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This race sooooooooo depends on if Hurricane Fly is there, and if he is, how fit will he be? If he’s within 10% of his best, he wins beautifully again.
Zarkandar is the only horse who has the talent to oppose such a talent, and even he will come up a couple of lengths short in my opinion.
There is a lot of hype about Grandoeut, unjustified in my opinion. He is such a talented horse, just one that doesn’t cut the mustard for me. I know that HurdyGurdyMan will be straight on my case for this, and I have no real evidence to back myself up as I don’t see his so-called ‘jumping limities’ as a problem. I just think he won’t be able to crack it in the best of a very good bunch of talented 2 milers.
What comes next makes me think. Grandoeut will be running to try and win, which, for me, he simply won’t be able to do against at least 2 faster, better horses.
Making places in Champion Hurdles generally pulls out a scrapper, one who keeps finding and I personally think the one to pick could well be one who runs his own race, and grabs a spot from nowhere. Brampour is such a big e/w shout, screams value. 25/1 right now may make people think right now that he clearly isn’t the best horse in the race, why back him? The ‘best’ horses in this race probably won’t place, as they won’t keep the pace with the best, but if you watch Brampour in his last few races, he will stay and stay and stay.
Hurricane to win if he’s there, with the very talented Zarkandar either taking his place if he isn’t or following him if he is, and Brampour following.
At the start of the season I was fully aware of the New Year – Triumph winner stat. However, I saw Hinterland as an exception. I still see him as a fantastic prospect, and in a couple of years from now, he WILL be a multiple grade 1 chase winner.
Right now though, I have my Friday ticket for the festival, and I’m still waiting for the Triumph Hurdle winner to appear…………
I posted on the Long Walk page about Dynaste the other day. I’m not being funny, but I’m shocked(but also pleasantly surprised!) about how much he went out after Saturday.
When I posted, I blamed poor Connor O’Farrell, but the resounding defeat clearly wasn’t his fault. Dynaste was obviously the second best horse in the race and went toe to toe with the mighty Big Buck’s until about 2 furlongs out. Connor set the pace trying to beat BB the only way he thought(and was told) he could, which he found out later, just could not happen.
However, if this horse runs its own race, not trying to beat the unbeatable, he is clearly the second best in the 3 mile division right now. That is, unless Thousand Stars shows up. For me, Oscar Whisky just won’t do at this trip, and would be much better either waiting for Aintree or a fictional 2 mile 4 furlong grade 1 at the festival.
Dynaste is now(for some reason) 25/1, and will probably win the Cleeve Hurdle next year. Now is the chance to get on each way!
I made a terribly inebriated post the other day, and reading it the next day, I felt awfully ashamed! Beer and a laptop don’t mix!
Captain Chris ain’t no banker, I don’t even necessarily fancy him for the win. If my money was going on the race, it’d either be Long Run for the win, or the Captain e/w. I honestly can’t see any of the others getting involved in the first two.
To conclude, Long Run should win if he jumps every fence okay. Yogi’s been there and schooled him like last year and he is the best horse in the race.
There is the whole Captain Chris thing niggling away though, fly in the ointment and all that…………….
Tell you what, I’d be a lot happier backing Dynaste e/w for the World Hurdle after today. Connor O’Farrell raced far too keenly in my eyes and set the race up for Big Buck’s, though in all honesty he would never have won against the master. Given a more steady pace I reckon he’d be sneak a place and the ante-post 25/1 looks good now. He travelled really well today although emptying late on after the furious pace he’d been sent off at.
If Captain Chris doesn’t place I will parade around Kempton’s twilight sandpit in a Borat mankini!!
Sorry, just re-read that and realised how much of a conman it made me seem
shall we agree to a gentleman’s agreement?not being funny but how can it be a "banker" when he’s never run over this trip before
Granted, the logistics aren’t all there, but would you like to exchange bank details over a wager?
That last post by ‘anonymous’ (sigh) is highly frustrating, and makes this renewal seem Mickey Mouse. If you highly unfancy Kauto and Master Minded this greatly, how will they place in a good race such as this?
I don’t personally think Kauto Star will win, and whether he’ll run a good race is debatable. It has been mentioned several times that Nicholls said the Betfair was his Gold Cup, and as a 12 year old that was trained especially for the race, how well will he be on Boxing Day?
I’m not having Master Minded at all for this race. HGM has raised a brilliant issue with him in that he doesn’t find anything under pressure, and anyone whom believes he’ll cruise round 3 miles on the bridle is quite frankly pissing into the wind.
Long Run was always going to need the Haydock run to gain some sort of fitness, and the fact he ran in a strong field, not at his best by some way and finished 2nd was a credit to him. He absolutely adores Kempton as we’ve already seen and we will see him back to his best here.
The only problem fly in the ointment for me is Captain Chris, who also loves Kempton, and despite what some have stated before on the topic of this race, DOES possess plenty of class and more than enough to win this. He made light work of 2 and a half miles round here(granted it was an egg and spoon race), but from what I’ve seen I see no reason why he can’t stay the trip.
Somersby is one many have mentioned but is a horse who unfortunately seems to be on a downward curve as Henrietta Knight just can’t seem to decide what to do with the horse. It just seems she’s sent him here a year too late.
I truly can’t make my mind up between Long Run and Captain Chris, but as a value seeker it has to be Captain Chris e/w. Sorry if I’ve over-posted about about this but I cannot stress how strongly I feel about this. Captain Chris e/w is the banker of the National Hunt season so far!HGM, Mr Hobbs has already had a rough enough first half of the season with Fingal Bay the only silver lining on an otherwise big black cloud. I can’t see how Captain Chris would have the wasted and potentially harmful run unless in tip top condition. He had a near enough full race in the Haldon, and if he lines up on Boxing Day, I’d imagine he would be fully fit, as he was only suffering from the human equivalent of a cold apparently. I wouldn’t back ante-post, but if he’s there, not only will his price be longer, but he could well be the spanner in the works.
Dusty, I heard Dynaste was staying over hurdles, and for me will definitely be the first in line to be staring at the back of him in March. Easy forecast for Saturday
Has anyone got any recent updates on Captain Chris’s fitness? I think if he lines up on the day he could seriously be the one to upset the apple cart. I predict a place at least and if he’s there on the day, with Long Run and Kauto probably being backed to the nines, he could well go off at double figure odds, massive value
I still feel a great amount for the horse, and Saturday’s effort cannot take away from his jumping. One thing that did bother was how obviously one paced he was up the straight. I forgave him this in his first race at the Open meeting but to see it again is worrying. Granted I’m sure we haven’t seen the 2012 Triumph winner yet, but I still think Hinterland will have a great future chasing. He is after all, only 3…………
I was at Cheltenham for the Paddy Power meeting, and couldn’t have been more impressed with Hinterland in the Triumph Trial on the Saturday. Ok, he may not have won by 20-30 lengths like Sam Winner like last year, but that may have done us a favour with his price. He travelled like an absolute dream throughout, and went over the hurdles like they weren’t there. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a 3 year old jump as well as him before. He is a very scopey character and Paul Nicholls has already said he’ll make a smashing chaser some day. The form from the race has turned out well with the two who finished behind him that day going on to turn in convincing wins in their follow up runs. He will be out again at Cheltenham on Saturday in the first and I for one will be watching intently(granted it’ll probably be at odds-on!).
The 10/1 with Hills ante-post may not seem that appealing to some, but I truly believe that this could be a serious horse some day.
Looking at this I’d say Quantitativeeasing is certainly a very worthy favourite, and will take all the beating. Has most going in his favour including recent race trends and a tidy handicap mark. Should be better for this than he was in the Paddy Power, which is something in itself.
Medermit and Sunnyhillboy as rock solid e/w value, Medermit in particular fitting a fascinating number of trends…….
shall we agree to a gentleman’s agreement?
