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Amlin 1965 Chase 2011

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  • #20243
    shabbyshabby
    Member
    • Total Posts 638

    Captain Chris seems very generously priced here at 9/4.

    He receives weight from the clearly inferior Medermit and that old media darling and career under achiever Somersby has to give him 1lb as well (CC favoured by slightly strange race conditions).

    The recently somewhat disappointing Master Minded must give 5lbs to the most exciting novice chasere in UK and Ireland last year. The rest have little chance.
    He looks value …I make him a 6/4 shot

    #378065
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    I’m still not convinced Master Minded stays these extended trip in a true run race. He won this last year but against the average Imsingingthblues and he saw out a race over 20f at Haydock that fell apart around him. On the two other occasions when put under pressure he looked every bit a non stayer.

    He either doesn’t truly stay or he just can’t cope with pressure and falls apart when it’s applied. Very strange horse and hard to trust.

    He wants some pressure he’ll get plenty from Captain Chris.

    I reckon he’ll eat Master Minded alive and go as far as say he’s the best of the season so far at that price.

    #378068
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5922

    I agree Captain Chris will win this race then put it to Long run in KG

    #378093
    JJMSportsJJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2036

    Not sure what to make of this.

    Master Minded 3/3 at Ascot, including winning this by 16 lengths last year.

    Somersby and Captain Chris have looked very promising on their season debuts, and should be improving against the veteran.

    How would other people price up a 100% book?

    #378094
    bozlikebozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1678

    Don’t underestimate Master Minded. He surely won’t lose 2 runs from 2 for the season. How can it be implied that he doesn’t stay, did you not see him in the Melling? He was fantastic in this last year, albeit after Albertas Run fell. Also, take note, exactly what did Captain Chris do last year in the first half of the year? Somersby and Medermit are good horses but nearly horses, I’d have Master Minded every day of the week

    @TomBarkley87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

    #378096
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    All I’m saying it’s one thing getting the trip when your main contenders run no sort of race but a completely different thing when they are on song. Alberta’s Run was beat 7 fences from home and made blunder after blunder, Somerby ran miles below par and Master Minded was never out of cruise control.

    Maybe he does get the trip but when he comes under pressure there’s no fight there. He did beat Big Zeb in a tight finish but that was before Big Zeb was Big Zeb and it was more down to Master Minded stopping in the heavy ground than Big Zeb going forward.

    He also stopped or weakened if you like when almost caught by Somerby in the Victor Chandler.

    For me Master Minded has this annoying weakness of folding very easily and I say putting your finger on the reason isn’t easy but it is a fact of his make up.

    As far as Captain Chris goes you have to be kidding suggesting what he did early last season is some kind of trait.

    Philip Hobs refused to push the horse to peak fitness last season as he was still very much a big baby. It wasn’t until he ran in the Pendil at Kempton that he really came to himself.

    On his only appearance this season he ran a bit ring rusty.as you do but despite making a couple of minor and 1 bad mistake at the 4th last he had the race in the bag until Richard Johnson saw a fiver lying in the grass and decided to get off and pick it up.

    As far as I’m concerned he only needs to jump some silly would be Haydock fences to beat Master Minded.

    Perfect time to be taking 8/1 if you haven’t backed him already . for the King George he’ll be no better than 9/2 after this.

    #378116
    kasparovkasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 662

    Bookies look to have this about right I would say. On his best form MM should win. CC should win if MM not on best form . Somersby and Medermit might win with a bit of luck and the others have about a 10% chance between them. So my book would be roughly in decimals MM and CC 3.25 each, Somersby, Merdermit 7 each, leaving rags at about 8 combined.

    Not sure about the effect on the King George odds. I guess Long Run will win the Betfair Chase emphatically, and it’s also not clear that any of the runners in the Amlin is best at 3 miles.

    #378357
    PantsPants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 630

    Captain Chris out.

    All boils down to whether Master Minded has an off day or an on day. In my opinion he’s too big a risk betting wise so I’ll take Somersby, was impressed with his first run this season and if MM’s not at he’s best he’ll have the beating of him, 9/4 looks good to me.

    #378667
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    Damn shame Captain Chris didn’t run.

    Well done to those who stood by Master Minded he stayed on well despite my reservations.

    I nearly backed him to be honest as the price looked huge and I am not a big fan of Somerby who lacks that certain touch. Alas I had a wager on Medermeit thinking I could lay him back in running. I’m still waiting :lol:

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