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AP’s been rather vocal saying that he wants 300 winners this year, Ginge, so I think that says it all.
Does Quel Esprit run in this?
He’s absolutely thrown in on off his current mark.
Thanks for the tip.
Good win for Gauvain, further enhancing the claims of Woolcombe Folly in the December Gold Cup.
Speaking of folly, is it wrong to think Quantitativeeasing will become a more backable price with AP on Sunnyhillboy.
Interesting money for Medermit today.
Quantitative Easing now out to 8/1 JJM. I’ve backed him at 7’s before it was known AP chose Sunny. Might go in again if it gets any bigger. He’s favourite in my book. Would not be surprised to see it being Pricewise tomorrow.
Henderson is in cracking form too.
Value Is EverythingThis is copied from my blog – apologies if it seems over-simplistic to you guys
The Mackeson Gold Cup
and the Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup will be remembered by us old-timers as two highly anticipated Cheltenham handicap Chases back in the 60s and 70s. They’re now known as The Paddy Power Gold Cup and The Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup.
David Pipe won the Paddy Power with
Great Endeavour
who is one of his four runners in tomorrow’s Gold Cup. The biggest priced of those, Matuhi, is, I think the best value at 25/1 for an EW punt. Betfair’s win price will almost certainly be bigger than that unless Pricewise tips him.
Matuhi
is an experienced ‘chaser with three wins a 2nd and three 3rds from 13 races over fences. The 8-y-o is a competent jumper who races enthusiastically and has a dose of tactical speed that could stand him in good stead tomorrow. He’s also a bit better than his form figures suggest which has, I think contributed to his big price. He was 6th over this trip at the Festival in March after being hampered by a faller four out – I don’t think that made a lot of difference but it knocked him off balance for a few strides when he was just trying to get into the race proper.
He dropped to Class 2 next time and won nicely enough at Haydock and after three months’ rest travelled over for the £100,000 Galway Plate where he was brought down at the last when only about two lengths off the leader and still very much in contention despite what the formbook says (“no extra in 6th”). Stable jockey Tom Scudamore rides though perhaps not too much should be read into this as
Great Endeavour
, owned by David Johnson, is Timmy Murphy’s ride.
Tom hasn’t ridden the horse in public for a year but has won on him before. If he could choose a track for this race, he’d probably opt for Newbury or Haydock rather than Cheltenham as the horse might be just a bit short on stamina. But I think his price compensates for that and with just 10.3 to carry I think the risk is worth it. For Betfair players, the horse normally travels well and a back to lay could be an option.
The one I fear most is
Quantititaveeasing
. Ap McCoy has rejected this horse in favour of Sunnyhillboy but Barry Geraghty is a fine sub; the horse is game and consistent with plenty track experience – 2nd at the Festival and in the Paddy Power. He almost certainly has improvement in him and with 10.7 a saver bet is strongly recommended.
I like
Divers
too but think he needs further to be seen at his best, even though he’s won over course and distance.
Of the others, I believe
Woolcombe Folly
has had his season in the sun:
Great Endeavour
has gone up in the weights, makes the odd blunder and, I suspect hasn’t the heart for a battle:
Medermit
doesn’t jump well enough:
Sunnyhillboy
is too short a price given he’s been beaten in all four chases he’s run in at Cheltenham (he’s won just once in two years). If the well touted
Roudoudou Ville
were to have a strong chance here, he really should have won the Class2 he ran in at Perth (2nd). Also, although he’s a fine jumper, at Sandown he got very low at a number of fences, as quite a few French-schooled horses tend to do.
Good luck
Changed days old son, can’t be many tractor drivers drinking Mackeson these day. I hate these name changes. It’s such a pity they never bought the name rights and the races were still called eg The Mackeson Gold Cup sponsored by Paddy Power.
Doesn’t change the fact they are two very good races and very hard to win.
The gamble on Sunninghill Boy comes as no surprise he’s class act on his day despite the unexplainable flop at the festival when he was backed off the boards to win the County Hurdle. Probably was noi where near ready when he was seen running on late in his last run at Haydock.
They pulled of a huge touch with him way back at Sandown but he’s no certainty in this class though. Even when he’s right he has his limits and I doubt if there’s quite as much confidence behind him as the market suggests.
I’ll stick with Ghizao and hope his jumping has improved.
Medermit looks a good bet, he’s an improving horse, he did well in the Haldon, and he’s good over this trip.
I’m also thinking the price for Great Endeavour is too big. If he’s recovered from the Paddy Power and the Hennessy, then it’s ridiculously big. We shall see.
Anyway, those are my two against the field, with a cheeky Reverse Forecast thrown in for good measure.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I took 14s on
Medermit
this week and will have a few quid on
Ghizao
at the price.
Both have a touch of ‘graded’ class, and few in this contest can boast such claims.
Medermit defeated Captain Chris over this trip in the Scilly Isles last season, and Ghizao got the better of that rival on two occasions last term.
Granted, Captain Chris developed into a very smart performer in the spring and has progressed into a superior horse than the aforementioned duo, but Medermit is still relatively unexposed at this trip and has been running well against top class rivals over shorter distances.
Ghizao has to prove his stamina, but generally performs with credit at Prestbury Park and he could easily improve for the step up.
——————————————————————
Calgary Bay
declared a non-runner at Doncaster. I assume he’s going to run at Cheltenham and, if so, he has to a carry a bit of sentimental cash.
Isn’t that right, Gord?
Calgary Bay
declared a non-runner at Doncaster. I assume he’s going to run at Cheltenham and, if so, he has to a carry a bit of sentimental cash.
Isn’t that right, Gord?
Bosranic
posts on ‘Big race discussions’ and i bet myself a pound to a penny he’s done
Calgary Bay
in todays big race!
Shock,gosh ,horror,no mention of him……….until i spot this at the bottom of his post.What are we like Bos? We know damn well whats going to happen and thats if he’s on an ‘interested’ day.If so he could just about scrape 4th place and thats after flattering to decieve,i was hoping he’d go to Doncaster personally as at the 8/1 offered,i fancied him quite strongly to repeat last years victory up there.At 33/1 i had to have an interest too Bos,4 places and that,i agree aboutMedermit
, a Grade 1 winner in a handicap,i didn’t think he’d run myself.!
I’m onGhizao
at 10/1 e/w and am more hopeful than confident,i’ll take a place now.No i’m afraid the horse that jumps off the page this morning is
Sunnyhill Boy
,J,Jo,O’Neil is a master at laying one out,he’ll stay all the way and he’s thrown in against Great Endeavour on course form,even 6/1 now looks like Xmas.AP may have to get hard on him though!
Nice work, bozlike, getting the first two in that order – and with some confidence.
With hindsight, and with the last three winners all carrying more than 11 stone and Medermit’s being a Grade 1 winner, I should have bet on it. And as if that wasn’t enough, Gary Nutting tipped it.
Glad I didn’t, but that’s taking the short-term view isn’t it?Great stuff, That Medermit would break your heart though. He always comes under pressure, he always finds but almost always finds one or two too good for him. Very frustrating for anyone who backed him.
Fast becoming one of my favourite horses. Tends to slip under the radar a bit and will probably always start at a slightly bigger price than he deserves
. Hope he doesn’t become a ‘bridesmaid’ horse.
Great stuff, That Medermit would break your heart though. He always comes under pressure, he always finds but almost always finds one or two too good for him. Very frustrating for anyone who backed him.
Today he broke my heart he did i backed him at 10/1 to win i don’t do this ew caper.Was gutted
The whole Sunnyhillboy affair was strange. So strongly backed, the choice of McCoy and…tailed off.
Perhaps the explanation is that Sunnyhillboy will be AP’s Grand National horse and he just wanted a ride on the horse. Missing a winner for that doesn’t sound much like McCoy though!
Tatenen
was quite eyecatching for me. I thought he was travelling best on the turn for home, but he just flattened out on his first run of the season. I’ll be interested in him next time he runs.
Well done JJM, Ginger and Bozlike (and a small self-congrat for making him my saver).
Might be a fair bit more to come from the winner, esp over farther. Slower early pace in longer races would help him reduce/eliminate errors and he was finishing so strongly today, he passed the post looking to have quite a bit in hand.
Couldn’t understand the mountain of money bringing Sunnyhillboy down to 7/2. Already beaten in 4 h’cap chases here and won just once in two years: crazy. Reportedly pulled up with an irregular heartbeat.
I’m on
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