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I don’t want to quote Sizing Europe entirely as a spring horse as his record in the past has been grand. However, over the last few seasons, this has tended to be the case. He hasn’t seemed to be fully prepped until the big un comes round in March – course, ground or trip not seeming to matter. He did however impress me at Down Royal, in a good field, over further than I prefer him to go, on ground that a pig would be cautious to roll in. How will the ground be on Saturday? If anyone knows please inform.
There are definitely question marks against all the remaining entrants – is Wishfull Thinking quick enough to win this class of race over 2 miles? Will Tataniano perform if the ground comes up soft? Kauto Stone is an unlikely runner, but if he were to show, would 2 miles be his ideal trip?
I think who wins much depends on the ground, more so than any race I can remember for some time. Sizing Europe at his best is definitely a class apart from these at this trip and if this was at Cheltenham on good ground in March I think it would be laughable that we’d even be debating this. However it’s not, which raises an issue. On good ground on Saturday, I could easily see this being a 2 way duel between our Champion Chaser and Tataniano, who in his own right is a classy performer, given the fact he gets good ground.
Wishfull Thinking just isn’t for me in this one. If anything I think a raise in trip would be more his cup of tea.
Soft ground on Saturday would bring Gauvain right into the equation. He beat a good field including both Tataniano and Forpadydeplasterer in the sludge at Cheltenham last year, and though he hasn’t done a lot since, could well be in the mix if he gets the right ground. We know Sizing Europe prefers quicker going but he certainly can act on soft.
Ground dependant outcome for me –
Good ground – Sizing Europe or Tataniano
Soft ground – Sizing Europe, Gauvain(e/w) sorry for the essay!!!
Never fancied Binocular and point well proven today. At his best, he’s clearly better than the rest of the field here, but how many chances is he going to get? Ok, he has a rough record first time out, but it’s getting a bit silly now. Unless he runs away with any races this year, my opinion of him will be lowered greatly
Thoroughly engrossing race, rife with talking points. Aiteen Thirtythree travelled beautifully, but didn’t appear to stay, which surprised me as I secretly suspected this race was just for him. It makes me wonder if the Ryanair is more his race, or whether he’s just not as good as Paul Nicholls suspected.
Full respect to Carruthers though, and everyone who’s part of his story. I honestly never saw him as the winner, but it certainly doesn’t grieve me to see him first past the post. Well done to everyone involved
JJM – Nicky Henderson said that Riverside Theatre had a setback and isn’t expected to be ready in time for the King George. If he makes it though I agree he’s definitely worth an e/w punt given his course form.
I can’t help but think that Long Run wasn’t probably wound up for Haydock, and although he seemed totally outclassed on Saturday, my first thought would be that come Boxing Day he’ll be a totally different proposition, especially on a course he loves.
Although the temptation to run Kauto after his fantastic showing in the Betfair is clear, Nicholls’s original plan was to run he and Denman just twice this year. In my humble opinion he should be kept fresh and wrapped in cotton wool until Cheltenham.
I can’t look past Long Run here, he’s bound to be back to his best for this one and whether or not Kauto does run(which it looks likely he will), he’s the obvious pick. The King George and Gold Cup were always going to be the races that Long Run were being fully aimed at this season, and with that in mind, his jumping should be a lot more tuned by then. I’m just waiting for a decent price though, as if and when Kauto’s confirmed as a definite, he’s bound to get smashed in.
Considering his general lack of consistency over the past couple of years I’d be very wary of Binocular, especially first time out at odds on. That said though it does look a poor renewal.
Does anyone know for sure whether Brampour is set to take his place or whether he will wait for the International Hurdle as was originally planned? My instincts tell me he’ll skip Saturday as all his usual jockey options are otherwise engaged.
Hard to oppose Henderson in his current form and with the day he’s just had. However, I do believe if Long Run’s there to be got, it’ll be tomorrow. His main aims for the season are obviously to retain the King George and Gold Cup, and with that in mind you’d assume he won’t be tip top until Boxing Day.
Diamond Harry of course has the course form and runs well fresh(which given last years Paddy Power performance, is a relative unknown with regards to Long Run). He is a class horse and has reportedly been working very well.
I’m just hoping like everyone here that Kauto has a safe journey round, whether he’ll bother the first 2 I don’t know but as far as I’m concerned that’s not the name of the game for tomorrow.
For me Time For Rupert would be better off taking his place in what looks a very winnable Hennessy. Would be running off a very decent mark and second season chasers have a good record in the race. Weird Al is good but I doubt if such a fragile horse can recreate that Charlie Hall performance less than a month after the race.
It’s Diamond Harry for me, Long Run looks beatable on his reappearance. However, I can’t see him being beaten again this season……………
Don’t underestimate Master Minded. He surely won’t lose 2 runs from 2 for the season. How can it be implied that he doesn’t stay, did you not see him in the Melling? He was fantastic in this last year, albeit after Albertas Run fell. Also, take note, exactly what did Captain Chris do last year in the first half of the year? Somersby and Medermit are good horses but nearly horses, I’d have Master Minded every day of the week
I’d agree that if Peddlers Cross can translate his hurdling form to fences he’ll be incredibly hard to beat. However, one that I think everyone seems to have written off far too quickly is Menorah. Hobbs has always said that he’s a chaser in the making, he looked a smart hurdler and can surely be excused one off-day at the last festival. He also boasts great course form which come March could see him run a big race. Right now I’d go between these two
It’s got to be Hurricane Fly’s again, sheer class! I can’t see Binocular ever reaching the heights we’ve seen him hit again. All the best of the rest from last year all appear to be going novice chasing and the trendlines show that novices stepping up for the first time have a shocking record in the race. If he stays fit he wins
Weapons Amnesty is a really good bet if you ask me. I wouldn’t be at all put off if the horse shows no kind of form until March as he’s already show that he acts well round Cheltenham, winning his last two festival races, including one against someone called Long Run. Granted the latter may have lacked experience and his jumping may have come on a lot since but if you’re asking me to back ante-post now I’d rather have Weapons Amnesty e/w at 20s than Long Run at around 5-2. I suppose the injury lay off would be a concern at this stage, but Hurricane Fly seemed to manage ok earlier this year
