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Two more (Irish) contenders for the bumper
Forty Foot Tom was very impresive in his bumber debut, unfashionable trainer, unbacked at 25-1, easiest Irish bumber wiunner of the season now 20-1 for The Festival, reminded me of Quadco and remember how he won the Aintree bumber
Sizing Mexico was perhaps less impressive in his only run but won with plenty in handSome really exciting novice chasers around at the moment and with the lack of strength evident in both the Gold Cup and Queen Mother, it wouldn’t surprise me if either event attracted a top class novice.
Some of us aren’t too surprised, Ian.
(My pasted comment is from page 1 of the Cheltenham 2010 thread).Struggling to find your original quote. I did refer to the same on this thread on 16 November – don’t remember too many refrences to it previously.
"rich1985" wrote: Still, Captain Cee Bee has fallen and neither Somersby nor Tataniano have; has to go down as a blot in the copybook for me, he won’t get away with that at Cheltenham. PN’s bullish comments on Tataniano supports his wins to date.
Ehm, rich, where would he get away with fslling?
Some really exciting novice chasers around at the moment and with the lack of strength evident in both the Gold Cup and Queen Mother, it wouldn’t surprise me if either event attracted a top class novice.
Some of us aren’t too surprised, Ian.
(My pasted comment is from page 1 of the Cheltenham 2010 thread).Struggling to find your original quote. I did refer to the same on this thread on 16 November – don’t remember too many refrences to it previously.
It’s in the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010 thread.
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Just wondering if Emma Lavelle will send Kangaroo Court for this now Crack Away Jack has been sidelined.
Was a decent hurdler splitting Karabak and Somersby last season, certainly stays and has won 2 decent chases. Looks as if he’s improved and could be worth an ew interest
horsesmouth, taking my words a bit too literally there, I was referring to the jumping mistakes that Captain Cee Bee has demonstrated in his few races over fences, and especially at Cheltenham in what should be a fast run race, there’s little room for error. Hope this explains the sentiments of my post!
horsesmouth, taking my words a bit too literally there, I was referring to the jumping mistakes that Captain Cee Bee has demonstrated in his few races over fences, and especially at Cheltenham in what should be a fast run race, there’s little room for error. Hope this explains the sentiments of my post!
To my eye Captain Cee Bee has jumped pretty well overall, even when he fell last time out he met the fence well and just got caught out on the landing, a novicey mistake but I’ve got no problem with seeing novices make small mistakes and I believe it helps them to learn. There were plenty of people 2 years ago that said Tidal Bay would never win the Arkle because of his jumping mistakes.
Was going to mention Kangaroo Court; assumed he was going for the Arkle anyway. She says good ground is the key to the horse and his jumping is pretty faultless. A bit of a forgotten horse imo because he’s been kept off the track due to the soft ground.
Bit surprised that Steve Mellish put up Riverside Theatre as his value for this – currently I think he is probably the worst value around. For me he is simply not good enough and probably wants 2m2f on a flat track. Didn’t think much of his other value bet either – Menorah – similarly to Riverside Theatre big doubts as to whether Cheltenham will suit and if Bellvano turns out to be third or fourth in Henderson’s pecking order that Kempton form suddenly doesn’t look that hot.
Hmmmm, Duke, you have no problems seeing novices make ‘novicey mistakes’, like what Captain Cee Bee did??!! You obviously didn’t back him then??!!! I backed him, so I had a problem…a financial one!!!
Seriously, I love Captain Cee Bee, but how can anyone say he wont make a serious mistake or fall again?? Ive come out with some very hasty quotes in my time, (ask Big Bucks if you dont believe me
) but of course Captain Cee Bee CAN fall again!!! I hope he doesn’t, but you just never know!
The ONLY time he was asked a serious question, jumping a fence at full-tilt, he fell. You just couldn’t be confident with him at Cheltenham, IMO.Sizing Europe has won on good, good to soft, and soft. Regarding ground, unless it comes up Firm (highly doubtful!!!) then it wont be an issue. Just look at what Sizing Europe achieved over hurdles, compared to his rivals. And, his jumping has been fantastic. I dont think he was at his best at Leopardstown, and yes, I believe Captain Cee Bee would’ve beaten him, but he still thrashed a very good horse in Osana. He, and Sommersby are the ones with the best claims, so far!
Paul Nicholls also stated that Tatenan was a ‘proper Arkle horse’, remember? I know that Tatatiano has looked good, but has he had to jump a fence at full-speed yet? No. I cant have anyone saying he would’ve beaten Fosters Cross, it was way too early when FC unseated. He has had 2 public schooling sessions, and no more. Until he proves himself in better company, the 8/1 looks way too short. Im not saying he wont win the Arkle, just 8/1 is way too skinny for what hes actually achieved.
Before Crack Away Jack got injured, I didnt think he looked a natural (yet) over fences, and I think the sheer speed of the Arkle would’ve found him out. We will never know
Ok, Sommersby, Sizing Europe and as a value long-shot, Zarritto at 25/1 appeals greatly. His jumping has been fantastic, he was only beaten a s/h by Captain Cee Bee, and since then, has hacked up in a novices chase. At a quarter of the odds, the 1st 3 at Paddy Powers, it appeals greatly.
Aido, you can’t say about any horse that they won’t fall or make a serious mistake. You are right that Cee Bee could make a mistake/fall but this applies to all of them.
thehorsesmouth
That was my point?! Someone had written before me that Captain Cee Bee would NEVER fall again!!
BB, you well?? You haven’t picked on me for a while, Im starting to miss it!!!
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As the resident Arkle expert
I say he won’t fall.The Arkle picture is a bit clearer now but there’s still a bit of thick fog to clear before anyone knows what they are up against.
Our Henry De whatshisname has indicated Sizing Europe may head for the QMCC. Obviously he’s thinking if Master Minded doesn’t turn up what’s to beat?. Big Zeb? He kicked his backside into touch when they were novices and he’s hardly the best jumper around.
My worry with him is he’s never 100% when he gets beat or in this case looking like he was going to get beat. My feeling is on a line through Osana who he beat in the Greatwood he was pretty damn straight last time.
I think with Sizing Europe much depends on how others run. He will run his normal race, travelling easily and be bang there with 2 to jump. The worry is what will happen if there are 3 or 4 others challenging him on the run down the hill. He’s either going to win in a canter or be run out of it in the closing stages. I just can’t see him winning a battle up the Cheltenham Hill if it comes down to it.
Willie Mullins once again is keeping everyone in the dark. I’ve been got at before for saying this but to me the man is full of shyte saying "let’s get him back on the racecourse first before talking targets". At this late stage he has to have a plan in mind and at a guess I would say he will turn up here or the Champion Hurdle. Of course it would help if the man had said he will run over what before the end of the month…..Hurdles or fences Willie? seems those who interviewd him forgot to ask or he told them to fook off he’s telling them nothing
He’s top class and there’s no comparison to his win at Cheltenham and Zaynar’s last season. Zaynar’s was workmanlike whereas Mikael D’Haguenet was pure class. The one worry is would the trip over hurdles be a bit too sharp for him? He could have easily run him in the easier looking Supreme last season and Cousin Vinny in the Ballymore but chose not to. I think the Champion Hurdle is totally out of the question.
For me his original plan was to go for the RSA but now he surely doesn’t have time to find out if he would get the trip. We all assume he would but WM did say a long time ago he would start him off as an Arkle horse (Run him over 2 miles) and take it from there.
From an Anti Post point of view I hope I’m wrong but if he runs over 2m-2m2f this month and wins well I’d say he’s a stone wall certainty to run in the Arkle and the market will be turned on it’s head. I can’t see him trying to go from there to a 3 mile chase to the RSA in such a short space of time.
Just looking at the Arkle betting what have we got? Captain Cee Bee 6/1 favourite and most likely winner, Sizing Europe 7/1 but may not run, 8/1 Somersby and Tatatiano, The we have Punchestowns
and Long Run who could be anything but can’t jump for sh1t.I can’t be having Somerby he was definitely flattered when beating Crack Away Jack. I said before the race he would win races and be around for along time but he simply isn’t that good. Karabak slaughtered him and he ran a very good race in the Supreme but couldn’t get near the front two. He’ll find these horses much tougher than a Crack Away Jack who didn’t jump a fence.
Tataniano in his defence isn’t Tatenan. I slagged the latter rotten when he was made Arkle fav saying he was a big soft git. Tatatiano is a different type. He’s game as a pebble and very enthusiastic but that might present a problem if Ruby can’t get him to relax he’ll burn himself out. I can see PN telling Ruby to try and run them into the ground in this field, not unless he’s the new Master Minded. Very hard horse to weigh up but you would have to think he’ll be out of his league against these.
Long Run is a different ball game he has the class to win this but who would risk backing a horse who hasn’t got a scoobie what to do if he meets one wrong? No one schools them better than Nicky Henderson but this horse seems to have learned very little since coming over from France and is just as likely to run through a fence than jump one. The thing is Nicky still won’t be that keen to run him unless he jumps really well next time he runs and if Walley Cohen insist he runs he’ll be well looked after. One bad mistake could see him being dropped out and schooled round rather than risking him being injured. I think if he does turn up he’ll be ridden with the future in mind but if he did jump a clear round he could turn this into a procession.
A lot of possible but taking everything into consideration and WM will, we could be looking at a race where 3 horse have it between them; Captain Cee Bee, Somersby and Tatniano. If Mikael D’Haguenet met either of the latter 2 tomorrow what price would he be to beat them?
For me Mikael D’Haguenet 16/1 has got to be worth at least a few quid to cover your back. If he does run and win over fences and WM says Arkle he’ll be 3/1 in a flash. Play to lay could be the name of the game.
Nothing to beat Cheltenham form and Captain Cee Bee and Mikael D’Haguenet hold all the aces in that department.
I’m backing both and hoping Long Run stays home.
(My pasted comment is from page 1 of the Cheltenham 2010 thread).
and Long Run who could be anything but can’t jump for sh1t.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.