January 4, 2007 at 11:55 #651alan1Member
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The stats in yesterdays RP for the 2006 flat season made interested reading. One stat that I always feel is a good indication of how good a jockey is, is the one that shows the % of favourites that they have ridden which have won.
I see that Brett Doyle has a 60% strike rate for this although, his results may be skewed as he hasnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t had nearly as many rides as the top jocks.
And of the top jocks Dettori has the best strike rate on favourites, which confirms my personal view that he is the best jockey around.
Alan<br>January 4, 2007 at 12:05 #35172warrejMember
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Quote: from alan1 on 11:55 am on Jan. 4, 2007[br]And of the top jocks Dettori has the best strike rate on favourites, which confirms my personal view that he is the best jockey around.<br>
I would guess he probably rides a few "false" favourites as well i.e. the horse has been made favourite through punter power just because Frankie is riding itJanuary 4, 2007 at 13:25 #35173robnorthParticipant
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I’m not sure it’s necessarily a good guide to jockeys’ relative abilities, more to the value of their mounts in the market.
RobJanuary 4, 2007 at 13:31 #35174davidbradyMember
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Perhaps a better indicator would be the VSP (Variable Stakes Profit), whereby if we backed every favourite (or even every horse) to win ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚Â¬100 then how much profit/loss would have been made. This automatically takes the price (and by implication, chance of winning) of the horse into account.January 4, 2007 at 14:46 #35175davidjohnsonMember
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Or you could watch the races and form your own opinion of a riders merit instead of looking at an arbitrary factor and trying to link the two together.January 4, 2007 at 15:36 #35176apracingParticipant
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<br>Or you could employ them to ride a horse you have an interest in – and find out if they can be arsed to even listen to the instructions, let alone bother to carry them out!
We weren’t expecting a flying dismount, but ……
APJanuary 4, 2007 at 16:12 #35177davidjohnsonMember
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Quote: from apracing on 3:36 pm on Jan. 4, 2007[br]<br>Or you could employ them to ride a horse you have an interest in Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â – Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â and find out if they can be arsed to even listen to the instructions, let alone bother to carry them out!<br>AP
In that case AP, Phil Kinsella is on his way to the top :biggrin:January 5, 2007 at 11:33 #35178roryParticipant
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The notion that % of winning favourites is a reliable guide to the merit of jockeys is laughable. Do you believe that a Godolphin maiden winner at Redcar and the Stewards Cup winner are equally easy to steer?January 5, 2007 at 11:39 #35179yeatsParticipant
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If you’re going down that path alan I would have thought a pound level stake on all rides was better, I prefer to use my eyes and too would have Frankie as No 1.January 5, 2007 at 12:07 #35180cormack15Keymaster
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The eye can be deceptive. Style can win over content.
Didn’t John Whitley’s computer formbook thingy used to come up with an evaluation of jockeys merits based on a pretty exhaustive number crunching exercise, with often surprising results.
Also, there is an article which looks interesting (but not interesting enough for me to pay for it!) which those with an interest in this subject may find of interest. Here’s the blurb and the link to teh pdf file which you have to pay for.
It’s Not What You Pay it’s the Way that You Pay it and that’s What Gets Results: Jockeys’ Pay and Performance <br>Sue Fernie & David Metcalf <br>Management scholars and economists have recently set out the requirements of a system to elicit good performance when it is necessary to align the interests of the principal and agent. We analyse pay and performance in an occupation ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬ÂJanuary 5, 2007 at 12:20 #35181stevedvgMember
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The notion that % of winning favourites is a reliable guide to the merit of jockeys is laughable. Do you believe that a Godolphin maiden winner at Redcar and the Stewards Cup winner are equally easy to steer?
I’d bet a lot of the faves Frankie rides are very short prices in maiden and conditions races.
So, a high strike rate should be expected on these.
SteveJanuary 5, 2007 at 20:35 #35182dave jayMember
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It really begs a few questions ..
Would the favourite be a favourite if jockey ‘x’ was booked and not jockey ‘y’?
What is the relationship between the favourite and the jockey with the highest strike rank in the race?
.. and so forth .. !January 5, 2007 at 21:56 #35183CavParticipant
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Based on 18 years data for all flat races
All Fav’s…30.70% and a 7.34% loss to level stakes<br>Favs ridden by highest strike rate jockey…..35.10% and a 5.32% loss to level stakes
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