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Like Sunnyhillboy for this. Was beaten by 1.25L by Great Endeavour over this trip at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival. Hasn’t had much racing – and very little luck – since then. Is now 14lb better off with the winner. I am sure he has one of these big handicaps in him. Had a nice prep over hurdles recently. Trip, course and going will be fine.
The two I like are
Quantitative Easing
and
Roudoudou Ville.
Former ran very well in the Paddy Power to be second and I expect improvement. Despite coming from the biggest betting owner there is in JP, he was allowed to go off at 20/1. You can take from that he wasn’t thought fit enough. Goes well over this course, also placed behind Divers at the Festival before failing to stay in Irish National. Fairyhouse seemed to prove his owner-mate
Sunninghill Boy
(3rd) is better over further and probably doesn’t jump well enough to win at this trip anyway. Quantitative Easing’s old rival
Divers
is a danger and is 3 lbs better off for a 3 1/2 length beating last time. However, I believe the younger horse has the more improvement in him and 7/1 looks worth taking.
I’ve backedGreat Endeavour
the last twice and he isn’t one to ignore. Would probably have been at least second had he stayed the trip at Newbury. 9 lbs worse off with Quantitative Easing for his 7 length win in Paddy Power. Yet could still improve further back at his favourite course and distance. Trouble is he’s already had two hard races in the last month. I may well come back and have a saver on him.
I believeGhizao
has the ability to win a race of this quality off a mark of 154. After all, I’ve backed him for the Champion Chase. But very disappointing on reappearance. Despite being strongly fancied to win, didn’t jump or travel with his usual fluentcy. Fact he travells well at two miles and can take a pull, makes Ghizao a doubtful stayer in my book. Although on the whole a good jumper, can still hit one.
Irish challengerQuel Esprit
was an even worse jumper last year. Didn’t do anything wrong to win on reappearance, but seemed deliberately kept wide for a clear view of his fences in a small field. This will be a more severe test, but has undoubted potential for his very much in form trainer.
Haventgotascoobiedoo
is still a novice and improving fast. So can’t be ruled out despite being 3 lbs out of the handicap with Woolcombe Folly as top weight. Has some jumping question marks himself. Good second to Tanks For that at 2 miles on this course last time. Staying on, winner at this trip, should be at least equally effective at it.
Medermit
is a horse I can never get right. Backed him for the Arkle and disappointed. Didn’t at Exeter and scooted up. That didn’t take as much winning as it looked on paper with Captain Chris falling and Ghizao not firing. Seemed exposed in Amlin behind Master Minded.
Roudoudou Ville
is only six years old and improving at pace for a stable doing far better this year (although no winner in last couple of weeks, plenty of runners-up). Won at Sandown last time, fairly easily despite jumping left and Cheltenham should suit better. Hasn’t run at Cheltenham but winner at Chepstow, so an undulating course shouldn’t trouble him. Jumping is always a concern for an inexperienced chaser in a race like this, but 16/1 looks big enough to be worth finding out.
Value Is EverythingVery happy that they are watering at Cheltenham, means the ground should be just perfect for Divers. Hopefully Ferdy will have him primed for a good run and Graham Lee will sneak around the inside and come late. That sounds easy
Will the plan work Personally, still at 20s, I would not consider all value to have gone from Tatenen at all, though I was unaware of Mark Winstanley’s tipping it. I would consider 10s to be acceptable, as I would not wish to bet against it other than on Ghizao and Quantitative Easing, which latter I have not yet bet on.
I prefer to bet on a few or a number of horses in a big field, rather than each way on one or two. It won’t always happen of course, but if Carruthers hadn’t won the Hennesy, I would have got most of my aggregate stake back on the race, and made a nice bit if
Fair Along had. As it was, I had several bets on, so forfeited a quarter of my gross winnngs on Carruthers. If Planet of Sound had won, I wouldn’t have got my outlay back by a long chalk, since I weighted my bet on Carruthers; just something.Tatenan has a squeak on form Grimes. But in my opinion is so inconsistent and possibly best kept wide/racing prominently, away from other runners. Difficult to do that at Chelters, although there isn’t that many front runners in the race compared to most big handicaps. Got a feeling he might be best right-handed these days too.
Not saying Tatenan won’t win, but I’d rather take Roudoudou Ville at 16/1 as value than 20’s Tatenan.
Value Is EverythingI’m not so sure Ghizao was fancied first time out Ginger. He looked to have a good chance on paper, the bookies never give away much when PN is the trainer and the weight of public money would keep him short.
He ran like a horse badly in need of the run and came under pressure too far from home to be thinking he was anywhere near peak fitness.
Either that or he’s useless which I doubt.
Is it strange to think Woolcombe Folly is ew value at 25s?
Looked very rusty last time out when running behind Gauvain at Cheltenham, Ryan Mahon takes a useful 3lb, and he should come on for the last run no end. 25s across the board.
gonna stick with medermit(again)yes he was found wantig last time,but that was a grade one.fancied him for the arkle,but he found it all a bit too quick,he’s a decent ew price.and has course form
Looking at this I’d say Quantitativeeasing is certainly a very worthy favourite, and will take all the beating. Has most going in his favour including recent race trends and a tidy handicap mark. Should be better for this than he was in the Paddy Power, which is something in itself.
Medermit and Sunnyhillboy as rock solid e/w value, Medermit in particular fitting a fascinating number of trends…….
To me JJM, both Ghizao and Woolcombe Folly ran as though something amiss last time, I backed both! (As Kingfisher says, I back every horse
). Nicholls seems to be running his top weights this season purely to keep the weights down for his first and second strings. Poquelin, Neptune Collonges etc. Horses like Havntgotascoobydo and Salut Flo would be amongst the favs without Woolcombe Folly keeping the weights down. WF would have an each way chance on the form with Tanks For That. But ran so poorly last time, looking as if didn’t want to do it and increasingly temperamental.I’d like to think Ghizao wasn’t fit H, having backed him for the Festival, he just didn’t jump and had no confidence to attack his fences. May be they’ve done a lot of work on that side of things and he’ll be AOK on Saturday. Think around 8/1 is too short to take that chance myself. Thought by his trainer to be a good outsider for the Champion Chase at the beginning of the season. So if Ghizao was showing good things at home, wouldn’t they be targeting him at 2 mile events?
Value Is EverythingMy personal view on handicaps is that they are far too black and white. It’s no surprise that every time Woolcombe Folly has raced at the top level, he’s spectacularly failed. Possibly able to excuse his Arkle run because there was an incident with Sam Thomas at Ditcheat, but he made no impact whatsoever in the Champion Chase last year and just looked outclassed. He won his handicap impressively but a handicap is a million miles away from a top race, and it wasn’t the most inspiring field in the world. He’s definitely never warranted being a 169 chaser, no matter how far he beat horse X in handicap Z. It’s not as simple as that, Poqulein is another great example. He just seemed outclassed lto. It probably wasn’t his absolute true running, but he bumped into a proven graded performer who’s best fresh.
Onto the race, I think Great Endeavour would stand a great chance of defying his weight rise if he’s recovered well. It’s a tough ask for any horse, but I think he’ll feature in grade one races for the rest of the year.
Ghizao improved massively from his first run last season upwards of a stone so no reason to think he can’t go and do the same, stable and jockey (Ruby once described him as the next Well Chief) have rated this horse as one of their best right from the off, if he improves and jumps then he could be upwards of 10lbs well in – look at his form with Captain Chris last year when giving weight and a thumping beating, CC is now rated 164 and Ghizao races off 154 here. Ruby has been booked for the ride for the past 10 days, Andy Stewart has put a £250 charity bet on Ghizao just the other day so no way this isn’t the number one horse for connections.
Like most of Mullins entries in top British handicaps IC, Quel Esprit has been taken out.
Value Is EverythingShould be a handy winners of two for him somewhere over the next month for around 15 grand. Think he’s being primed for the Hennessy at Leopardstown so was surprised to see him in the betting for this given the plan was to bring him along slowly.
Is AP’s "decision" to ride Sunnyhillboy more about maximising JP’s chance of winning, than AP riding the one with the "best" chance?
Quantitative Easing usually jumps well and is a straight-foreward type, that needs little knowing.
Sunnyhillboy often jumps poorly, is a bit quirky and can get behind.
AP has been onboard for his last four wins.If AP were riding the Henderson horse, it would not make much difference to Quantitative Easing’s chance. Where as it probably makes more of a difference for Sunnyhillboy.
I once asked AP if he’d ever ride the one with a lesser chance of winning, if it added to the team’s chance?
He insisted not.
I wonder.
Value Is Everythinggreat endeavour the stand out bet in this lads. would have won last time over shorter and a real good horse over this distance. got its ideal trip and ground and will be very hard to beat. the rest are a much of a muchness. quantitive easing he really slammed first time up and can’t see any reason why he shouldn’t do so again.
basically as someone pointed out he’ll be running in grade one races in future, I see him as a good bet for the ryanair for example.
Will the plan work 
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