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I think Sal’s last post sums it up perfectly. Its because Coolmore run their BUSINESS so brilliantly we get to see such fantastic and exciting horses at the races year in year out.
Interestingly of the 17 horses O’Brien has ran 6 times or more as 2yo’s (HRE ran 7 times as a 2yo) since 2000 only 2 of them went on to win Group 1 races as 3yo’s Rock of Gibraltar and Oratario.
I thought Ian Bartletts accuracy during the heavy fog at Wolves recently was top notch.
The small but important infomation Hoiles includes particularly pace puts him ahead of the bunch but in fairness the overall quality of most of them is very good imo.
Aussie Jim has really disapointed after such a great start, I’d blame laziness more than lack of practice for his customary inaccurate commentary and analysis.
I thought Ian Bartletts accuracy during the heavy fog at Wolves recently was top notch.
The small but important infomation Hoiles includes particularly pace puts him ahead of the bunch but in fairness the overall quality of most of them is very good imo.
Aussie Jim has really disapointed after such a great start, I’d blame laziness more than lack of practice for his customary inaccurate commentary and analysis.
That would be very much appreciated Wallace, thank you. I can PM you email address if you like.
Thanks Alan
Going by my figures then the on course show a minute before the off is usually the returned SP but as you’ve pointed out that may not always be the case which is what I wanted know initially.
I’d still be very interested to know exactly how SP’s are compiled. Of everyhthing I’ve ever read on racing I’ve never found much available on the subject.
AP
I’ve averaged 2500-3000 lay bets a year over the past 2 and a half years and the vast, vast majority of SP’s returned that concerned me concurred with the final internet show at the off. I’ve never needed to think about it so yes I suppose I did have the belief that the 2 were linked because I’ve never had reason to believe otherwise. <br> <br>When I notice instances of this beginning to change I start to question it because I believe its evolve or die at this game and hence my post.
As for systems based on mispaced beliefs…my profit shows me otherwise<br>
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 11:24 am on Feb. 7, 2007)
Yes Artemis that is my assumption….
Based on every SP for the past 9 years I know that 3/1 shots win 22.7% of the time, I know that 11/4 shots win 24.9% of the time.
I concluded a long time ago that over the long term and thats all that matters I will never beat these stats by a big margin. As a layer I operate solely these last few years on the principle that my every lay bet is a value bet with a very small edge, and that edge exerted 7 or 8 times a day over a period of time produces my profits. To my mind thats exactly how the bookmakers operate as well. A small (all be it increasing) margin on each runner exerted dozens of times each day. A small profit on a highturnover.
For me over a period of time the difference between laying a 24.9% chance at 12.5% over these odds and a 22.7% chance at 5% over the odds would be massive.
Thats probably very boring to the formbook purists but its the way I operate.
I accept there are reasons why the internet price and the oncourse price may differ at the off. However in this instance the Paddy Power prices on the RP site do update after the off and reflect what might have been last second changes just before the off. They were still 3/1 on that race when updated after the off and its happening more often these days. I’d love to know what the last price in the shops was…
It dosent happen enough to be concerned about yet but this kind of thing has increased over the last few months.
If you bought a ticket in a raffle to win a 2007 7 series BMW and then upon winning was told the prize was now a 2004 5 series BMW because the organisers "said so" you’d probably take it further….
Nick Mordins piece in last weeks weekender is a very good read. One thing for sure thank **** I dont have to bet at SP with lowlife bookmakers any more.
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 10:34 am on Feb. 7, 2007)
Being a layer I live and die by the price I get matched at. The price is everything, its the only thing that matters in the long run.
I laid Dapple Dawn at 3.1/1 seconds before the off because I believed (correctly) that it would go off at 3/1 seconds later. Based on the RP website (all the bookmaker prices) and the SL website reported prices of 3/1 at the off I had no reason to believe the returned SP would be any lower than 3/1. I’m now left with an overlay of 12.7% instead of 5% which over a period of time makes a huge difference when you factor in comission on top.
The overall change to SP’s are only beneficial to me if I can get my lay matched at a predetermined overlay on SP. If that SP is going to be shorter than the advertised price at the off it really can hurt my profits. It hasnt happened enough lately to be of huge concern but its instance is increasing.
Total fraud by the bookmakers if you ask me!!
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 12:32 am on Feb. 7, 2007)
Would concur with the compliments paid to Lydia, she is a class act. Another female doing an excellent job (and gets very little credit) is Tanya Stephensen. She puts most of the so called experts on C4 to shame with her very well thought out selections. Good on you both.
Congratulations she did it very well! Very nice mention for the forum by Sean Boyce on ATR as well.
Smart:1st time H/G = 2-49…..4.1%…..-35 quid to lvl stks<br>Meehan:1st time H/G= 17-223…..7.6%…..-87.5 quid to lvl stks
Results are since 1st Jan 2000 and do not include todays
The name of several places in France and Switzerland
Hi Seagull
Twister at Perth 2005+….25.9% and -7.09 quid lvl stake loss
Ferdy at Uttox 2005+…..11.5% and -14.12 quid lvl stake loss
Nicholls at Win 2005+…..27.6% and 11.90 quid lvl stake profit
Ruby at Ain 2005+…..21.5% and +3.32 quid lvl stake profit
Mrs K at New 2005+…..0.00% and -13.00 quid lvl stake loss
Richards at Per 2005+…..15.2% and -16.75 quid lvl stake loss
21 years data…<br>SP 1/2 or shorter…..74.75%…..1.82% level stakes loss<br>SP 6/4 to 15/8………35.12%…..5.94% level stakes loss
