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<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Still a shocker but at least there were some clues there along the way and she was running in her 4th consecutive Group 1, compared to Time Test, who was handicap and group 3 the previous two races.Is there any actual form line that you do not like Steve?
If Time Test was so badly over-rated then please explain the Ascot time? Or was every other Royal Ascot race slowly run?Sometimes a horse puts up a Group 1 performance in a Group 3.
If it is wrong to rate a horse so highly just because it has not won in the grade, then it must have been wrong for Timeform to have said of Golden Horn after debut Nottingham Maiden win (amongst other superlatives) “Group horse in the making”.
I’ve always been of the view that the time of the race, and more specifically, the sectional times are of paramount importance in understanding the way in which a race has been run and by extension, the relative performances of the horses in the race.
That being said, as somebody who will always use his stopwatch [both on the flat & over jumps] to break-down a race, I can categorically say that the clock (when used as a comparative tool) does not always tell the whole, or even the accurate, story.
The issue in what you (and Timeform who gave him a ludicrous 130 rating) are saying is that it not only is incompatible with the formbook but that it outright contradicts the form book.
If Time Test was so badly over-rated then please explain the Ascot time? Or was every other Royal Ascot race slowly run?
If you were to take that Time Test is a Group 1 animal (or a 125-130 rated animal) then you would also have to argue that Peacock and Mustadeem (who both raced in less advantageous positions than Time Test that day yet were only 3-4 lengths behind him) were 115-120 horses themselves; something which they patently are not.
Indeed, having re-timed the race, you would have to said on a literal basis that both Peacock and Mustadeem were better horses than The Grey Gatsby & Free Eagle going on the clock!
Hi guys, long time no post.
I too would agree that Golden Horn’s form is much the best in the race. Elm Park and Jack Hobbs are two 110+ good yardsticks, they went a strong pace in the Dante & the final time reflected that. I would say a mark in the late of 117-120 is perfectly fair and possibly even underrates him.
The only horse who really has the potential, at least based on the form book, to overhaul Golden Horn is Dermot Weld’s Zawraq. I wasn’t taken with this horse on debut and actually layed him next time out in April. That being said you can’t really take away the quality of that performance. The pace was a slow one, but he settled beautifully and quickened right away easily. The quality of that form wasn’t electric (2nd and 3rd looked to be 100 or so horses) but the way in which he did it suggests that ran to around 110-114.
The worry clearly is over whether he stays. His strength in April looked to be his change of gear and he certainly wasn’t lengthening at the finish. That notwithstanding, he presumably wasn’t fully wound up that day and may have just got tired late on. I’m prepared to trust Dermot Weld on this one though; he’s a canny guy, and knows his horse better than anyone. Add to that how that the horse settles well and I think you can make the case. Even so though, it may not be enough.
Going back to Golden Horn though, my worry (and the question I want to pose) is this. Although the race at York was well-run and he was going further clear at the line, he was actually quite keen early on and took quite a grip, which would concern me going up in trip at Epsom. Yes they normally go a strong gallop, but they did at York too over shorter and he was still quite keen. I think he may pull too hard at Epsom and it’s a long way home up the straight if that happens. If you fancy GH, does that worry you? It certainly put me off him slightly and I’ve got a funny feeling we might be seeing him back down at 10 furlongs or even a mile for the remainder of his career, regardless of the result at Epsom.
Don’t post often, but for what it’s worth…
Kauto Star was the classier, superior horse. Denman was a tank – the sort of horse who would gallop all day and all night long.
Kauto Star should have won the QMC in his younger days and if I’m being honest, I still privately think that 2miles-20 furlongs was his best distance. Denman would never have got close in that race. Kauto Star was never the sort of horse who was suited to 27 furlongs around one of the toughest courses in the country. It was the bucket-load of class which he had, which saw them lift the crown. Denman relished the Gold Cup trip – it played to his strengths.
Had they ever met over 3 miles or less at their peaks, Kauto Star would have run Denman into the ground. Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh knew that.
Denman is one of my favourite horses – I love grittiness and strength, but Kauto Star was an exceptional horse who had to go beyond his best trip to prove that. He will always be the superior of the two.
‘Let me introduce myself, my name is Arthur Slugworth. Now listen carefully, because I’m going to make you very rich. Mr Wonka has been working on a new invention – the everlasting gobstopper. If he succeeds, he’ll ruin me. All I want you to do is to get hold of one everlasting gobstopper and bring it to me!’
I’ll be lumping on either
A). Frankel to win
B). Excelebration to PlaceDepending on which is a higher price.
I’ve timed SS from the last as well and I’ll do the same for Sizing Europe tomorrow. I’m pretty certain that SE will be around a second quicker when he cruises up to win tomorrow.
Anyone spotted Zarkava tucking into some humble pie anywhere?
I ate it after the Game Spirit, JJM. You should be able to find my comments. If I mentioned the bet I’ve got for the Queen Mum next season I’ll be accused of after-timing, so I’ll let Hurdy tell you all for me as I messaged him about it before the Game Spirit.
Well done to you as well, JJM. You may not have been talking him up quite so much as Hurdy but you were still a vocal supporter.
Would still love to see something get him off the bridle just to see what’s actually there.
I do genuinely think that was his least impressive performance & I really think Al Ferof would’ve given him something to think about. Wouldn’t have won, that’s for sure, but might have given Geraghty something to think about.
Agreed. I was shouting my head off at the last willing him up the hill. I don’t think he found as much as people suspect he did coming up that hill and I certainly wouldn’t back him again odds-on at the Festival.
Happy days.
Backed this @ 2/1 and topped up in the run up to the festival. Absolute monster of a horse. Unfortunate thing was I put all my winnings on The Fly who had a shocker of a race under Ruby. My only saving grace was the £15 e-w I also had on ROR.
Would he beat Sizing Europe? As much as I like to think of SS as unstoppable, I’m pretty confident that over 2m at Cheltenham Sizing Europe would still have him.
Sizing Europe is a seriously underrated 2 miler – definitely one of the best of the last 5 years – and he always finds plenty off the bridle. I’m sure that SS would move into the lead travelling strongly and would get SE working a bit, but SE would jump into the lead at the last and get on by 3 or 4 lengths up the hill.
Sizing Europe is bombproof tomorrow. This is the weakest CC we have seen in the last decade.
I’m not so sure the Irish novices are much good so this should be interesting.
I was really taken by Soux Les Cieux the first time I saw him but it’s way too easy to be drawn in by these big flashy chestnut types.
By all accounts he was thought to be head and shoulders above the rest last time going of at 4/9fav.
Cash and Go beat him but so did Dylan Ross who then gets beaten easily by Soux Les Cieux’s stable companion Midnight Game who although well beaten by Soux Les Cieux is probably a better horse than any of them.
Although Soux Les Cieux did take a fair tug early doors he settled a bit after a couple of hurdles and as the race developed Cash and Go wasn’t completely relaxed either.
I thought he won fair and square and Soux Les Cieux found a big fat ziltch.
I’m not convinced he’s top drawer and when you beat a horse that runs below expectations very often you have been flattered.
I do like this Cash and Go’s attitude but would have to back Captain Conan here based on the above thoughts as I do think the Irish horses could prove to be a pretty moderate bunch.
I wouldn’t be breaking into the piggy bank to bet him as there a lot of water between the UK and Ireland and no way of really telling what’s what until they lock horns.
Agreed. Colour Squadron is no slouch, and although the Squadron would have beaten Conan, there wasn’t a great deal in it. 100/30 is looking mighty tasty about now. I really can’t see Squadron getting beat here.
Big Zeb wins today. Sizing Europe wins the QMCC.
Going for a cheeky wee double – Man Utd. and Big Zeb
Any value seekers. You could do a LOT worse than stick in a few hundred on Sizing Europe antepost for the QMCC. A Big Zeb victory is much more likely, but unless it’s very comprehensive (which I would doubt) then SE’s price won’t drift much. If SE wins, the price will half.
GL
Well done Hurdy.
You’ve been having a lot of your short priced winners lately. That’s not a dig, some punters are good at identifying good favourites. Be fascinating to see if they add up in to profit.What about starting another thread on DLAP? Thumbs Up.
Slightly disappointing response that – the reason that I’ve began to frequent this forum is that people are fairly decent and there’s some fair analysis over here.
You’re a very shrewd man Ginger, but that sort of comment showed a lack of class.
What’s wrong?
Please read what I said again Bigger, this time do not presume there is any tongue in cheek at all in my words.
I’d genuinely like to see Hurdy put all his tips in a thread because he seems to have done well with them recently and I believe could add to the Daily Lays And Plays section.Imperial Call used to put a lot of short priced tips up there and did very well indeed with them. He was an excellent tipster but sadly no longer has the time to post. Hurdy could well take his place.
If that was your intention with the comment then fair play, I take back what I said.
Well done Hurdy.
You’ve been having a lot of your short priced winners lately. That’s not a dig, some punters are good at identifying good favourites. Be fascinating to see if they add up in to profit.What about starting another thread on DLAP? Thumbs Up.
Slightly disappointing response that – the reason that I’ve began to frequent this forum is that people are fairly decent and there’s some fair analysis over here.
You’re a very shrewd man Ginger, but that sort of comment showed a lack of class.
I had a wee mug double (How’s Business and the fly) as they were far and away my two best bets of the day. Couldn’t believe it when I collected @ 2/1!
Some real fools out there! Long live the Fly.
Hmm… Very strange ride from Ruby there…
That race does make you wonder how good Bog Warrior is if the form is real.
Totally agree. Blackstairmountain to win – 2/1 looks mighty tasty right now.
Flemenstar will find this tough. His form may look good from his last two races – but the reality is he beat pedestrians on those occasions. Bog Warrior took the piss out of him when they met.
BSM is comfortably better than Notus and BSM’s form is pretty strong I would say. All aboard!
Mon the Rubbbbbyyyyy
High Storm is a consistent enough sort but will find these too much for him.
Magnifique Etoile is a nice looking horse, but this is a mammoth step up in class and Longsdon has admitted the ground won’t suit.
Captain Conan is an unknown and could go either way.
Prospect Wells is a very consistent sort and Sandown is sure to suit. He conceded weight last time and ran on Ok. However, we saw there that his pace is suspect and in a five runner race, pace is everything. I would also say that he probably needs another furlong or too.
Which leaves Colour Squadron. Game as a pheasant dinner. Battled on really well to beat Mountblazon with a bit in hand. Also tanked the well regarded Ericht by 20Lengths whereas PW only managed it by 2.25lengths (though he had an extra 4 pounds on his back).
To get an idea of Colour Sqaudron and Prospect Wells’ respective acceleration, I timed their last two fences at Newbury 17furlongs. Colour Sqaudron, despite the soft ground, ran from the last two fences to the finish 3 seconds quicker than Prospect Wells (good-to-soft). Prospect Wells was carrying 11-5 that day whereas in his race Sqaudron only carried 11-0. However, I think Colour Squadron will just have a bit too much for Nicholls’ mount and will probably make all.
I’m smashing into it @ 2/1
Good luck!
Hey everyone – Happy Christmas!
Hope to make my first post a profitable one
I’m sticking a nifty on Long Run tomorrow and hope to secure at least 11/8
Kauto Star, as much as I love the old boy, won’t win and is as definite a lay as you can get @ 4/1. He probably won’t make it home. Even if he runs as well as he did in the Betfair he won’t win. Kempton is far too sharp a course.
Master Minded won’t stay and the market knows it.
Somersby, Golan Way and Nacarat are irrelevant.
Diamond Harry is overrated on his Hennessy win. He beat a Denman in receipt of 26pounds on soft ground. 158 looks around his mark. However, what he does have to his advantage is that he is pretty uncomplicated. He’ll stay the trip and enjoy Kempton. He didn’t have any excuses against Kauto and Co last time out but he will come on for the run. He looks each-way value.
Captain Chris looks interesting. 7/1 is a shade too big I would say. If Dicky Johnson hadn’t unseated on him last time out I would think he would have won by a couple of lengths. On that basis he looks 165+. However, the big doubt is over whether he stays. My opinion? He probably will but Long Run will just have a bit too much for him.
1). Long Run
2). Captain Chris
3). Diamond HarryBe lucky!
