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Bit surprised that Steve Mellish put up Riverside Theatre as his value for this – currently I think he is probably the worst value around. For me he is simply not good enough and probably wants 2m2f on a flat track. Didn’t think much of his other value bet either – Menorah – similarly to Riverside Theatre big doubts as to whether Cheltenham will suit and if Bellvano turns out to be third or fourth in Henderson’s pecking order that Kempton form suddenly doesn’t look that hot.
Like you I couldn’t have Riverside Theatre hardly worth a mention in my book. Bellvano wasn’t right the other day and hade gone 3 out according to McCoy. That man is mad how can anything be value to beat Dunguib? If Menorah is value to win the Supreme then Bobby Ewing, who kicked him aside like he didn’t exist, at 16/1 must be the sale of the Century for the Albert Bartlett.
As the resident Arkle expert
I would say the resident Arkle expert is the one who put up Forpadydeplasterer at 20/1 last year!The nearest you got to being a King was in the Kalahari!!
Your comments about Somersby are based on the sour grapes you were eating when he stuffed your Crack away jack at Sandown,he will keep on improving this fellow,mark my words,Gold cup class is Somersby!Lovely horse Captain Cee Bee and a big chance in the Arkle, agree its between him and SE assuming Mikael doesn’t show up, however I have read quite a bit of nonsense about his fall at Leopardstown.
He didn’t ‘overjump’ as Tyrone Molloy insisted in the Weekender..and he didn’t ‘forget to put the landing gear down’ either. He clattered it with his backend and that tipped him up.
I like to see these novices make a few mistakes before the big one to teach them a few lessons both CBB and SE look the best candidates and still attracively priced.- Total Posts 17716
As the resident Arkle expert
I would say the resident Arkle expert is the one who put up Forpadydeplasterer at 20/1 last year!The nearest you got to being a King was in the Kalahari!!
Your comments about Somersby are based on the sour grapes you were eating when he stuffed your Crack away jack at Sandown,he will keep on improving this fellow,mark my words,Gold cup class is Somersby!Now that’s not true I said exactly the same thing about Somersby before he beat CAJ. It’s too late for you as you have already backed him but let’s take a close look at what he has beat.
CAJ flop of the season beaten 12 lengths in his latest run by Petit Robin getting 2lbs. Somersby beat him by about 3 lengths. That’s not exactly Gold Cup class form is it?
Back in 3rd Tchico Polos looks a very ordinary horse, who pretty much unfancied beat Dee EE Williams and Awesome George prior to the race Somersby won. Both finished last when confronted by quality horses in Weird Al and Punchestown beaten miles further by them than they were by Tchco Polos.
Everything points to the Sandown race being very ordinary and miles off the form you need to be winning an Arkle……and 3000 light years from Gold Cup form.
Where Somersby won’t be let down is in his jumping but the engine on evidence so far simply isn’t there. He was a good hurdler and deserves his place in the line up but actually win an Arkle? I just hope you backed him ew cos he won’t be winning any Arkle’s unless by default.
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Incidentally PN wouldn’t talk about TP in the same breath as Tataniano
Big Bucks, are u ready for one of my ‘neck and bo**ox on the line promises’??!!! If Tataniano is good enough to win an Arkle, il go starkers round Punchestown in April!!! I know ul pull me up on that one!!!
Seriously, Paul Nicholls is damn good at talking up his horses. Problem is, they’re not all Kauto, Denman or Masterminded. If Tataniano was as good as he says, he’d of run him in a far better race already. When he fails in the Arkle, which he will (if he actually earns his place there) PN will put it down to a lack of experience. He’s the Master of Ditcheat and the Master of Bul**it. Thats why hes who he is. He gets paid to wax lyrical about everything he owns, especially a Stewart or Smith horse.
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He has all the traits of a good politician, business man and salesman. You sum him up well.
If Tataniano was as good as he says, he’d of run him in a far better race already.
I don’t think he has particularly talked the horse up. You don’t need a crystal ball to think that he might be significantly better than the bare form of his two runs over fences. He is priced up on that potential. As for running in better races how many of the other contenders besides Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee have taken each other on? It is the same situation each year with the fancied runners generally avoiding each other. Tataniano has at least gained some track experience which for me is a big plus. At this stage it is guesswork as to how good he is.
Something tells me Tataniano could turn out to be another Tatanen. Hyped up but fails to deliver. Track experience is a plus but when the stable/jockey hype up a horse so much so early, based primarily on what they have done at home, they rarely deliver….
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While track experience is important it can also be very misleading. If you have a good leper that is very fit and stays well there no better place to make him look like a world beater than Cheltenham.
With it’s undulations horses either run well there or get beaten much further than they would on a park course.
There’s no in between with the place.
Tataten was a classic example of that. Big brute of a horse, all shiny, wins by over 20 lengths, Arkle fav………one problem: back in 2nd Straw Bear.
Tataniano’s profile isn’t that much different he beat Pigeon Island who can be a bit of a monkey by 6 lengths but surely Foster’s Cross would have at least split them had he stood up.
To be honest the way he hold himself he’s a different type of horse to Tatanen. I like the horse he looks very genuine and will win a lot of races in the future but his form isn’t worth a bucket of manure. He should be well into double figures 16-20/1 for the Arkle but he’s PN’s.
He could change all that in his next run if he has one before Chelters but right now I couldn’t have him on my mind as a likely Arkle winner.
No argument on the price – as I said it is based on potential. It is not hard to imagine that he has more improvement in him than the two favourites who would be ‘old’ even by Champion Chase contenders.
Not so sure about Fosters Cross. Cheltenham is about the worse place to speculate about horses travelling well three out. He had raced freely and it is anyone’s guess as to whether he would have found anything up the hill.
Without reading through all of these posts (so sorry if you have already discussed this horse), what do you guys think of Zaarito?
He was quite impressive over Christmas at Leopardstown and could be overpriced at 33-1 with WH. Ran Captain Cee Bee to a head when 2nd at Naas in December. Admittedly that was Captain’s fist run for a long time but its not bad form.
Does anyone know what his festival target is likely to be?
Without reading through all of these posts (so sorry if you have already discussed this horse), what do you guys think of Zaarito?
He was quite impressive over Christmas at Leopardstown and could be overpriced at 33-1 with WH. Ran Captain Cee Bee to a head when 2nd at Naas in December. Admittedly that was Captain’s fist run for a long time but its not bad form.
Does anyone know what his festival target is likely to be?
I’ll convince you more on Zaarito.
Bumper form was top class, dont think anyone would argue what a stinker Russel gave it in the Champion bumper.
It was never a fluent hurdler and Murphy mentioned a few times how he couldnt get to the bottom of the horse and the sleepless nights it gave him. I would disregard his hurdle form for this reason.
But at the same time it was cruising all over a very well backed and hard ridden Copper Bleu when falling at the last in Punchestown festival.His form this season makes me think we are finally seeing its true potential. Cruising on its debut when falling 2 out, a novice mistake which is a good learning mistake eventho I would put some blame with jockey.
Crusing again while Captain Cee Bee was in full drive got too close to the final fence and was only asked after the final fence to pick up which he did but mc coy’s class won out that day. If Townend had went earlier or had not got so close to the last I have no doubt it would have won and easy too.
Leopardstown was a stroll cruising to victory.The repetitive use of cruising is for a reason, this horse as a serious gears and its turn of foot from bumper days has yet to be seen since.
Will be single figures after it hacks up in Irish Arkle later this month
There are two repetitions cruising and makes mistakes at crucial times. One of those isn’t so good. I think I would like his chances a little more if he missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree instead.
True it is a concern. One msitake I mentioned was hurdles and it just wasnt a hurdler.
Besides the 2 mistakes chasing its jumping has been very fluent and if you look back at first race which was ran at a very good pace it gained a lenght or so at other jumps which is a must over 2 miles.
First mistake was a bad fall but it was a learning experience.
To get too close to the last vs CCB was more down to Townend not asking for a big jump and im sure under orders to get the horse round.
No mistakes at Xmas but didnt have to jump the last at speed.
If, as I hope and believe, it wins the Irish Arkle then it has to go to Cheltenham anything outside the top 2 and Aintree would def be the better option
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