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HENNESSEY GOLD GUP NEWBURY Preview
B0186-
Neptune Collonges
(224 days)
10 11-12 Paul Nicholls
168:
Neptunes Collonges wouldn’t be out of this even under top weight at his very best of a few years ago. Now 10 years old and had injuries since, so it’s unlikely he’s up to producing form that saw him placed in the Gold Cup. Won a poor Cotswold Chase last season from the enigmatic Tidal Bay, making all under AP McCoy. Now ridden by very promising 7lb claimer Harry Derham. Neptune Collonges has himself showed some temperamental traits recently. Possibly does not like being crowded. Races genuinely when able to race prominently.433-1
Joncol
(23 days)
8 11-6 Paul Nolan
(Ireland) 162:
Joncol is yet to race in Britain but is one of the best staying chasers in Ireland. Won Grade 1 Irish Hennessey in February 2010. Thought not to be a Cheltenham type, possibly to do with jumping out to his right (sometimes markedly so). Something that must be a worry around here. Most of his form (which looks exposed) is with plenty of give in the ground. Big brute of a horse, who wasn’t the most consistent last year. Probably didn’t need to be at his best on reappearance.01/35-
Planet Of Sound
(315 days)
9 11-2 Philip Hobbs
158: Three time Newbury winner Planet Of Sound finished third in Betfair Chase to Imperial Commander before a distant 5th in King George. Said to have choked and not seen since. Might have had a wind operation in interim. Well handicapped on form of 2010 Guinness Gold Cup win. That seems a stand out performance and there are question marks about all three who chased him home, War Of Attrition, Cooldine and Denman. Planet Of Sound has to prove himself at the trip.
12F2-1
Sarando
(19 days)
6 10-11 Paul Webber
153: Sarando almost took advantage of top Irish novice Quito De La Roque’s stumble when a neck second at 50/1 in Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree over 3m1f. Fit from a run on the flat when easily accounting for the inexperienced, slow jumping Aikman on reappearance. Sarando races prominently or tracks pace. Gets a 4 lb penalty for that win, doesn’t look especially well handicapped, but is only a six year old and could yet improve further. Effective on good as well as soft ground.
111P-2
Aiteen Thirtythree
(26 days)
7 10-10 Paul Nicholls
152: Aiteen Thirtythree was talked up as the Nicholls Hennessey prospect since early last season. Whether he’d be so short without those words from the trainer is debatable. Difficult to know quite what he’s achieved. Made just about all in a couple of small field novice chases, winning by significant margins on each occasion. However, both runners-up Tarsblaze and Voramar Two made it easy by making numerous mistakes. Then Aiteen Thirtythree went to Cheltenham for the RSA, never travelling with same fluency and pulled up, reportedly had leg treatment afterwards. Again led on reappearance at Kempton over inadequate 2m4f, 3 lengths second to Somersby at level weights in a virtual match. Walsh easy on him once passed going to the last. Winner went on to be a good second to Master Minded in Ascot’s Amlin Chase. Whether he’s well handicapped depends on if Henrietta Knight’s charge needed to be anywhere near best at Kempton? Aiteen Thirtythree is lightly raced and undoubted potential to improve, particularly at this trip in his first handicap chase. Front runner over fences and remains to be seen how he’ll like being taken on.
6119P-
Blazing Bailey
(224 days)
9 10-9 Alan King
151: Blazing Bailey usually races lazily and as such will possibly need this first outing of the season. Used to be a top class hurdler at his best, not so good over the larger obstacles but handicap mark accounts for that. Inconsistent these days and lost form again in the spring. Although quirky and often gets behind, is genuine in a finish. Possibly too exposed to win a big handicap like this.
62F6-1
Great Endeavour
(14 days)
7 10-9 David Pipe
151: Great Endeavour won the Paddy Power with ease. Set to go up 10 lbs in future handicaps and gets just a 4 lb penalty for winning by 7 lengths, so officially 6 lbs well-in. There is a doubt about stamina, yet to win in three attempts at 3 miles plus. However, that does not tell the whole story… Close third to Lie Forrit in a 3m1f110yrds handicap hurdle in soft ground at Cheltenham, his best performance up to that point. Fell in last season’s 3m110yrds handicap chase on good ground at the Festival. Hardly surprising Great Endeavour was so tired two out when coming to grief. Murphy caught out the back as the tapes went up. Despite a strong pace rushed around most of the field to get his customary prominent position. All things considered did remarkably well to be still there two out. Had Great Endeavour got a more conventional prominent ride, in my opinion he’d have at least been placed and would’ve stayed the trip. Newbury is another two furlongs but isn’t such a stiff course. After such a hard race it wasn’t surprising Aintree came too soon and beaten two out over 3m1f on good ground. Although still not certain to get 3m2f110yrds, particularly if it’s testing ground; has a far better chance of doing so than a quick glance at the "form" (figures) suggest. Two weeks doesn’t seem a long time before reappearing, but six others here ran on Paddy Power day.
B121-
Beshabar
(224 days)
9 10-8 Tim Vaughan
150: Beshabar showed improved form tackling extreme distances (4 miles plus) on last two starts of 2010/11. Won the Scottish National as a novice off a mark of 146, a rise of 4 lbs looks very fair. Raced prominently along with second placed Merigo. Also second in National Hunt Chase. Whether the Hennessey trip will be far enough is doubtful. Soft ground might allow him to bring stamina in to play. Being campaigned this year with a view to the Grand National and Chepstow may provide a better winning opportunity.
11134-
Wayward Prince
(232 days)
7 10-8 Ian Williams
150: Wayward Prince finished best of all to be beaten only a length in third in 3 mile RSA. Increased test of stamina sure to play to his strengths. Probably not over that run when only fourth to Quito De La Roque at Aintree. Visor to try and get him travelling better possibly backfiring, making several errors. Hennessey pilot Dougie Costello has ridden him six times, winning five and runner-up once. Equally effective on soft or good ground. Can improve, especially if brushing up his jumping and looks value at around 10/1.
6649-3
Carruthers
(14 days)
8 10-4 Mark Bradstock
146: Carruthers often ruins his chance by going off too fast for his own good, including on reappearance at Cheltenham. Better than form figures suggest if ridden with a little more restraint. Front running is fine, but there’s no need to try and slip the field so early. There are other possible front runners in the field which may count against him. Particularly good strike rate with plenty of give underfoot, although also good fourth in 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup on good ground. Dropped 10 lbs since finishing 6th in last year’s Hennessey.
31311/
Michel Le Bon
(730 days)
8 10-4 Paul Nicholls
146: Michael Le Bon must be showing something on the gallops. Not seen under rules since this meeting in 2009. Making all to win his only steeplechase, with any amount in hand by 60 lengths from only one other finisher. Lightly raced with only five career starts, which hasn’t stopped him having a good record at Newbury, two wins and a third. Successful at the furthest he’s raced over (3m1f) and on soft as well as good ground. Stable second string on jockey bookings, Nicholls thinks Michel Le Bon has just as good a chance as Aiteen Thirtythree. Noel Fehily takes the ride. Michel Le Bon is very inexperienced and unlikely to get his own way in front, has bags of potential if remaining sound.
631418
Muirhead
(28 days)
8 10-4 Noel Meade
(Ireland) 146: Muirhead has a chance on form, wins his fair share of races but like many from the Meade / Carberry partnership doesn’t find much off the bridle. Disappointing 6th last time out at Ascot, beaten before hampered. Comfortable winner on penultimate start of Munster “National” (3 miles). Yet to race further than a bare 3 miles. Travels well in his races, effective at much shorter distances and not certain to stay this far. Although a winner on heavy, will be best suited by conditions which place an emphasis on speed at this 3m2f110yrds trip.
1UF-4U
The Giant Bolster
(14 days)
6 10-4 David Bridgewater
146: Encouraging fourth on reappearance over an inadequate two and a half miles. Yet to try this trip, has looked a lazy sort on occasions and should stay if conditions aren’t testing. However, failed to get around on three of last four starts, including unseating at the first fence in Paddy Power Gold Cup last time. Stable going better this season so it won’t be a surprise if he showed some improvement if everything comes together, particularly as he’s only six years old.
111P-
Wymott
(255 days)
7 10-2 Donald McCain
144: Wymott looked to have a good each way chance in the RSA. Wore cheek pieces for the first time there and if memory serves weak in the market on the day. Never looked happy, soon behind and jumping poorly. A small hairline fracture diagnosed. Winner of three small novice chases prior to Cheltenham and seemed a genuine sort. Mark of 144 could look lenient if retaining enthusiasm. Winner of a Grade 2 hurdle beating Wayward Prince at level weights. Too long ago to be significant to the two’s chances against each other. Does prove Wymott’s class. If anything, appeals as the sort to make a better chaser than hurdler. Trip won’t be a problem, best form so far on a soft surface.
34-U26
Fair Along
(14 days)
9 10-0 Philip Hobbs
142: Fair Along is better over hurdles, good second to Restless Harry penultimate start. Lower handicap mark over fences takes that in to account. Possibly increasingly quirky. Nothing wrong with finishing effort, but often sulks when unable to lead. This may not be the ideal race for him, with so many prominent horses likely to take him on. Led in to start last time, well beaten sixth to Galaxy Rock. Although pushed along behind rivals isn’t certain to stay this distance. Possibly best suited by a sound surface these days, has a top-of-the-ground action (points toe).
1P-15P
Balthazar King
(14 days)
7 10-0
(long handicap 9-13)
Philip Hobbs
141: Balthazar King stays 3m2f well. Seemed a progressive young chaser when winning at Cheltenham’s October meeting on reappearance. Disappointing since, another who likes to lead and possibly doesn’t jump as well when unable to get his own way. Might be one to look out for in a race he’s more likely to dominate. One pound out of handicap if Neptunes Collonges runs.
123-5F
Tullamore Dew
(14 days)
9 10-0
(9-12)
Nick Gifford
140: Tullamore Dew isn’t usually a poor jumper and it’s hoped a reappearance fall hasn’t effected confidence. Effective from the front or held up. Very good third to Divers in Centenary Novice Handicap Chase, 2m4f at the Cheltenham Festival. Winner subsequently franked the form with third in Paddy Power Gold Cup. Tullamore Dew is unraced further than 2m5f, should get a bit further but 3m2f110yrds is questionable. Despite stamina doubts and 2 lbs out of the handicap looks a fairly priced outsider if taking his chance.
028-15
Billie Magern
(14 days)
7 10-0
(9-11)
Nigel Twiston-Davis
139: Billie Magern won on reappearance before raced from 5lbs out of the weights in Paddy Power Handicap last time. Fair 5th, beaten 28 lengths by Great Endeavour. Set to renew rivalry on only 6 lbs better terms (set to be 3 lbs out of handicap on Saturday). Showed there he does not need to lead, outpaced before staying on. Proven at 3 miles, second to Master Of The Hall in below par Reynoldstown last season. Full brother to Ollie Magern so should stay this far. Looks more exposed than most here unless he can improve at the trip. Acts well on soft as well as a sound surface.
P1R-12
Qhilimar
(27 days)
7 10-0
(9-9)
Charlie Longsdon
137: Qhilimar was in good form in the Autumn, winning at Newton Abbott and second in valuable Cumberland Handicap at Carlisle. Staying on well at 3 miles and will be better suited by a return to this trip. His excellent trainer was banging in the winners when Qhilimar was last seen out; only 1 winner from 22 runners in last fortnight. Refused once when out on his feat in Midlands Grand National. Is 5lbs out of the weights if top weight Neptune Collonges runs.
My 100% Book:
Great Endeavour 5/1, Wayward Prince 7/1,
Wymott 17/2, Aiteen Thirtythree 9/1, Michel Le Bon 12/1, Sarando 14/1, Beshabar 16/1, Planet Of Sound 22/1, Carruthers 22/1, Joncol 25/1,
Tullamore Dew 25/1,
The Giant Bolster 33/1, Muirhead 40/1, Blazing Bailey 50/1, Billie Magern 66/1, Neptunes Collonges 80/1, Qhilimar 80/1, Fair Along 100/1, Balthazar King 100/1.
Value Is EverythingJoncol would have been my selection but the vibes aren’t good and confidence seems low.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to work out Paul Nichols has laid out 1833 for this.
He ran him in a 2m4f race he couldn’t possibly win for the first time since Oct 2009.You can bet your life he was well short of peak fitness.
An out and out stayer the cobwebs have been dealt with and all Ruby has to do now is point him in the right direction and if he’s as good as they say he’ll win.
Not that PN has done anything wrong and he’s made no secret of the fact this is his race.
Great Endevour goes here of the back of a good win in the Paddy Power but it must be touch and go if he sees out the trip. He was still in touch when falling 2 out at Cheltenham behind Carols’s Legacy. He looked like being swallowed up at the top of the hill but had the inside berth which allowed him to stay on terms. The way he carries himself and keeps trying makes it difficult to know if he was tiring/running out of stamina or not.
However the actual fall looked suspiciously like that of a tired horse. He jumped it well enough but his legs just caved in on landing.
Beshabar looks interesting but with Neptune Collonges and 1833 likely to be up there things might happen a bit to quickly for him but he’s sure to be plugging on when others have cried enough.
The horse most likely to benefit from a strong pace if they go too fast is Wayward Prince. Ridden just off the pace he stays forever and has a touch of class.
When they both ran in the RSA it would be fair to say Wayward Prince was better prepared having already won 4 competitive chases whereas 1833 had 2 schooling sessions and was then thrown in at the deep end.
Ruby chose not to ride him in the RSA he was easy to back and no doubt PN put him in the race with the attitude that the experience would do him no harm.
No denying Somersby beat 1833 very easily but it served a purpose. The purpose being to get him 100% fit for this. The fact he could stay with Somerby speaks volumes about his undoubted class.
He may not be as short, as Ginger suggests if it wasn’t for PN’s words but I can see why he is getting a bit carried away with him.
At the weights I think he can win this by a country mile with the rest nowhere.
1833
Danger: Can’t see one
Best ew Wayward Prince.
- Total Posts 17716
For my money, both Aiteen Thirtythree and Wayward Prince will struggle to keep up unless Newbury becomes a bog.
If it doesn’t, I’d expect Great Endeavour to have far too much speed for both of them.I hope Wayward Prince will "struggle to keep up" early on Reet. In a strange way, the faster they go, the better for him. Because then it is probable stamina will come in to play much more in the latter stages. With ten horses who like to/need to lead/race prominently, it looks likely to be strongly run (test of stamina) contest, which will suit Wayward Prince. This is the furthest he’s tackled, so I expect a lifetime best. Whether that is good enough, we shall see.
It wouldn’t be a worry if Great Endeavour were too quick for them.
But must admit I am a little worried there’ll be too much pace, forcing him to go off too fast early on. Don’t really like horses changing their style of racing, I hear they’re going to hold Great Endeavour up. Hope if they do he’ll be taken around the outer to prevent being crowded. There must surely be a reason for Murphy rushing him around most of the field in an already strongly run race at the Festival last March. Does he need to be prominent?With Carruthers, Fair Along, Balthazar King, Neptune Collonges all arguably need to lead to produce their best these days. Aiteen Thirtythree, Great Endeavour, Beshabar, Michel Le Bon, and even Sarando and Billie Magern who like to be up there disputing it or with an unhindered view of the front (one of the arrowhead) it’s possibly going to suit a hold up horse. Spoke to Paul Webber yesterday who said Sarando can sulk if unable to race fairly handily. Even with good ground I think it will be a fair stamina test, so Wayward Prince fits the bill more than most.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Good race-reading that Ginger – considering they aren’t declared until tomorrow.
Granny > eggs > suck = tripe.
Good race-reading that Ginger – considering they aren’t declared until tomorrow.
Granny > eggs > suck = tripe.If there are 10 prominent runners in the line up Reet, even if one or two of them come out at final decs stage, there’s still going to be loads of pace horses. So the make up of the race is hardly going to change.
It is possible to work out a race before final decs Reet, particularly one you don’t envisage many changes.
You’ve found something to criticise Reet, well done
. If that’s the best you can do I must’ve done a good job. Reasons why I’ve done the analysis early are I went to a Hennessy Preview night yesterday and am going to Newbury all three days. So won’t have much time on my hands later in the week.
My main bet is the same as your selection Reet, it must be "tripe".
Value Is EverythingThought it was a good write up personally.
I’ve just thrown a few quid each way on The Giant Bolster in the (misplaced) hope that the longer trip should improve the chance of him actually jumping a fence. There’s a serious engine in there somewhere, and with a bit(lot) of luck, Saturday could be the day.
At 20/1, I’m willing to take the risk.
Good Luck.
For my money, both Aiteen Thirtythree and Wayward Prince will struggle to keep up unless Newbury becomes a bog.
If it doesn’t, I’d expect Great Endeavour to have far too much speed for both of them.Irrespective of ground it very seldom doesn’t end up a slog for all concerned bar the winner it being 3m2f on a course that lends itself to a strong gallop.
I could understand your logic if the two concerned din’t go on the likely good-soft ground but both have won their races on nothing else.
Wayward Price got behind from the 12th at Cheltenham which is unusual for him but whether that was down to the pace or the mistake he made at the 9th winded him is hard to say. It may well have been a one-off with him as normally he likes to be right up there. I would ignore his Aintree run as way too many run flat there after Cheltenham and he had one really hard race at the Festival.
As far as 1833 not keeping up with them. that made me giggle, I think it may well be the other way round.
He was fast enough to make Somersby go over a trip way too short for him. A race that was at an average of 20 seconds faster than the following chase. They may have looked to be going slow but clearly they were not. Add to that the fact he probably wasn’t anywhere near fit and I’d say he shouldn’t have too many problems on that score.
He could be the snip of the year this horse and he could easily flop but I doubt if speed will be an issue.
The main worry is inexperience of jumping in a large field. He is still a virtual novice but with luck he may not see many other horses if Ruby decides to be up in the firing line from the word go.
I’d worry more about Great Endevour if this turns out to be a really strong gallop. 4lbs doesn’t seem a big rise but round here for a horse who’s may not stay and is not the biggest animal it could feel like a ton on his back by the time they get to the home straight.
Have I got you worried yet?
Interesting the negative comment about Grands Crus running in the Gold Cup but nothing about Michel Le Bon running in one of the most competitive handicaps on only his second chase start. Add to that been off for ages and only minimal experience over hurdles. Presumably he would be about 100/1 in Steeplechasing’s book?
What’s more interesting is Noel Fehily is booked to ride. He’s also booked to ride 2 at Bangor and 2 a Towester which would indicate PN hasn’t decided if Michel Le Bon goes or not.
Layed Muirhead at 33’s. That price is ridiculously big. Too good to resist.
Can’t take Aiteen Thirtythree at those odds. I just don’t think he’s good enough to win a race like a Hennessy. He’ll make a good handicapper and i think he could win a National one day, but i just think the Hennessy is out of the horses class reach.
Michel Le Bon and Wymott are both tempting. Fehily is probably my favourite jockey and so am only more tempted.
Great Endeavor is another i’ll have my money on. I have no doubt that he’ll stay, especially an easy 3, 2 like Newbury, a nice, flat rhythm track.
- Total Posts 17716
HGM
Any horse that stays 3.2m over hurdles around Cheltenham (Great Endeavour) will stay the Hennessy standing on its head.
Wayward Prince got outpaced, not only in his last 2 races, but also his previous run at Cheltenham when a fortuitous winner, and though he got up in the shadow of the post in his Aintree hurdle race run at a searing pace, he was too knackered to make it into the winners enclosure.
Likewise Aiteen Thirtythree, who also only got up in the shadow of the post over 3.2m of the Cheltenham hurdle course, and was left for dead in a good ground Sun Alliance.
You praying for rain yet?ps. I could have finished 2nd to Somersby – the horse did just what it had to, to win it.
Ian Williams is VERY bullish about Wayward Prince’s chances. He isn’t at all worried about him ‘keeping up’.
They normally don’t hang around in this race and that is the key to
Wayward Prince
. There was a lot to like about his performances last season and he’s been the subject of some seriously positive reports.
It’s a far from vintage renewal and I expect this big horse to have progressed and make the necessary improvement to run a huge race.
Planet Of Sound
is the class horse in the field and boasts a solid track record from the early stages of his career. He impressed Paul Nicholls enough for him to suggest the horse a serious challenger to Kauto Star at the start of last season.
Still very much unexposed beyond three miles, he will surely be fit enough to do himself justice on his first run since January. Ran with much credit on seasonal bow last season when third in the Betfair Chase behind Imperial Commander and Tidal Bay.
But must admit I am a little worried there’ll be too much pace, forcing him to go off too fast early on. Don’t really like horses changing their style of racing, I hear they’re going to hold Great Endeavour up. Hope if they do he’ll be taken around the outer to prevent being crowded. There must surely be a reason for Murphy rushing him around most of the field in an already strongly run race at the Festival last March. Does he need to be prominent?
. If that’s the best you can do I must’ve done a good job. 
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