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Best Flat Jockey

Viewing 13 posts - 1 through 13 (of 13 total)
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  • #651
    alan1
    Member
    • Total Posts 167

    The stats in yesterdays RP for the 2006 flat season made interested reading. One stat that I always feel is a good indication of how good a jockey is, is the one that shows the % of favourites that they have ridden which have won.

    I see that Brett Doyle has a 60% strike rate for this although, his results may be skewed as he hasn’t had nearly as many rides as the top jocks.

    And of the top jocks Dettori has the best strike rate on favourites, which confirms my personal view that he is the best jockey around.

    Alan<br>

    #35172
    warrej
    Member
    • Total Posts 37

    Quote: from alan1 on 11:55 am on Jan. 4, 2007[br]And of the top jocks Dettori has the best strike rate on favourites, which confirms my personal view that he is the best jockey around.<br>

    I would guess he probably rides a few "false" favourites as well i.e. the horse has been made favourite through punter power just because Frankie is riding it

    #35173
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4563

    I’m not sure it’s necessarily a good guide to jockeys’ relative abilities, more to the value of their mounts in the market.

    Rob

    #35174
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Perhaps a better indicator would be the VSP (Variable Stakes Profit), whereby if we backed every favourite (or even every horse) to win €100 then how much profit/loss would have been made. This automatically takes the price (and by implication, chance of winning) of the horse into account.

    #35175
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Or you could watch the races and form your own opinion of a riders merit instead of looking at an arbitrary factor and trying to link the two together.

    #35176
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    <br>Or you could employ them to ride a horse you have an interest in  –  and find out if they can be arsed to even listen to the instructions, let alone bother to carry them out!

    We weren’t expecting a flying dismount, but ……

    AP

    #35177
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Quote: from apracing on 3:36 pm on Jan. 4, 2007[br]<br>Or you could employ them to ride a horse you have an interest in  –  and find out if they can be arsed to even listen to the instructions, let alone bother to carry them out!<br>AP

    In that case AP, Phil Kinsella is on his way to the top :biggrin:

    #35178
    roryrory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    The notion that % of winning favourites is a reliable guide to the merit of jockeys is laughable. Do you believe that a Godolphin maiden winner at Redcar and the Stewards Cup winner are equally easy to steer?

    #35179
    yeatsyeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2923

    If you’re going down that path alan I would have thought a pound level stake on all rides was better, I prefer to use my eyes and too would have Frankie as No 1.

    #35180
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    The eye can be deceptive. Style can win over content.

    Didn’t John Whitley’s computer formbook thingy used to come up with an evaluation of jockeys merits based on a pretty exhaustive number crunching exercise, with often surprising results.

    Also, there is an article which looks interesting (but not interesting enough for me to pay for it!) which those with an interest in this subject may find of interest. Here’s the blurb and the link to teh pdf file which you have to pay for.

    It’s Not What You Pay it’s the Way that You Pay it and that’s What Gets Results: Jockeys’ Pay and Performance <br>Sue Fernie & David Metcalf <br>Management scholars and economists have recently set out the requirements of a system to elicit good performance when it is necessary to align the interests of the principal and agent. We analyse pay and performance in an occupation â€â€Â

    #35181
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    The notion that % of winning favourites is a reliable guide to the merit of jockeys is laughable. Do you believe that a Godolphin maiden winner at Redcar and the Stewards Cup winner are equally easy to steer?

    Good point.

    I’d bet a lot of the faves Frankie rides are very short prices in maiden and conditions races.  

    So, a high strike rate should be expected on these.

    Steve

    #35182
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    It really begs a few questions ..

    Would the favourite be a favourite if jockey ‘x’ was booked and not jockey ‘y’?

    What is the relationship between the favourite and the jockey with the highest strike rank in the race?

    .. and so forth .. !

    #35183
    CavCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4811

    Based on 18 years data for all flat races

    All Fav’s…30.70% and a 7.34% loss to level stakes<br>Favs ridden by highest strike rate jockey…..35.10% and a 5.32% loss to level stakes

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