( Binocular ) who is not an intended runner ?
Somebody in the know judging by the story that’s just appeared on the Racing Post…
Can’t access RP at work and nothing on Sporting Life, could someone please give me a brief synopsis of what the article said.
Now about this Tidal Bay over fences…….
Try this for size then! Tidal Bay was rated 166 as a chaser Big Bucks 159! Big Bucks beat Krugyorova by 2 lengths in Jan 08, Tidal Bay beats Krugyorova by 13 lengths in the Arkle of March 08! You are in for a big surprise!
Kruguyrova beat Big Buck’s 4 lengths Feb 2008, don’t forget that
Halcon gets the nod for me. Should relish the going and trip and now back down to a very realistic handicap mark.
I have watched every World/Stayers hurdle since Moyne Royal won in 1973 and if every winner over this time could be brought back to life to race each other in the World Hurdle, I would be backing Big Bucks.
Big Bucks is still improving and has already achieved a rating of 174, I could see him achieving a rating over 180 before he is retired, Paul Nicholls says he is as good as anything in the stable.
Those who think Tidal Bay has any chance of beating him are deluded.
I actually agree, said some time ago that I was starting to think he was the best I’d seen. That said he is quirky and I don’t think he’s 100% unbeatable. Yes he’s the best horse but the best horse doesn’t always win.No doubt he’d probably win the race 9 times out of 10 but if he hits a flat spot in the wrong place, takes some time to respond and a horse with speed and guts can pull a few lengths on him then there’s the possibility he may fail to reel them back in time. The only horses that fit that bill IMO are Katchit (who I fear has gone and therefore would not touch) and Tidal Bay.
Well, I’ll add my bets to date:
Arkle
Sizing Europe £10 @ 28
Captain Cee Bee £25 @ av odds £34Gold Cup
Big Bucks £5 @ 42
Denman £100 @ 8.8 (will prob trade this off)Ryanair
VPU £12 @ 9.2
Champion Hurdle
Binocular £50 E/W @ 7/1
Well I’ll update my list, never did lay Denman off but don’t fancy him one bit to beat Kauto so got to do something with that market. On top of the above I’ve had the following bets:
Arkle
Captain Cee Bee further £25 @ 22
Sizing Europe further £20 @ 9.8
Kangaroo Court £3 @ 130
Crack Away Jack £20 @ 10.5Champion Hurdle
Punjabi £25 E/W @ 14
Celetial Halo £20 E/W @ 16
Binocular further £10 @ 9.2Supreme Novices
Washington Irving £3 @ 25
General Miller £8 @ 25
Quantatativeeasing £2 @ 65Champion Chase
Forpadydeplasterer £10 @ 10.5
VPU £2 @ 120Royal Sun Alliance
Punchestowns £25 @ 5.2
Diamond Harry £15 @ 20
Mighty Man £2 @ 60World Hurdle
Tidal Bay £5 @ 90
Albert Bartlett
Tell Massini £10 @ 6.4
Triumph Hurdle
Alaivan £5 @ 15
According £5 @ 19.5Baring Bingh
Bobby Ewing £3 @ 36
So a bit of a mixed bag all round but very few lost bets so far
Further Update:
Arkle
Long Run £10 @ 24 (Serious horse and whilst he prob won’t run worth the cover for my CCB and SE bets)
Champion Hurdle
Khyber Kim £25 @ 12.5
RSA
Diamond Harry- Laid off what I had staked @ 8.8
Long Run- £50 @ 7.4World Hurdle
Tidal Bay further £5 @ 40 and further £10 @ 12
Baring Bingh
Peddlers Cross £10 @ 15
That’s my AP done now and i’m left with a bit of a mixed bag.
Very happy with my Arkle market and leaves me plenty of scope to play around with and put a couple of covers on if needs be.
My Champion Hurdle position is a bit of a mess (mainly due to Binny’s withdrawl) but then so is the race. I don’t have a particularly strong opinion on this race now and probably won’t touch it again.
Happy with my RSA market and as soon as NRNB comes in I will probably go in again on Long Run safe in the knowledge I have it covered should Punchestown or Diamond Harry take this (though I am very much against DH now).
Gold Cup- I should have laid off my Denman bet when I said I would. Still plenty of scope here though and what I do will probably depend on ground. I may just lay off my stake and let it run.
World Hurdle- Still reckon BB has this as good as in the bag, but considering my position I’ll leave as is and be cheering and old favourite of mine in Tidal Bay on nearly as loud as Gord will be. I am warming more and more to his chance and if BB hits a flat spot at the bottom of the hill and allows Tidal Bay to steal a march on him I would be very suprised to see him caught (but maybe that’s just wishful thinking).
Ryanair, Supreme Novices and Champion Chase bets are pretty much written off but hopefully I can get a run for my money and I don’t have any large liabilities. Hoping Alaivan can still give me a run in the Triumph and it’s not a race I regularly bet on so should provide some interest.
Still happy with my bets in the 2.5 and 3 mile novice races.
Looking forward now to NRNB to come in when I’ll probably stick on a few low stake multiples.
It’s impossibble to say, whilst I have no doubt he would have gone close my gut instinct is he would have fought out second place with Sea Pigeon. He wasn’t exactly hard held in the Supreme and times are pretty much irrelevant.
Back on subject though if Dunguib were mine he’d be going for the Champion, strike whilst the irons hot.
I recall the same debate in 1978, jockey’s too young, neither horse nor jockey has not got the experience, etc etc
If Eddie O’Grady had it all to do again I’m 100% sure Golden Cygnet would have been running in The Champion Hurdle and of course the times tell us he’d have won it by 20 lengths or soIf you genuinely belive Golden Cygnet would have won the Champion by 20 lengths you are seriously deluded
Punchy holds him on hurdles form
How did you come to that conclusion?!
Okay not through direct form lines but I have him best part of a stone higher on my ratings and whilst I can’t check RP at work I would be suprised if the RPR’s and OR’s didn’t show a similar difference. I never said there wouldn’t be more to come but on what he’s achieved I think it’s a fair comment.
I think Go Native will win easily. He’ll travel better than anything else, will jump as well as anything else and after the last he’ll destroy them with a turn of foot that nothing else has. Should be 2/1 / 9/4 favourite, god knows how he isn’t.
Medermit was a neck behind him at Cheltenham last season, and that was with Medermit being blocked off in running after the last flight.
He will be there or there abouts, which is why he is my only bet for Cheltenham so far, never usually bet AP but this looks a great bet.
Yep, and Khyber Kim has comfortably beaten Medermit twice at Cheltnham this year. It’s all a bit of a muddle really
It’s fair to say that most years it’s pretty much a given that the Champion Hurdle will be a true run race but I’m really struggling to see where the pace is likely to come from this year. Must be a slight concern for those on Celestial Halo, Punjabi, Solwhit, Zaynar etc.
I hope Mikael hacks up because I’m seriously considering getting stuck into Long Run big style when the NRNB comes in and he should help with the odds. Mikael would definitely have to be respected but I couldn’t fancy him over the front two, he’s never run over 3 miles, Punchy holds him on hurdles form, Long Run has superior French form and both have achieved a higher level over fences to date, that’s without even considering his delayed preparation.
Quite like the look of Snowy Morning, should have a nice racing weight, proven he gets round and appears in better form than this time last year.
