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Irish Champion Hurdle 2012

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  • #20717
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Hurricane Fly’s for the taking? I would think so but!!!

    The media in a poor effort to create interest claim Nicky Henderson might send Spirit Son to take him on. If you believe that you’ll believe anything.

    I reckon he’ll send Binocular if he is in decent form but no way is Spirit Son who has just done his first bit’s of serious work going there.

    For obvious reasons I would imagine AP will be very keen for a Binocular V Hurricane Fly showdown asap

    Hurricane Fly may just be a half decent price for this if Binny goes.

    #386004
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4704

    Binocular is s**t.

    #386006
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Disgraceful childish post

    #386040
    Hat
    Member
    • Total Posts 11

    For obvious reasons I would imagine AP will be very keen for a Binocular V Hurricane Fly showdown asap

    But they had a showdown at the end of last season and Hurricane Fly laughed at him, and every other horse in the race. Hurricane Fly – IMO – travels too well, stays to well and has a far too potent a turn of foot for any of his current chapion hurdle rivals.

    I do agree though that if even a couple of decent horses turn up to race him, we may get a nice price about Hurricane Fly

    #386060
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4704

    Disgraceful childish post

    Coming from you, that is golden.

    Personally don’t see what’s wrong with my post. I’ve stated a passionate, factual statement.

    #386075
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    For obvious reasons I would imagine AP will be very keen for a Binocular V Hurricane Fly showdown asap

    But they had a showdown at the end of last season and Hurricane Fly laughed at him, and every other horse in the race. Hurricane Fly – IMO – travels too well, stays to well and has a far too potent a turn of foot for any of his current chapion hurdle rivals.

    I do agree though that if even a couple of decent horses turn up to race him, we may get a nice price about Hurricane Fly[/quote

    Binocular had just recovered from an Allergy had missed loads of work and in Nicky’s words; He needed a run but you have to try.

    Oscar Whisky got closer 6 lengths and Nicky reckons he could never win a Champion with him but has 3 others who are all far superior 2 milers.

    If he gets them all to Cheltenham 101% fit it will be a cracking renewal.

    #386139
    del_boy
    Member
    • Total Posts 386

    dont think spirit son would be good enough to take on hurricane fly first time out. and as for binocular, i wouldn’t call him s**t, just not got the speed anymore imo. barely beat rock on ruby.

    #386147
    JAMIEDB9007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 338

    Hurricane Fly the best 2m hurdler around, won’t be beat on his home turf.
    But, you will see a different Binocular come Cheltenham, he’s a different horse round there in March.
    Throw in Spirit Son, Grandouet, Rock on Ruby, Unaccompanied and Zarkandar and it should be the best champion hurdle for quite some time.
    Let’s hope they all manage to line up.

    #386177
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    I have followed Voler La Vedette religiously this term, and she is the one who can shake up Hurricane Fly if the speedster is rusty or is in need of the run.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #386188
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7070

    I think BINOCULAR can win it.Ignore last 2runs last season horse was cleary not at his best.Like Kauto in Ireland last season gave a shocking performance at Aintree and Ireland.Can bounce back here after win at Kempton.

    #386235
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Apparently Ruby was very bullish about Hurricane Fly and thinks he’s in superb form but the last we heard from AP was Binocular still wasn’t right and didn’t have the same zip in his step.

    The thing is AP will want to know before Cheltenham if there is any chance Binocular can beat Hurricane Fly. If he can shake him up in the Irish which is a big if in his current form then he’d have an excellent chance of beating him at Cheltenham.

    If he ran as bad as the last time they met and there’s no sign of improvement within a few weeks of the race or sooner then you would have to assume JP’s phone will ringing and AP will be asking if he can jump ship.

    He’s very keen on Grandouet and the obvious choice to ride him if Binocular is out of sorts and Barry rides Spirit Son which is very likely.

    From a betting point of view Hurricane Fly looks too big at 10/11 especially if Nicky decides not to send anything over. I know WM claimed HF wasn’t right earlier but I’d bet a pound to a penny he has his own agenda and this is exactly where WM wanted to be at this time even if the owner wanted to run him earlier.

    Some owners are short sighted and want to win everything and but a good trainer like WM knows every trick in the book to make sure things are done his way.

    I’ve no hesitation at all in backing Hurricane Fly 10/11

    #386275
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    He’s very keen on Grandouet and the obvious choice to ride him if Binocular is out of sorts and Barry rides Spirit Son which is very likely.

    If

    Spirit Son

    does make it to Cheltenham alongside

    Grandouet

    then Barry WILL ride him,there’s no question about it,he could have ridden

    Sprinter Sacre

    in last years ‘Supreme’ knowing the horse had bags of speed for it as he showed but stuck with the Champion pretender Spirit Son.

    Grandouets

    form through ‘Brampour’ and ‘Overturn’ just lacks the edge required to be a Champion hurdler,his ‘Triumph’hurdle run suggests he’s still a chance of a place mind!

    #386282
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Hurricane Fly will win if in A1 condition.
    Mullins is in remarkably good form (even for him) at the moment. Therefore, if Hurricane Fly is doing well at home (like trainer and jockey believe) he’s doing it against in form horses. All very good signs. 10/11 would be a very good price, but frailties mean he’s not certain to turn up and that is no doubt allowed for in ante-post prices.

    I wouldn’t take a price on anything at this point, value depends on the favourite turning up.

    Value Is Everything
    #386291
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    I wouldn’t take a price on anything at this point, value depends on the favourite turning up.

    Not from an Ante-Post perspective it doesn’t! Some may think the fav IS value at 10/11 and his mere prescence will scare the rest off,he would then go off 1/2 on the day!
    On the other hand the value is to back something now to take him on at twice the price it would be on the day should the ‘Hurricane’ trip over a blade of Grass and miss the race!
    ‘Value’ my dear Gingerbread man is purely in the eye of the beholder!There endeth the lesson! 8)

    #386295
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    I wouldn’t take a price on anything at this point, value depends on the favourite turning up.

    Not from an Ante-Post perspective it doesn’t! Some may think the fav IS value at 10/11 and his mere prescence will scare the rest off,he would then go off 1/2 on the day!
    On the other hand the value is to back something now to take him on at twice the price it would be on the day should the ‘Hurricane’ trip over a blade of Grass and miss the race!
    ‘Value’ my dear Gingerbread man is purely in the eye of the beholder!There endeth the lesson! 8)

    Of course value is "in the eye of the beholder" Gord. Which is why I said "

    I

    wouldn’t take a price" yet. You are right, IF Hurricane Fly does not run all the other horses (

    that run

    ) will be "value", but not as much value as taking that chance should be (in this case). Certainly not "twice the price".

    At this point reading what the trainer and jockey say, Hurricane Fly (and indeed his trainer) is in good form and an intended runner. So backing something against him in the hope the favourite will not run is

    in my opinion

    not the thing to do.

    Comparing over-rounds on Oddschecker of the Irish Champion and another (possible) 12 runner Championship race in January the Victor Chandler Chase (albeit a week earlier)… The BEST prices in the Irish Champion add up to over 143%. BEST prices of the Victor Chandler Chase add up to just under 124%. So bookmakers are using almost double the mark up in the Irish Champion Hurdle betting as the VC. They’ve reduced all the other runners prices by a significant degree purely because they’re scared Hurricane Fly won’t turn up. And who can blame them?

    It is no surprise to me that the two Irish bookmakers are offering prices at such an over-round. Boylesports working to 161.9%!!! If a punter knew Hurricane Fly would not run and backed every other horse with either Irish firm ante-post; he/she would not be able to make a certain profit (even with a 4/6 or 4/5 shot not running). ie Adding up their over-rounds, they add up to over 100% without even including Hurricane Fly. Stan James aren’t far behind with over 99%. So barely breaking even.

    Don’t try to teach the Value Master a lesson Gord! 8) :lol:

    Value Is Everything
    #386336
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    HF I think is 90% certain to run and will go off on the day at around 4/6 or 1.67 – maybe less if the big S doesn’t arrive. So I reckon 1.67/0/9= 1.86 is about right. Evens would be value at present.

    #386377
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    He’s very keen on Grandouet and the obvious choice to ride him if Binocular is out of sorts and Barry rides Spirit Son which is very likely.

    If

    Spirit Son

    does make it to Cheltenham alongside

    Grandouet

    then Barry WILL ride him,there’s no question about it,he could have ridden

    Sprinter Sacre

    in last years ‘Supreme’ knowing the horse had bags of speed for it as he showed but stuck with the Champion pretender Spirit Son.

    Grandouets

    form through ‘Brampour’ and ‘Overturn’ just lacks the edge required to be a Champion hurdler,his ‘Triumph’hurdle run suggests he’s still a chance of a place mind!

    By all accounts his reason last year was simply Sprinter Sacre was the more backward of the 2 and I told you 2 months before the race always going to ride Spirit Son, to the cries of BS, unless by some chance the big horse strengthened up out of the blue which. Actually Nicky said last week he thought the race came a little bit soon for Spirit Son as well just to a much lesser degree.

    I did get the impression it was a bit of wishful thinking on Nickys part as almost ever horse that runs in the Supreme are a bit immature.

    All that has no refection on what Barry will do this year because at this juncture he honestly doesn’t have a clue. Grandouet has improved bundles from last year and after a good rest he’s going to have one more run before Cheltenham. He could easily improve yet again which is going to cause Barry one big headache if he does. Don’t forget Celestial Halo is probably in the best form of his life and this horse was laughing at him before falling. No matter what people think Celestial Halo almost won a Champion and the way Grando was treating him puts him up there with Binocular.

    They say Spirit Son had a minor set back that has kept him off the course so far. The fact is he hasn’t been needed so far this season anyway. He had one gallop then missed his next piece of work so they are no further forward other than his physical appearance on just how much he has improved in comparison to his stable companion.

    Nicky’s response to the question was he could be very special but then Long Run could earn the title of best jumper of a fence if he could jump.

    Spirit Son could be much better the Grandouet or vice versa as things have changed so much in 10 months. Nicky maintains he simply does not know between the 3 which is best. It’s hardly surprising because as he said they are all at different stages at the moment doing different things so they can’t be compared.

    I think I’ve done the sensible thing by backing both at long odds Grandouet ew and the more obvious Spirit Son to win cos really I have less idea than Nicky who seems to have less idea that you who’s the better horse. :mrgreen:

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