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Thanks EW, I put up the lay at the price I want at the off and leave it at that. Until recently its been matched 90% of the time, I wouldnt dream of laying in play based on what I see on my TV given all the factors you state in your previous post.
Barry…dont want to get into a slagging match with you but it really is a pity you always choose the smart alec approach above making any meaningful input on a forum where most of the regular posters do just that.
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 10:30 pm on Dec. 28, 2006)
<br>(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 12:20 am on Dec. 29, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 12:20 am on Dec. 29, 2006)
Thanks EW, I’ll continue to monitor closely for a while, I lay in running quite a bit and in fairness a lot of those 18 were held up although not all of them!
As for Barry Dennis, what a pity a so called professional cant put more than 2 sentences of commonsense together in the off moments when he’s not shooting his smart alec mouth off. Thank God I dont have to bet with the likes of that any more.
Reason I ask…I have an 87% strike rate on my last 300 lays all at SP 10/1 and below. My last 18 lays I couldnt get matched for love nor money at my usual requested overlay price. If BF employees are laying what I’m trying to lay I will give up at his game for good. I hope its just a blip we’ll see……..
I will base my selections on the horses and trainers that were consistently good to my betting bank when racing at the highest levels of the sport in 2006.
Trainers = PJ Hobbs and A OBrien
Horses = Ouija Board and Detroit City
Poster = Alan Potts ( always insightful and well informed)
Moments of the year = Ruby Walshes immeadite post race interview on the BBC after his victory at Aintree on Kauto Star (the most insightful interview given all year imo). Georgous Georges antics after winning the Guinneas, Y Takes incredibly weak finish in the Arc, Horatio Nelson breaking down at Epsom and Teofilos victory in the Dewhurst all readily come to mind, there are probbably more.
Most missed posters on TRF = Stav and EC
Curiously enough if you had backed all Frankie’s rides to level stakes in the 4 years after the "magnificent 7" you would have lost less money then if you backed him in the 4 years prior to the 7 i.e he became a bigger liability for the "Cartel" after that fateful day. It also insults massively one of the greatest sportsmen of his generation in any sport. If the whole thing was rigged to encourage people to bet on the horses it backfired massively as the "Cartels" take from horseracing in the last few years has decreased not increased.
The robot-speak is getting tiresome.
To call Frankie Dettori an "up and coming jockey" (prolouge P39 of the book) when at that stage in 1996 in the UK alone he had already won races such as the 2000 Guineas, Ascot Gold Cup, Fillies Mile, Golden Jubilee, International Stakes, King George and Queen Elizabeth, Nunthorpe, Oaks, Queen Anne, QEII, St Ledger, Sun Chariot, Sussex Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks, is frankly beyond belief and would already to my mind put the authors creditentials on the line.
To also state that the outcome of "every important football match" is known "before they even start" must then make Roy Keane, John Terry, and Jose Mourinho the greatest actors since time began.
There probably is some insight into how odds are compiled and distributed and for that alone the book may have some merit but the claims of its author who now must be a multi millionaire are frankly ridiculous.
Get him off!!
Then dont bet at SP simple as that. You can get a 102% overround on every race every day of the year elsewhere. Punters punted at much bigger overounds for decades before the coming of the exchanges and nobody complained too much. Even with bigger overrounds a magin 0f 1.75% – 2% per runner is much better than it used to be and these margins only exist because punters punt at those prices. You do have a choice these days but try explaining percentages to a betting shop mug! If your willing to accept a rip off price from a Big bookmaker thats your problem not theirs, all their doing is facilitating you. Its all about market forces and what punters are willing to accept. If punters dont bet at odds offered by the Big 3 you’ll see them react accordingly. Bookies know most punters are mugs and will accept anything and I for one dont blame them for that.
If your a layer on the big exchange and you know what your doing their is massive value at present, the twilight meetings at Kempton in particular are a small goldmine so I’m definatley not complaining. The only people getting ripped off are the mugs, it has always been so and will always been so. Racing exists on a daily tidal wave of mug money. Long may it continue!
Cant see how analysing all those factors would lead to a conclusion that would be any different from market expectation over the long term.
Preacher Boy
Trip and going suit and decent recent form at a high level with a low weight
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 2:44 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
I cant see it working not with UK horse racing anyway. They dont seem to be too much cheaper on comission either. The market base rate for the horses is 5%, and discount points acrue at 1 per 1 pound of commisionable activity as opposed to 1 per 10p on the big exchange. I think the big exchange would react aggressively to any attempt to lure away the minority of its customers who provide the majority of its liquidty on UK horse racing. And Desmonds exchange has already mopped up a large part of what remains on other sports markets. Daft idea, should have stuck to property although I wish them well. Serious competition would be very welcome.
I’ve done some more checking, 185 of the 187 4yo+ handicap chases in 2006 so far have been since the 1st of August, so thats when the age limit was lowered, although to date of the 1584 horses that ran in these races only 16 were 4yo’s.
Do they supply the previous days results before the start of racing the next day, similar to the skeleton results provided by Raceform Interactive shortly after midnight?
Here are my 10 to follow, the first 9 are young progressive sorts and I’ve permed them with the last 3 who are my, Hennessy, Gold Cup, and Grand National type selections
Mid Dancer<br>Joaaci<br>Detroit City<br>Star De Mohaison<br>Kasbah Bliss<br>Neptune Collanges<br>Fair Along<br>Voy Por Ustedes<br>Fire Dragon<br>State of Play<br>War Of Attrition<br>Idle Talk<br>
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 8:24 pm on Nov. 9, 2006)
